Checking In on the NL MVP Race: Can Anyone Catch Ronald Acuña Jr.?

June 23, 2023, was a tough day for the Braves. They scored 10 runs however gave up 11 in a hard-fought battle with the Reds. It was the primary time they’d given up greater than ten runs all season, and the primary time they’d scored double-digit runs and nonetheless misplaced in over a 12 months. They blew two leads and couldn’t fairly pull off the comeback on the finish of the evening.

But within the grand scheme of issues, June 23, 2023, was an insignificant day for the Braves. By that time within the season, their playoff odds had been 99.5%. Positive, they misplaced the sport, however it was certainly one of solely 4 losses they’d endure all month. They went on to win the sequence and sweep their subsequent two, rising their playoff odds to 100% throughout the week. The Braves have about as a lot motive to fret about losses as I’ve to fret about werewolf assaults. It’s not price agonizing over one thing that solely occurs as soon as in a blue moon.

However for one explicit Courageous, June 23, 2023, was a superb day. Ronald Acuña Jr. went 3-for-5 with a house run and a stolen base. He made an ideal catch, too, overlaying 78 toes in 4.6 seconds to rob Tyler Stephenson of a success. The next morning, he rose to first place within the Nationwide League in WAR, a place he has held ever since.

First place on the WAR leaderboard isn’t essentially meaningfully completely different from second, third, and even fourth. At instances, Acuña’s lead was so slight that you simply had so as to add one other decimal place simply to see it. Nonetheless, main the league for 53 days (and counting) is a formidable accomplishment. Loads of guys can get sizzling and amass a excessive WAR in a brief stretch, however sustaining such a excessive diploma of excellence over eight weeks is one thing else. 4 others occupied second place in that point, and 9 shuffled by way of spots three to 5. However Acuña has but to surrender his lead.

By the All-Star break, Acuña had cemented himself because the clear favourite for NL MVP. He had arguably been the favourite for a lot of the season already, however by that time, it was troublesome to make a case for anybody else. Jayson Stark of The Athletic picked Acuña as his first-half NL MVP. So did Tom Verducci of Sports activities Illustrated, Matt Snyder of CBS Sports activities, and all 47 reporters and analysts MLB.com surveyed for his or her month-to-month MVP ballot. Actually, I’d problem you to discover a single respected supply that picked anybody apart from Acuña; you may not even be capable of discover an nameless troll on Twitter who made the case for anybody else.

For sure, the BBWAA doesn’t really award midseason MVPs. Nonetheless, it’s useful to be the frontrunner this late into the 12 months. As soon as a participant has cemented himself as the favourite, it may be arduous to unseat him. Contemplate among the closest MVP races in latest reminiscence. In final 12 months’s NL race, 9 gamers completed inside one win of the highest spot. However it was Paul Goldschmidt who established himself because the midseason favourite and who in the end took dwelling the {hardware}. It was the same scenario in 2019 in each leagues. Cody Bellinger versus Christian Yelich and Mike Trout versus Alex Bregman made for a few shut races, however it was the midseason favorites, Bellinger and Trout, who got here out on high. It’s a traditional case of primacy bias feeding affirmation bias. People are higher at remembering the primary items of knowledge we encounter. We’re additionally higher at remembering data that helps our preconceived notions. In different phrases, when you get it in your head {that a} explicit participant deserves the MVP, it’s not straightforward to shake that notion.

All that being stated, there’s a significant distinction between an apparent frontrunner and a surefire victor. Shohei Ohtani, for instance, might spend the remainder of the season selecting dandelions within the outfield and nonetheless stroll away because the AL MVP. Conversely, Acuña would in all probability win the NL MVP if the season ended right this moment, and there’s an excellent likelihood he’d win unanimously, too, however that doesn’t imply the competitors is open and shut. With 45 video games left to go within the common season, there’s ample time for a brand new frontrunner to emerge.

Freddie Freeman is within the midst of the perfect full season of his profession. Ignoring his 2020 MVP marketing campaign, his .421 wOBA, .418 xwOBA, and 170 wRC+ are all profession highs. He lately handed his profession excessive in stolen bases, too, and is on tempo to blow previous his career-best 7.1 WAR. He at present sits only a tenth of a win behind Acuña. Suffice it to say, that’s not a major distinction.

Mookie Betts will not be within the midst of a career-best season, however that’s hardly a knock in opposition to him. In spite of everything, he already has a ten.5-WAR marketing campaign on the again of his sabermetric baseball card. Solely two gamers have had a greater season within the twenty first century: Barry Bonds and Aaron Choose. Nonetheless, Betts is having his finest season since 2018, with a .968 OPS and a 159 wRC+. He’s on tempo for 8.2 WAR, which might have led the Senior Circuit in each full season since 2015. He’s been trailing Acuña and Freeman for the previous couple of weeks, however he solely wants one large recreation to take the lead.

Freeman and Betts are Acuña’s greatest competitors, however a couple of extra gamers might enter the race with an enormous efficiency down the stretch. Ha-Seong Kim at present leads the league in bWAR, and whereas he’s a methods behind Acuña, Freeman, and Betts on our leaderboard, he nonetheless ranks sixth within the NL. His case is predicated on his phenomenal protection, nevertheless, and protection alone isn’t sufficient to win an MVP. That stated, if he can proceed to hit at a torrid tempo (he has a 170 wRC+ in his final 51 video games), he might trigger some hassle for the fronrtunners. In the meantime, Bellinger has been on hearth as of late. If he hadn’t missed a month with a knee contusion, he might very effectively be on this race; with 3.9 WAR in 87 video games, he’s enjoying at a 7.3 WAR/162 tempo. He has a 203 wRC+ and an NL-best 2.8 WAR for the reason that begin of July, and if he retains that up, he might make issues attention-grabbing, too.

