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All-Star Week is the standard midpoint of the baseball season — although not the mathematical one – and with the MLB Draft including a bunch of recent prospects to the minors, it’s a superb time to look again on the ZiPS prospect listing from this previous winter. Some prospects have excelled within the majors and a few, effectively, not a lot, however that’s why we name them prospects and never certainties. Decoding minor league statistics correctly has at all times been a problem, however it’s extra so nowadays with an uncommon divergence in offensive ranges between the majors and excessive minors, particularly the Triple-A leagues. An .850 OPS that will have been spectacular within the Worldwide League a couple of years in the past isn’t that mouth-watering nowadays, whereas an ERA round 4 is unusually promising. ZiPS, naturally, has to translate minor league efficiency as a part of predicting how gamers will fare within the majors, and now that we’ve public Statcast information for the minors, there’s much more to dig into in 2024.
For every participant in final winter’s ZiPS High 100, I’m itemizing fast traces for his or her translated minor league efficiency (lower-case m), any main league efficiency, and lastly, a mix of the 2 to get one 2024 line (famous with a c).
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 1-25 Hitters
Participant
Rank
mPA
mBA
mOBP
mSLG
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
cPA
cBA
cOBP
cSLG
Jackson Holliday
2
312
.233
.362
.368
36
.059
.111
.059
348
.213
.336
.332
Jordan Lawlar
3
58
.252
.314
.385
0
.000
.000
.000
58
.252
.314
.385
Jackson Chourio
4
0
.000
.000
.000
300
.243
.294
.384
300
.243
.294
.384
James Wooden
6
231
.301
.386
.468
60
.245
.333
.321
291
.289
.376
.438
Coby Mayo
7
310
.266
.329
.491
0
.000
.000
.000
310
.266
.329
.491
Wyatt Langford
8
11
.194
.248
.194
296
.254
.318
.384
307
.252
.315
.377
Jackson Merrill
9
0
.000
.000
.000
350
.278
.310
.435
350
.278
.310
.435
Evan Carter
10
0
.000
.000
.000
162
.188
.272
.361
162
.188
.272
.361
Carson Williams
11
319
.209
.277
.359
0
.000
.000
.000
319
.209
.277
.359
Masyn Winn
12
0
.000
.000
.000
351
.284
.332
.406
351
.284
.332
.406
Pete Crow-Armstrong
13
117
.224
.259
.409
174
.203
.253
.329
291
.212
.255
.362
Adael Amador
14
253
.167
.272
.236
36
.171
.194
.200
289
.167
.262
.231
Jung Hoo Lee
15
0
.000
.000
.000
158
.262
.310
.331
158
.262
.310
.331
Cole Younger
17
343
.228
.291
.327
0
.000
.000
.000
343
.228
.291
.327
Marcelo Mayer
18
313
.267
.317
.386
0
.000
.000
.000
313
.267
.317
.386
Junior Caminero
20
175
.208
.270
.368
0
.000
.000
.000
175
.208
.270
.368
Jasson Domínguez
21
94
.306
.339
.480
0
.000
.000
.000
94
.306
.339
.480
Roman Anthony
22
289
.204
.286
.340
0
.000
.000
.000
289
.204
.286
.340
Emmanuel Rodriguez
23
175
.219
.356
.417
0
.000
.000
.000
175
.219
.356
.417
Colt Keith
24
0
.000
.000
.000
317
.253
.309
.394
317
.253
.309
.394
Termarr Johnson
25
354
.197
.304
.278
0
.000
.000
.000
354
.197
.304
.278
As I’ve mentioned earlier than, Jackson Holliday would possibly truly be underrated at this level. I acquired numerous complaints in regards to the “bearish” .255/.341/.381 projection for him coming into the season, however ZiPS (and I) shared the idea that individuals had been coming too rapidly on him. He’s nonetheless extraordinarily prone to be a improbable participant, however contemplating he’s a 20-year-old who blasted by 4 ranges of the minors, it’s not the weirdest factor ever that he’d see a consolidation season. That .336/.332 OBP/SLG isn’t actually that far behind his projection, particularly contemplating ZiPS anticipated the key league offensive setting to be higher than it has been this season.
Coby Mayo has had the higher season however nonetheless wouldn’t come near passing Holliday if I rerolled the complete prime prospects proper now. James Wooden truly has surpassed Holliday, although that may solely final till he exceeds the rookie most and sheds his prospect standing; he was legitimately wonderful within the minors this 12 months. The sheen has come off each Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter just a little bit, whereas Jackson Chourio and Masyn Winn have carried out about as marketed. As movers go, Adael Amador and Pete Crow-Armstrong appear like the 2 who will take the largest hit of this group earlier than subsequent 12 months’s rankings (if PCA hasn’t graduated). There hasn’t been as a lot ink about Emmanuel Rodriguez as I’d have anticipated this 12 months, even earlier than he injured his thumb final month. The Texas League, not like the Triple-A leagues, is a reasonably low offensive setting, with a league OPS of simply .705, so his precise 1.100 OPS is fairly spectacular.
