Final Combating Championship (UFC) Middleweight grapplers Caio Borralho and Paul Craig will throw down this weekend (Sat., Could 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301
No. 14-ranked Caio Borralho has separated himself from the 185-pound pack for a quite simple cause: he’s fairly good, and most Middleweights aren’t. He might not at all times be an exciting watch, however Borralho has a well-rounded ability set, nice conditioning, and the flexibility to really comply with a sport plan.
Craig makes for the right foil, as a result of he’s unhealthy by a number of goal metrics. In fact, that hasn’t stopped him from defeating former and future champions like Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua! Craig is uniquely harmful, and he can by no means be really counted out of a battle regardless of his apparent flaws.
Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:
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Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig Betting Odds
Caio Borralho victory: -540
Caio Borralho by way of TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Caio Borralho by way of submission: TBD
Caio Borralho by way of resolution: TBD
Paul Craig victory: +340
Paul Craig by way of TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Paul Craig by way of submission: TBD
Paul Craig by way of resolution: TBD
Odds by way of DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Borralho Wins
Caio Borralho is a brilliant and tactical fighter. He makes use of a karate-style stance and motion to keep up distance, scoring kicks and occasional counter punches. More often than not, he’s ready for a second to time his athletic double leg, and he’s a black belt on the ground.
There’s a transparent cause that Borralho is such a big favourite: he’s simply higher. He’s the sharper kickboxer by a transparent margin, the superior wrestler, and Borralho’s jiu-jitsu is excellent in its personal proper. He has the ability to grapple with Craig and keep away from the triangle, notably since everybody is aware of that’s Craig’s ace within the gap.
In his final bout, Borralho let Abus Magomedov tire himself out a bit then actually upped the strain and quantity within the second. The same sport plan appears smart right here, in that Borralho can slowly beat up Craig then flip up the aggression as Craig begins to really feel the punishment. Borralho wants finishes to climb the ladder shortly and shed his boring popularity — this can be a good opponent for these targets.
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How Craig Wins
I say this with love: Paul Craig is without doubt one of the wonkiest fighters on the roster. His kickboxing sport is inconsistent, his protection isn’t nice, he at all times falls to his knees when taking pictures double leg takedowns — but he has a genuinely nice resume and has labored into the High 10 in two separate divisions.
Scottish magic, maybe? Craig doesn’t stop, and he’ll flip a small opening right into a damaged arm actual fast.
Match ups by no means look good for Craig on paper, however this isn’t an unattainable battle for him. Borralho isn’t a fearsome puncher, so Craig can really feel extra snug in advancing behind combos and kicks. We haven’t actually seen Borralho’s takedown protection examined, so maybe Craig can certainly muscle him to the ground.
If not, Craig hits moderately arduous. At worst, his aggression most likely attracts a takedown from Borralho, which at the very least will get Craig to the ground the place he needs to be.
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Borralho vs. Craig Prediction
My prediction might be pretty apparent at this level.
Barring a sudden Craig triangle choke — at all times potential! — Borralho ought to win this battle in all places. He’s youthful, higher, and on the rise. He has the talents and smarts to maintain himself out of hassle whereas nonetheless delivering an ass-kicking. Very similar to Brendan Allen did in Craig’s final battle, Borralho ought to have the ability to beat his opponent up wherever the battle goes, and the specter of the submission subsides after a specific amount of punches land.
The Brazilian ought to thoughts his P’s and Q’s, however this can be a stylistic layup.
Prediction: Borralho victory (-540)
