Chiefs-Bills: 5 things to watch in a pivotal AFC showdown

For the eighth time in 5 seasons, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (9-0) will tackle the Buffalo Payments (8-2) in a perennially necessary matchup. This yr’s regular-season bout will happen on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is ready for 3:25 PM Arrowhead time.

It will likely be the Chiefs’ third strive at enhancing on a 9-0 document in franchise historical past. Victory would cement this yr in organizational lore, however it might actually assist in the direction of engaging in the unprecedented job of profitable a third-consecutive Tremendous Bowl.

A profitable Sunday would give the Chiefs a four-game cushion for home-field benefit on Buffalo, the Baltimore Ravens, the Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Pittsburgh Steelers can be the one workforce inside two video games of the highest spot within the convention.

The Payments might shut that margin to only one sport by caring for enterprise at house. That makes this a pivotal second within the Chiefs’ season. Listed below are 5 issues to look at within the battle of AFC contenders:

1. Containing and disrupting Josh Allen

Payments’ quarterback Josh Allen has been one of many NFL’s cleanest passers this season, whether or not having the fifth-lowest interception price amongst full-time starters or being sacked on the lowest price in the identical class.

“He’s doing a fantastic job with the ball,” Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid stated of Allen on Wednesday. “He’s utilizing everyone, and he’s not forcing something in there, clearly. I believe he’s doing nice along with his decision-making.”

The 4 interceptions have come within the final three video games, however all 4 got here inside the construction of the play. Allen has managed chaos nicely this season — rating fifth amongst certified passers in EPA per dropback below stress — as a result of he’s nice at escaping and increasing a disrupted play by throwing or working.

Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wants penetrative move rush, and desires the entrance 4 to corral Allen with out blitz assist. Allen registers a 128.4 passer ranking versus the blitz, with a league-leading 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

“He runs like a fullback,” Spagnuolo described on Thursday. “We all know what we’re in for, we’ve gone in opposition to him fairly a bit, now we have a whole lot of respect for him, now we have our work minimize out with him.”

On move downs, a linebacker will probably regulate Allen because of this. Former Chief Willie Homosexual Jr. primarily dealt with that position up to now.

2. Patrick Mahomes coping with dependable targets

Since extensive receiver DeAndre Hopkins entered the combination, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has discovered a greater rhythm. He has accomplished 72% of his passes during the last three weeks, with six touchdowns to just one interception.

Now extensive receiver Juju Smith-Schuster is ready to return: he was taken off the ultimate damage report, recovered from a hamstring damage suffered in Week 7.

It provides Mahomes three move catchers that may share the sector, all with veteran expertise and toughness to beat disciplined zone protection.

Every is able to find the voids left by extensive receiver Xavier Worthy demanding security consideration, nevertheless it’s simpler stated than performed in opposition to the Payments’ protection.

“[The Bills] do a fantastic job of being actually, actually good at their scheme with nice gamers,” Mahomes famous throughout Wednesday’s press convention. “Then they flip the ball over… to be able to win this sport, we’re going to must play our greatest soccer.”

Coming off a Week 10 efficiency with missed alternatives, Mahomes sees the significance of getting as many dependable choices as doable in opposition to a Buffalo protection that has compelled the second-most turnovers within the NFL (19).

3. Sustaining and ending possessions

The Chiefs have the longest possessions on common within the NFL (3:23), fueled by a run sport that ranks fourth in dashing success price.

These two elements have been already necessary in beating the Payments and conserving the protection contemporary to assault Allen, nevertheless it has turn out to be extra vital that these lengthy drives finish in touchdowns. Kicker Harrison Butker was positioned on Injured Reserve this week. The Chiefs signed Spencer Shrader off the New York Jets observe squad as a alternative.

The efforts of working again Kareem Hunt will probably be relied on to enter scoring place — the Payments enable the third-highest common of dashing yards per carry within the NFL — however the purple zone and goal-to-go offense has to execute. The Payments give up the eighth-lowest landing conversion price contained in the 20-yard line.

4. Attacking the Payments’ offense on first down

The Payments’ offense ranks fifteenth in third-down conversion proportion, a section of the sport the Chiefs must win by forcing third-and-long. Which means creating unfavourable performs and taking part in stout early within the down.

This season, solely two groups have allowed fewer yards per play on first down (4.7) than the Chiefs. The majority of that comes from run protection, which can should be on its A sport in opposition to the Payments’ elusive working again James Prepare dinner. He ranks sixth amongst certified backs in dashing success price.

5. Key matchups for Chiefs’ protection

When Allen does drop again, James Prepare dinner is simply as harmful. 9 of his 20 receptions this season have moved the chains or scored. He would be the precedence for Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties on move downs, particularly as a result of beginning tight finish Dalton Kincaid has been dominated out as a consequence of a knee damage he suffered in final week’s win.

Dawson Knox is a viable substitute and can look to proceed exploiting a Chiefs’ protection that has allowed essentially the most receiving yards to that place this season.

With rookie extensive receiver Keon Coleman already dominated out, all eyes will probably be on veteran extensive receiver Amari Cooper, who’s questionable to play. Chiefs’ high cornerback Trent McDuffie will probably match up with Payments’ slot receiver Khalil Shakir nearly all of the time, so Cooper’s presence may very well be a giant mismatch in opposition to the Chiefs’ hampered cornerback group.