Chiefs-Chargers NFL Week 14 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Earlier than the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ Week 13 recreation in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders, the predictions made by our panel of Arrowhead Delight contributors averaged out as calling for Kansas Metropolis to win 30-12. It was our worst effort of the season. The aggregated choose had 32 factors of error in comparison with final Friday’s 19-17 ultimate: it missed the purpose unfold by 16 factors, the Chiefs’ rating by 11 factors and the Raiders’ rating by 5 factors. Half of our staffers thought the Chiefs would win in a blowout. To their credit score, solely 20% of our readers agreed. Barely greater than a 3rd accurately predicted a detailed Kansas Metropolis win.

In Week 14, the (11-1) Chiefs face the (8-4) Los Angeles Chargers on GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium. In keeping with FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas Metropolis is favored by 3.5 factors.

Let’s see what the employees — and our readers — take into consideration the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

Whereas I feel this Chiefs staff is taking part in poorly proper now — and I don’t really feel nice about this recreation — I’m undecided I be ok with the Chargers, both. Towards a horrible Atlanta Falcons protection in Week 13, the Chargers completed with 187 yards and 10 first downs. And on this recreation, they’ll be with out Ladd McConkey, who’s their finest large receiver. The Chiefs’ offense will battle, however it is a bounce-back week for the protection.

Chiefs 17, Chargers 13

Eventually, one among these shut video games will end in a Kansas Metropolis loss. However these two groups routinely play video games determined by a single rating — and the Chiefs win most of them. So I don’t assume the single-score loss anticipated by so many observers is approaching Sunday evening. To place it one other method: I’m going to maintain using this horse till it bucks me off. And even then, I’d get again within the saddle. In order they (used to) say in Denver… let’s experience!

Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

It seems like each one among Kansas Metropolis’s current video games has come right down to the wire. This one might not be a lot totally different. Whereas each offenses can gentle up the scoreboard, they’ve been scuffling with consistency. Equally, each defenses have proven flashes of brilliance, however haven’t displayed sustained dominance. This matchup might hinge on the Chiefs’ cornerback Joshua Williams. If he can ship an above-average efficiency, it might tip the scales in Kansas Metropolis’s favor. Search for the Chiefs to lean closely on their floor recreation, controlling the clock and carrying down the opposition. That ought to pave the best way for a hard-fought, slim victory

Chiefs 23, Chargers 17

Kansas Metropolis’s defensive decline has made it laborious to foretell its efficiency. However this matchup in opposition to a Los Angeles offense that likes to lean on its dashing assault must be favorable to the Chiefs — particularly with the Chargers’ No. 1 wideout Ladd McConkey banged up. The large distinction between this recreation and people in earlier weeks? The implications. With a win, Los Angeles might shut Kansas Metropolis’s division result in two video games — and disrupt the Chiefs’ plans for home-field benefit. However, Kansas Metropolis can lock up the division with a victory. I imagine the Chiefs will rise to the matchup, taking part in in addition to they’ve in roughly a month.

Chiefs 30, Chargers 24

If D.J. Humphries can go, he would be the distinction between profitable and dropping. Earlier than being injured final season, he was taking part in at a excessive degree. That mentioned, dealing with Khalil Mack and Bud Dupree represents a tricky option to leap again into the deep finish. If Humphries is 75% of what he was earlier than his damage, then I feel the Chiefs can survive their woes within the secondary and beat this run-first staff. However that’s a giant if. The Chiefs want this win to retain the AFC’s No. 1 seed. I imagine Kansas Metropolis will get it executed.

Chiefs 20, Chargers 17

The Chargers excel at making video games ugly. It’s additionally been a tough month for Chiefs soccer regardless of a (principally) profitable file. I do assume that getting just a little further relaxation will assist the Chiefs in opposition to a Los Angeles staff that’s coming off a bodily taxing win over the Falcons. I count on Kansas Metropolis to attempt to make D.J. Humphries’ debut simpler with a recreation plan targeted on Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt within the operating recreation. Given Los Angeles’ current susceptibility to the bottom recreation, I feel the Chiefs will churn out a slim victory.

Chiefs 20, Chargers 17

At this level, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites — however they not often win video games by greater than a area purpose. Since 2020, Kansas Metropolis has received six one-score video games in opposition to Los Angeles — together with two in time beyond regulation. The Chargers have received two of these as nicely — the final in 2021 — and each had been in Kansas Metropolis. Los Angeles has been surging, profitable 4 of its final 5 to get again within the playoff hunt. It seems like Justin Herbert has settled in together with his new offensive weapons, so this matchup might be enjoyable once more. The Chiefs will attempt to make them one-dimensional, however Herbert might discover loads of open receivers. So I’m anticipating a higher-scoring recreation than we’ve seen not too long ago; I feel each offenses ought to be capable of transfer the ball.

Chiefs 38, Chargers 34

For me, this “Sunday Night time Soccer” matchup is a fork-in-the-road within the Chiefs’ season. And after I say that, I don’t essentially imply Kansas Metropolis has to emerge victorious. There are two key factors I must see: 1) Including D.J. Humphries at left deal with has to work. And a pair of) The secondary should play higher. If we see these items, I feel the staff will rightly really feel like a Tremendous Bowl contender. My prediction relies on seeing not less than one of many two — and since Kansas Metropolis has extra firepower than Los Angeles, I feel that can tip the sport towards the Chiefs. Simply the identical, the Chargers are headed to the playoffs. After shut wins in opposition to two groups that aren’t going there (the Panthers and Raiders), this matchup presents Kansas Metropolis a real measuring stick for his or her postseason readiness. And there’s nonetheless a month to go.

Chiefs 24, Chargers 23

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists count on the Chiefs to win 24-21.

What do you assume?

In Week 13, Jared Sapp’s name for a 24-17 Chiefs win was the closest prediction. With 10 factors of error, it was Jared’s fifth win of the season! John Dixon’s 27-20 choose missed by 16 factors. Everybody else’s prediction had greater than 20 factors of error.

To calculate a prediction’s factors of error, the variations between the prediction and the precise rating in level unfold, dwelling staff rating and away staff rating are added collectively. For instance, a prediction requires a 17-10 Chiefs win. They find yourself profitable 16-10, so there have been two factors of error: the purpose unfold was off by one level, the Kansas Metropolis rating missed by one level and the opponent’s rating was predicted accurately. But when the Chiefs lose the sport 17-10, there have been 28 factors of error within the prediction: the purpose unfold was off by 14 (the distinction between +7 and -7) and each scores missed by 7.