Late on Friday night time, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs traded their franchise-tagged cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans.
Let’s take a cautious take a look at all the commerce’s particulars.
The seventh-round picks
Preliminary reporting mentioned the Chiefs would commerce Sneed for the Titans’ 2025 third-round decide and a swap of 2024 seventh-round picks. Late on Friday night time, Sports activities Illustrated’s Albert Breer reported that Tennessee would hand over the earliest of its three seventh-round picks (221) to get Kansas Metropolis’s solely seventh-round choice (252).
So the Chiefs can have the primary decide of the seventh spherical, moderately than the sixth-to-last decide of the seventh. That’s nearly a full spherical (31 spots) earlier.
What does that imply?
In 2023, Kansas Metropolis basic supervisor Brett Veach used a seventh-rounder (250) to herald cornerback Nic Jones. In 2022, he used the seventh spherical to pick cornerback Jaylen Watson (243), operating again Isiah Pacheco (251) and security Nazeeh Johnson (259). In 2020, he took cornerback Thakarius “BoPete” Keyes (237). In 2019, he chosen guard Nick Allegretti (216).
Whereas each have proven promise, it’s simply too quickly to know If the picks for Jones and Johnson will work out. There’s little doubt, nevertheless, that Watson, Pacheco and Allegretti had been hits. So of those six gamers, solely Keyes was a miss — and all of them (save Allegretti) had been taken later than the 221st decide.
The third-round decide
There’s all the time uncertainty about future draft picks; there’s no method to know the place a group’s decide will fall a yr from now. In 2024, the Titans are seventh within the draft order. In 2023, they had been eleventh. The yr earlier than that, they had been 18th. In 2021, they selected twenty second —and in 2020, they picked twenty ninth. Simply by averaging their decide place over these 5 drafts, we might anticipate them to come back in round seventeenth — which might be the 81st decide of the 2025 draft.
And truthfully, that’s an inexpensive expectation for the Titans. They’ve made numerous strikes to enhance this season — however they’ll nonetheless should get previous the Houston Texans to win the AFC South. Houston has additionally taken some important steps within the offseason — and their quarterback is CJ Stroud — not Will Levis.
Some will argue that the Chiefs might have obtained a third-round compensatory decide in 2025 by letting Sneed stroll in free company, moderately than undergo this tag-and-trade course of. That’s true.
However we should do not forget that comp picks should not assured. If Sneed had merely walked, the Chiefs would probably have made a splashy signing throughout free company’s first wave — which by itself might have erased that chance. Even when the Chiefs had then completed nothing else within the free-agent market, the 2025 comp decide couldn’t have been sooner than the 97th choice — and relying on how Sneed carried out in Tennessee (and what different groups did), it’s potential it might even have come someplace across the 132nd decide after the fourth spherical.
So any approach you slice it, this commerce improved the best-case return for Sneed by one thing round 16 draft positions — and doubtlessly by many greater than that.
The commerce worth
In an X put up on Saturday morning, number-crunching NFL analyst Kevin Cole made a worthwhile level.
It’s very onerous to argue the group buying and selling a participant away bought “fleeced” after they’re prepared to commerce the participant to any of 31 groups with the best bid.
Cole had it proper. Sneed’s commerce worth isn’t what the Chiefs, Spotrac, sports activities talk-show hosts or Web consultants (together with Cole and myself) assume it’s. As a substitute, his commerce worth is what 31 different groups will bid it as much as be.
Sure… the Chiefs, native sports-talkers (and also you and I) would have most well-liked to get a third-round decide this season moderately than subsequent season — if not an excellent greater decide in both season. However we will’t ignore what’s proper right here in entrance of us: Sneed merely wasn’t price that a lot.
Partly, this was as a result of he was going to demand a big contract. His new four-year cope with the Titans is price $76 million — together with $55 million assured. That’s $19 million in common annual worth, which now makes Sneed the league’s sixth highest-paid nook. A contract like that may all the time cut back what one other group is prepared to surrender in commerce.
Sneed’s worth was additionally affected by his harm historical past. After being held out of shape for the ultimate weeks of coaching camp with knee irritation, Sneed was listed on the group’s weekly harm report for all however two of 2023’s video games. Whereas he was a full participant in all the group’s practices in 14 of these weeks, a 27-year-old participant who’s persistently receiving therapy for knee irritation goes to boost issues — and we now know the Titans had been anxious about it.
Why? As a result of the commerce was initially reported to be contingent on a bodily.
We will all agree that we hoped — or possibly even anticipated — the Chiefs would get extra on this commerce. However Sneed introduced what the market would bear. Ultimately, a participant taken with the 138th decide of the draft gave his group 4 strong seasons (together with two the place he was among the many league’s finest) earlier than being traded for a decide that’s now prone to be 50 to 60 picks earlier — plus a acquire of a full spherical in worth on one other choice. That’s a win.
The timing
Cole made one different level on Saturday morning.
Timing is the largest concern for maximizing worth. Submit-FA and pre-draft might be the worst.
He was proper about this, too. The extra time that elapsed, the much less Sneed was prone to be price. And opening nearly $19 million in cap house would have been much more helpful earlier than free company started, moderately than after its greatest offers had already been made.
However in keeping with one other X put up on Saturday morning — this one from The Athletic’s Dianna Russini — the Chiefs weren’t dragging their toes.
The Titans and Chiefs nearly had the commerce for L’Jarius Sneed completed on Tuesday March twelfth. Either side labored on commerce compensation and it was nearly full by the afternoon. Titans stored engaged on it and the Chiefs let is play out whereas all the time being superb with preserving Sneed.
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) March 23, 2024
The afternoon of March 12 was the day earlier than the league yr formally started — and when you’ll bear in mind, information first broke that Kansas Metropolis could be visiting the Financial institution of Mahomes for $21.6 million in cap house at 6:25 p.m. (Arrowhead Time) that night.
So the Chiefs all the time supposed to have this deal completed earlier than free company started — and use the cap house they’d acquire for the strikes that they had in thoughts. Because it performed out, Kansas Metropolis was able to do it with 24 hours to spare; it’s simply that the Titans needed to proceed engaged on the main points. That meant the Chiefs needed to go to their backup supply for the cap house.
Will the Chiefs now use that cash for added strikes in free company — or do the very best they will to hold on to most of it for 2025?
One of the best wager is that they’ll do each.
