The Boston Celtics have performed the Milwaukee Bucks 4 instances this season. Effectively… that’s what the schedule tells us, not less than. In watching Tuesday evening’s blowout loss in Milwaukee, it felt as if these two groups hardly know one another in any respect.
In a approach, that’s the reality. The 2 groups have put a number of video games within the books, however they’ve seemed totally different each time — typically just a bit bit, typically considerably. No matter which staff you root for, you have got a “yeah, however…” rebuttal you may level to for his or her losses. Yeah, however Giannis was out. Yeah, however it was the second evening of a back-to-back. Yeah, however that was the opposite coach. None of those 4 video games featured each groups at full well being in what you would contemplate their playoff picture — their “ultimate kind,” if you’ll.
The variance is attention-grabbing provided that the Celtics have been a mannequin of consistency this season. It’s one in every of their best attributes because the 62-win staff they’re proper now. They’ve misplaced consecutive video games on simply three events this complete season, with January feeling like the one month they approached an actual stoop — a month wherein they went 11-5. Gamers have shuffled out and in of the lineups attributable to accidents and preventative relaxation, however the entire core contributors moreover Kristaps Porzingis will in the end have appeared in not less than 65 video games.
The place you would most likely set your clock to the Celtics, although, the Bucks have been far much less predictable, and that’s the place this matchup actually will get murky.
Their first assembly appeared the closest to normalcy on the time. The groups had been nearly totally wholesome — Jayson Tatum performed via an sickness — and the Bucks put collectively some fireworks late because the Celtics coughed up a robust lead they’d maintained via a lot of the sport. The late drama was entertaining, however the Celtics had been the higher staff in that recreation. Wanting again, although, these Bucks definitely don’t resemble those the Celtics confronted final evening — we’ll get to that.
The Bucks took the rematch, and had been definitely the higher staff on the ground, profitable in a colossal blowout. Taking part in on the second evening of a back-to-back after battling Minnesota in time beyond regulation the evening earlier than, the Celtics acquired completely blitzed. Milwaukee had their quantity early, ran the lead as much as 37 on the halftime break, and coasted towards the Boston bench unit via the second half. Tatum totaled 16 minutes on the evening; Payton Pritchard performed 31.
Now we introduce a vital wrinkle: the firing of Adrian Griffin. Although Milwaukee’s report sat at a really respectable 30-13, the staff opted to kick their rookie head coach to the curb on the finish of January. The shiny report belied a staff in turmoil, operating units that appeared ill-suited to their personnel and taking part in in need of their potential. Worse, disquiet started to construct within the locker room, with even Giannis Antetokounmpo reportedly turning on the coach he helped rent to start with.
A staff with championship aspirations simply doesn’t have time to attend on a rookie coach to work via these sorts of points. So, out went Griffin and in got here Griffin’s “casual advisor,” a reputation it’s possible you’ll acknowledge: Doc Rivers. Rivers hasn’t added a title ring to his trophy case for the reason that 2008 Celtics, and most would agree that the league has considerably handed him by from a training standpoint. However he’s a steady presence, bringing expertise and not less than a point of sense to the staff’s schemes. It doesn’t damage that he has a popularity as a gamers’ coach. The Bucks didn’t add an Erik Spoelstra tier of coach, however they not less than discovered some readability compared to Griffin’s regime.
Although Rivers has made some cheap, widespread sense choices — most notably, emphasizing the Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard two-man recreation — the outcomes haven’t been there. They’ve been phenomenally inconsistent, undercutting the occasional indicators of life with extra extreme struggles. A six-game profitable streak made it seem as if they’d turned the nook — they adopted it by dropping three of 4. Milwaukee has misplaced as many video games with Rivers on the helm (17) because the Celtics have all season.
So how have the Celtics fared towards the Doc Rivers Bucks? Effectively, they’ve received a recreation by three factors and misplaced a blowout — about the identical, in different phrases. The Celtics squeaked away from the Bucks in late March, blowing an enormous lead (once more) however made performs when it counted to safe the win. The rub: Antetokounmpo didn’t play in that one. That modifications issues a bit.
Then there was final evening. Very similar to the groups’ January assembly, the Bucks pounced on the Porzingis-less, Horford-less Celtics early and by no means seemed again. Boston wasn’t capable of declare the “SEGABABA” (second recreation of a back-to-back) excuse on this one, however maybe they had been capable of declare the “indifference” one. With the highest seed within the NBA locked up and a large 15-game lead over Milwaukee within the standings, the Celtics had little cause to care in regards to the recreation, and so they performed prefer it. Treasured little of what we noticed Tuesday evening is prone to present itself in a possible playoff sequence — Patrick Beverley’s 20 factors maybe least of all.
4 video games up, 4 video games down, with extenuating circumstances in every one in every of them. The place does all of this info go away us? Expensive reader, I do not know.
The Milwaukee Bucks simply really feel unknowable. All the indications of a staff due for a postseason flameout are there. They’ve had teaching turmoil and locker room discontent, and have underwhelmed for nearly all the season whereas barely heading off groups within the Jap Convention like Orlando, New York and Cleveland — the latter two of whom may simply be sitting above the Bucks within the standings proper now if not for unlucky damage points.
And but, it’s nonetheless onerous to close the guide on the Bucks. Few groups ever handle to impress when contending with a lot turmoil, and Milwaukee stays in place to safe residence courtroom benefit via the second spherical of the playoffs all the identical, even when it’s as a lot via attrition as anything. They nonetheless boast one of many very best gamers in basketball — although Antetokounmpo’s calf damage Tuesday evening may very well be consequential — and so they have a battle-tested roster with championship expertise. These are two of probably the most invaluable instruments within the field for a would-be contender. And whereas there may be loads of context so as to add, they did nonetheless outscore the Celtics by 40 within the season sequence.
If the Jap Convention Finals shakes out to be Boston versus Milwaukee, the Celtics are nearly sure to be heavy favorites. That will be true no matter who they play — that’s simply how issues go if you win your convention by 14+ video games. Nothing on paper offers us cause to suppose the Bucks are an extremely severe menace to upset this staff.
Basketball isn’t performed on paper although, and because the Celtics nicely know, something can occur within the postseason. Claiming 100% certainty of something can be silly. In the long run, the one factor we might be pretty assured of is that this: no matter occurs, this common season sequence received’t have ready us for it in any respect.