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 1-50 Pitchers
Participant
Rank
IP
mBB/9
mK/9
mERA
IP
BB/9
Ok/9
ERA
cIP
cBB/9
cK/9
cERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
74.0
2.07
10.22
2.92
74.0
2.07
10.22
2.92
Shota Imanaga
5
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
97.0
1.48
9.09
2.97
97.0
1.48
9.09
2.97
Ricky Tiedemann
16
16.3
8.22
10.01
6.31
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
16.3
8.22
10.01
6.31
Andrew Painter
19
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
Paul Skenes
30
26.0
2.45
11.91
3.16
66.3
1.76
12.08
1.90
92.3
1.96
12.03
2.26
Kyle Harrison
31
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
86.0
2.83
7.64
4.08
86.0
2.83
7.64
4.08
Noah Schultz
32
50.7
2.01
8.88
4.36
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
50.7
2.01
8.88
4.36
AJ Smith-Shawver
35
35.3
4.18
8.59
5.36
4.3
4.15
8.31
0.00
39.7
4.18
8.56
4.77
Owen Murphy
38
36.7
3.08
9.59
4.22
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.7
3.08
9.59
4.22
Yu-Min Lin
40
48.0
3.32
6.94
4.80
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
48.0
3.32
6.94
4.80
Dylan Lesko
41
57.7
8.02
7.89
6.88
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
57.7
8.02
7.89
6.88
Cristian Mena
45
86.3
3.54
8.04
4.48
3.0
9.00
6.00
12.00
89.3
3.72
7.97
4.73
Tink Therefore
48
53.0
2.80
8.59
4.12
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
53.0
2.80
8.59
4.12
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga have each carried out in addition to ZiPS anticipated. Whereas that’s hardly going out on a limb for Yamamoto, whom everybody appreciated, ZiPS was in on Imanaga very early. Paul Skenes, after all, has been fabulous, much more so than his top-notch translations from April and Could. I’d solely describe two of the pitchers on this listing as unmitigated disappointments to date in 2024, a minimum of from a projections standpoint: Each Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko will take fairly massive hits within the subsequent rankings. Andrew Painter will slide fairly a bit as effectively, however it will be fairly churlish to name a pitcher a disappointment for being injured.
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 26-50 Hitters
Participant
Rank
PA
mBA
mOBP
mSLG
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
cPA
cBA
cOBP
cSLG
Ceddanne Rafaela
26
0
.000
.000
.000
347
.246
.272
.419
347
.246
.272
.419
Samuel Basallo
27
315
.241
.286
.339
0
.000
.000
.000
315
.241
.286
.339
Davis Schneider
28
0
.000
.000
.000
300
.217
.313
.391
300
.217
.313
.391
Jett Williams
29
50
.151
.291
.252
0
.000
.000
.000
50
.151
.291
.252
Edwin Arroyo
33
0
.000
.000
.000
0
.000
.000
.000
0
.000
.000
.000
Brooks Lee
34
136
.295
.341
.447
48
.273
.313
.432
184
.289
.334
.443
Orelvis Martinez
36
269
.215
.283
.407
3
.333
.333
.333
272
.216
.283
.406
Kevin Alcántara
37
271
.246
.286
.334
0
.000
.000
.000
271
.246
.286
.334
Jeferson Quero
39
1
.000
.742
.000
0
.000
.000
.000
1
.000
.742
.000
Brayan Rocchio
42
0
.000
.000
.000
277
.210
.305
.303
277
.210
.305
.303
Jace Jung
43
323
.221
.322
.393
0
.000
.000
.000
323
.221
.322
.393
Harry Ford
44
338
.218
.307
.318
0
.000
.000
.000
338
.218
.307
.318
Dylan Crews
46
309
.238
.288
.360
0
.000
.000
.000
309
.238
.288
.360
Jonatan Clase
47
280
.233
.302
.381
39
.184
.205
.211
319
.226
.290
.358
Curtis Mead
49
259
.236
.293
.387
93
.218
.269
.276
352
.231
.287
.357
Jorge Barrosa
50
149
.228
.279
.346
10
.200
.200
.300
159
.226
.274
.343
Amongst this tranche of prospects, Brooks Lee is having arguably probably the most spectacular 2024, and he’s continued to hit since his call-up a few weeks in the past. Between Lee and the Twins’ taking Kaelen Culpepper with their first-round decide on Sunday, Edouard Julien would possibly get misplaced within the shuffle rapidly in Minnesota; if I had been a GM of a workforce in want of a second baseman, I’d give the Twins name to see if he can rule once more on my membership. Anyway, I truly anticipated ZiPS to come back round faster on Dylan Crews, however he’s probably not torching minor league pitching as I believed he would. Davis Schneider has lengthy been a ZiPS favourite, however he’s cooled off since a scorching run proper after he earned extra taking part in time by the method of elimination in Toronto’s struggling lineup.