Corbin Carroll, Sean Murphy, and Fernando Tatis Jr. had been all contenders within the early months of the season, however they’ve fallen off the tempo as of late. Then there are the likes of Matt Olson, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor hanging out within the four-WAR zone. Olson has the perfect shot due to his league-leading 43 dwelling runs and 107 RBI, however he’s nonetheless trailing Freeman and Acuña in most different offensive classes. All three would want to play among the finest baseball of their lives over the subsequent seven weeks to enter the race, they usually’d need to hope the frontrunners cooled off, too. Nonetheless, it’s all throughout the realm of risk. On this date in 2021, Tatis led the NL with 5.2 WAR, with Bryce Harper rating eighth with 4.0 and Soto tenth with 3.8. The latter two would end forward of Tatis in WAR and MVP voting.

WAR is a unbelievable software for this type of dialog; it helps us determine and categorize MVP contenders, and separates the main candidates from these on the surface wanting in — and people and not using a prayer. However on the subject of the fellows on the very high of the leaderboard, it’s crucial to look past WAR. It’s solely an estimate, in any case, and some decimal factors of WAR don’t present a lot helpful data. So now that I’ve recognized the highest contenders, I need to take a better have a look at how they stack as much as each other:

It’s instantly obvious that Acuña and Freeman have the sting offensively, however there are a couple of factors in Betts’ favor. He’s outpacing Freeman in WPA and has a slight lead over Acuña within the context-neutral WPA/LI. On high of that, he has a bonus in among the extra conventional statistical classes; his 31 dwelling runs rank third within the NL, 5 greater than Acuña and eight greater than Freeman. He additionally leads Acuña in RBI, though the variety of voters for whom that issues is dwindling.

Working in opposition to Betts is his hesitancy to swipe an additional bag. He’s a mean runner and constantly a superb baserunner, but he’s stealing much less typically than ever regardless of the brand new guidelines. He’s sooner than Freeman and normally a way more beneficial runner, however this 12 months his Dodgers teammate has stolen twice as many bases, and thus his BsR is considerably greater. Betts was by no means going to compete with Acuña on the bases, however he might need a pair additional decimals factors of WAR if he made higher use of his legs.

As for Freeman and Acuña, it’s clear that they’re neck and neck. Freeman has had barely higher outcomes on the plate, however Acuña has the sting in baserunning, clutch efficiency, and high quality of contact. Personally, I don’t suppose WPA ought to play a job in MVP voting, however I perceive why others disagree. Clutch hitting isn’t a repeatable ability, and WPA is closely influenced by the alternatives a hitter has occurred to have. On the identical time, it does describe how a lot a batter has contributed to his staff’s efforts to win, a wonderfully cheap criterion for a Most Precious Participant award.

Conversely, I acknowledge why anticipated stats are controversial on the subject of awards, however I don’t suppose we must always ignore them fully. They’re not a substitute for every other stat, however they supply context for launch angle and exit velocity, two of a very powerful issues a hitter can management. Acuña and Freeman have had comparable outcomes on the plate this 12 months, however it’s price retaining in thoughts that the previous has made higher high quality contact.

One ultimate level in Acuña’s favor is his strikeout price, the fourth-lowest within the NL and simply the perfect of his profession. Offensive metrics like wOBA and wRC+ take into account every completely different means a batter can attain base, however they don’t distinguish between forms of outs. By and enormous, this doesn’t make a lot of a distinction; each form of out has its execs and cons, in order that they steadiness one another out. WAR, nevertheless, penalizes (or rewards) batters for grounding into double performs by way of BsR, which throws off the mathematics. Acuña strikes out much less typically than Freeman, giving him extra alternatives to make a productive out, and he deserves a bit of additional credit score for that, too.

Now for the protection:

Acuña’s defensive worth depends upon which metrics you like, and in the end, it comes all the way down to how a lot you suppose his glorious arm outweighs his poor jumps and mediocre routes. Issues are less complicated with Freeman: he’s simply a mean first baseman. He isn’t a legal responsibility at first, neither is he offering any worth along with his glove. Acuña and Freeman have the same DEF, however in such a scenario, I’m normally inclined to favor the participant who fields the tougher place.

In the meantime, Betts is the superior defender by most metrics. It’s why he’s on this dialog regardless of having barely worse offensive numbers than his opponents. He has common vary and an above-average arm, and his flexibility is an asset, too. Certainly, the numbers don’t do justice to his versatility. He’s been price -2 OAA at shortstop, however it hardly appears truthful to penalize him for his willingness to fill in at a place of want for his staff. Nobody would maintain it in opposition to him if he collected unfavorable pitching WAR in a blowout, and his 16 video games at shortstop fall into the same class.

If I needed to decide right this moment, I’d go together with Acuña first, Betts second, and Freeman third. It’s impossibly shut, however Acuña and Betts every have a few tie-breaking factors of their favor. Freeman is having a outstanding season too, however the way in which I see it, a slugging first baseman actually has to outslug the competitors to place himself excessive. Fortunately, nobody has to solid a poll simply but. The race is shut sufficient that issues might change virtually day by day down the stretch.