Jett Williams inevitably will drop significantly after a wrist harm ruined his 2024 season, and Kevin Alcantára was one of many massive ZiPS droppers when it comes to future WAR. Whereas Samuel Basallo is just not matching his breakout 2023 season, he’s nonetheless a 19-year-old catcher, so he gained’t sag within the rankings too far.
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 51-100 Pitchers
Participant
Rank
IP
mBB/9
mK/9
mERA
IP
BB/9
Ok/9
ERA
cIP
cBB/9
cK/9
cERA
Anthony Solometo
51
30.7
6.03
5.00
5.98
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.7
6.03
5.00
5.98
Mitch Bratt
54
63.3
2.24
6.58
4.91
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
63.3
2.24
6.58
4.91
Robby Snelling
58
68.3
4.02
6.00
5.74
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
68.3
4.02
6.00
5.74
Michael Kennedy
62
50.7
1.97
6.53
5.38
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
50.7
1.97
6.53
5.38
Hurston Waldrep
69
54.0
2.88
7.06
4.51
7.0
10.29
3.86
16.71
61.0
3.73
6.69
5.91
Jackson Jobe
70
31.7
4.88
9.30
4.11
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
31.7
4.88
9.30
4.11
Drew Thorpe
71
52.7
2.85
6.70
4.05
32.7
4.13
5.23
3.58
85.3
3.34
6.14
3.87
Tekoah Roby
73
34.0
3.08
6.06
5.47
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
34.0
3.08
6.06
5.47
Rhett Lowder
74
73.0
2.11
6.57
5.18
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
73.0
2.11
6.57
5.18
Jordy Vargas
75
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
Dax Fulton
84
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mick Abel
85
67.3
6.37
6.76
5.82
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
67.3
6.37
6.76
5.82
Luis Morales
87
40.0
4.29
6.52
5.18
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
40.0
4.29
6.52
5.18
Carson Whisenhunt
88
77.7
4.31
8.90
4.89
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
77.7
4.31
8.90
4.89
Caden Dana
89
81.7
3.31
7.27
4.65
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
81.7
3.31
7.27
4.65
Marco Raya
93
49.0
4.66
8.52
5.05
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
49.0
4.66
8.52
5.05
Chase Petty
95
73.3
4.28
5.99
5.58
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
73.3
4.28
5.99
5.58
Cade Horton
97
32.3
3.29
8.38
4.71
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
32.3
3.29
8.38
4.71
Bubba Chandler
98
58.7
3.30
8.38
4.32
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
58.7
3.30
8.38
4.32
Jagger Haynes
99
56.7
6.80
5.92
6.16
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
56.7
6.80
5.92
6.16
Thomas Harrington
100
56.0
1.42
7.03
3.96
0.0
0.00
0.00
0.00
56.0
1.42
7.03
3.96
this group’s long-term projections, it’s virtually surprising how little motion there’s been within the long-term projections. Of those 21 pitchers, solely three have had their five-year projected WAR transfer by greater than two WAR. The primary is Drew Thorpe, who was stable for Birmingham, and his poor Ok/BB ratios within the majors to date most likely aren’t consultant of his skills. The opposite is a a lot much less heralded prospect, Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, a slightly Doug Fister-y prospect (is {that a} authorized adjective), who depends on management and changeups. The excessive minors could be merciless for this sort of pitcher, however he’s survived a minimum of one of many jumps, to Double-A, which improves his long-term outlook. On the flip aspect, Mick Abel’s command has continued to deteriorate, with each a seven-walk and a six-walk outing within the final month. It will be a shock if he didn’t fall utterly off the ZiPS High 100 for 2025.
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 51-75 Hitters
Participant
Rank
PA
mBA
mOBP
mSLG
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
cPA
cBA
cOBP
cSLG
Noelvi Marte
52
53
.146
.146
.162
67
.175
.209
.254
120
.162
.181
.212
Marco Luciano
53
276
.224
.321
.306
27
.375
.444
.542
303
.237
.332
.327
Colson Montgomery
55
346
.177
.266
.276
0
.000
.000
.000
346
.177
.266
.276
Edgar Quero
56
318
.226
.292
.354
0
.000
.000
.000
318
.226
.292
.354
Nolan Schanuel
57
0
.000
.000
.000
365
.238
.323
.349
365
.238
.323
.349
Joey Ortiz
59
3
.000
.226
.000
269
.264
.369
.432
272
.262
.368
.427
Kyle Manzardo
60
209
.246
.328
.447
87
.207
.241
.329
296
.234
.302
.411
Jud Fabian
61
316
.201
.259
.302
0
.000
.000
.000
316
.201
.259
.302
Ethan Salas
63
297
.158
.231
.216
0
.000
.000
.000
297
.158
.231
.216
Bryan Ramos
64
230
.185
.229
.265
48
.196
.208
.239
278
.187
.226
.260
Ronny Mauricio
65
0
.000
.000
.000
0
.000
.000
.000
0
.000
.000
.000
Kyle Teel
66
294
.263
.329
.370
0
.000
.000
.000
294
.263
.329
.370
Jorbit Vivas
67
202
.211
.321
.313
0
.000
.000
.000
202
.211
.321
.313
Danny De Andrade
68
117
.206
.277
.287
0
.000
.000
.000
117
.206
.277
.287
Andy Pages
72
73
.308
.374
.554
313
.257
.307
.399
386
.266
.320
.428
It hasn’t proven but within the majors, however Kyle Manzardo’s minor league efficiency this 12 months earlier than his call-up worn out the actual “meh” feeling that ZiPS had about his 2023. Put up-suspension Noelvi Marte has been fairly awful, although we’ve sufficient information from gamers after drug suspensions to dismiss any histrionics that he’s struggled due to the dearth of efficiency enhancement. Final 12 months was largely the season that ZiPS got here round on Colson Montgomery after being later than virtually everybody/every thing else, and the outcome has been just a little how I really feel after consuming a scorching canine from a gasoline station. Joey Ortiz is the large winner on this group, contending for the NL Rookie of the 12 months award, and Kyle Teel should see a bump in subsequent 12 months’s prospect rankings as effectively. Like Basallo, Ethan Salas’ bat has backslid a bit, however it’s not value obsessing over how a teenage catching prospect is hitting. Andy Pages hasn’t matched his minor league begin this 12 months, however he’s been a minimum of respectable.
ZiPS High 100 Prospects – 76-100 Hitters
Participant
Rank
PA
mBA
mOBP
mSLG
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
cPA
cBA
cOBP
cSLG
Nick Yorke
76
334
.251
.314
.355
0
.000
.000
.000
334
.251
.314
.355
Jared Serna
77
366
.205
.272
.332
0
.000
.000
.000
366
.205
.272
.332
Matt Shaw
78
304
.212
.290
.318
0
.000
.000
.000
304
.212
.290
.318
Sal Stewart
79
338
.222
.304
.342
0
.000
.000
.000
338
.222
.304
.342
Juan Brito
80
402
.218
.312
.343
0
.000
.000
.000
402
.218
.312
.343
Carlos Jorge
81
321
.173
.215
.290
0
.000
.000
.000
321
.173
.215
.290
Michael Busch
82
0
.000
.000
.000
336
.271
.357
.466
336
.271
.357
.466
Justin Foscue
83
118
.232
.361
.383
2
.500
.500
.500
120
.237
.363
.385
Heston Kjerstad
86
258
.257
.334
.459
60
.314
.417
.529
318
.268
.349
.472
Darell Hernaiz
90
23
.160
.235
.280
75
.182
.243
.182
98
.177
.241
.205
Luisangel Acuña
91
393
.227
.268
.296
0
.000
.000
.000
393
.227
.268
.296
Angel Martínez
92
123
.258
.342
.395
56
.277
.382
.468
179
.263
.355
.418
Bryan Rincon
94
114
.156
.249
.270
0
.000
.000
.000
114
.156
.249
.270
Nacho Alvarez Jr.
96
321
.259
.335
.347
0
.000
.000
.000
321
.259
.335
.347
Heston Kjerstad simply missed the general ZiPS gainers listing, but given Baltimore’s crowded offense, he’s nonetheless had bother getting a full serving of plate appearances within the majors. If the O’s land Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, Kjerstad needs to be one of many names prone to be included, particularly for the Tigers contemplating they’re much extra motivated so as to add main league-ready expertise than the hopeless Sox. ZiPS was as massive fan of Michael Busch, a type of low-ceiling, high-floor hitters with none actual positional worth, and he’s carried out about as effectively for the Cubs as might have fairly been anticipated.
ZiPS hoped for extra energy from Matt Shaw, and he’ll most likely drop from the highest 100 until his trajectory modifications once more. However he gained’t drop so far as Luisangel Acuña, who has solely a 73 wRC+ in Triple-A, although the Mets don’t truly appear upset together with his efficiency. Whilst offense is up throughout Triple-A, Angel Martínez was having a dynamite season earlier than he was referred to as up; you shouldn’t dismiss a 147 wRC+ at Triple-A and not using a fairly compelling cause. He’s additionally continued to hit within the majors, and I now really feel kinda responsible that I didn’t give ZiPS some new RAM to reward it for being so excessive on him coming into the season.