Bucs Top WRs Not Likely To Be Traded

With Tom Brady’s Feb. 1 retirement, the Bucs’ Tremendous Bowl window seemingly slammed shut. However as Pewter Report has outlined loads of occasions (right here, right here and right here), that doesn’t imply Tampa Bay is getting into outright tank mode – particularly not in an extremely weak NFC South.

The Bucs simply aren’t going to have any curiosity in punting on the 2023 season earlier than it even begins. However that doesn’t imply it’s not going to be a continued dialogue all through the offseason in a single trend or one other, particularly on condition that the crew at present sits about $55 million over the wage cap. Recently, the car that many analysts and followers alike are utilizing to drive the “Bucs are tanking” discourse is the concept of Tampa Bay buying and selling one in every of its prime two receivers, both Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

On the floor, it’s comprehensible that it is a speaking level proper now. However whereas it’s little bit of enjoyable for followers who need their groups to land a prime receiver – and analysts who wish to see prime expertise in larger markets – it’s simply not going to be a actuality this offseason. And right here’s why.

Parting Methods Evans Or Godwin Isn’t Price The Payoff For The Bucs

The explanation Evans and Godwin are discovering their names circulating in commerce hypothesis is twofold. For one, it’s the concept that the Bucs aren’t going to be a contender once more any time quickly, that means they’ll wish to promote excessive and construct up draft capital to construct for the long run. And secondly, it’s Tampa Bay’s cap scenario. Sending Evans or Godwin elsewhere by way of commerce would internet the crew some much-needed cap house. However the truth of the matter is, it doesn’t make sufficient of a distinction cap-wise for a transfer of this magnitude to be value it.

The crew hypothetically buying Evans in a commerce would assume $13 million of his wage. Due to how scarce the broad receiver free company market is mixed with the truth that the draft class doesn’t appear to have a Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson sort, there’s lots of worth there. So, the Bucs would ask for lots in a commerce for Evans. However is there sufficient of a profit for them to think about it?

Evans is getting into the ultimate yr of his contract, and he’s carrying a $23,698,500 cap hit for 2023. The Bucs would save themselves from that cap hit in the event that they traded him, however they’d additionally eat $21,396,500 in useless cash. Meaning buying and selling the perfect offensive participant in franchise historical past would internet the Bucs simply $2,302,000 in cap financial savings.

Is that value it? Not when you think about how powerful it will be for Tampa Bay to switch him. The crew could be swapping out a nine-time 1,000-yard receiver and four-time Professional Bowler for an inexpensive veteran or a rookie. Each little little bit of cap reduction helps with the scenario the Bucs are in, however on this case, it’s simply not value it. And that’s earlier than even entering into the sentimental impression such a transfer would have on the locker room, in addition to the fan base.

The scenario with Godwin is an analogous one. He’s carrying a $23,750,000 cap hit for 2023, however the Bucs would eat $15 million in useless cap in the event that they had been to commerce him, which implies the web achieve is $8.75 million. Now, that’s a heftier chunk of cap house Tampa Bay could be creating, however many of the knocks in opposition to an Evans commerce laid out above apply to Godwin as properly.

The soon-to-be 27-year-old simply signed a three-year contract extension in 2022, and changing him could be a lot expensive. It’s unlikely that Tampa Bay might exchange his manufacturing, particularly with an $8 million receiver or a draft choose. It will be a chance, to say the least. In his return from the torn ACL he suffered on the finish of the 2022 season, Godwin surpassed 1,000 yards and completed with the second-most catches in a single season in Bucs historical past in 2023. He was rounding into pre-injury type simply because the season got here to an finish, too.

So, if the largest motive to commerce Evans or Godwin is the cap reduction such a transfer would offer and stated cap reduction actually isn’t vital sufficient to offset the lack of manufacturing from both participant, it’s must be a non-starter. It will be extra value it for the Bucs to discover a contract extension with Evans and create some house that method or strategy Godwin for a restructure. Going that route is the easiest way for Tampa Bay to remain aggressive – because it hopes to do – whereas drawing nearer to cap compliance.

Tampa Bay Already Has Sufficient Holes On Its Roster As It Is

Fairly frankly, the Bucs have sufficient issues as it’s. They don’t want “exchange a prime receiver” on their to-do checklist this offseason. They already want a brand new quarterback. They’re already set to lose 5 of their prime seven defensive backs to free company. A choice should be made on longtime captain Lavonte David. And as cap cuts are made, the Bucs might quickly have vacancies to fill at left sort out, operating again, tight finish and kicker.

As Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has stated a number of occasions because the crew’s season-ending loss to the Cowboys final month, the purpose this offseason is to reload reasonably than rebuild. Now, management for each crew in transition goes to say that. Nevertheless it stands to motive that Bowles, common supervisor Jason Licht and the Bucs brass is working that method.

Because the Bucs look to reload, doing so with two prime receivers on the roster will make life a lot simpler for whoever steps in for Brady at quarterback. Actually, Evans and Godwin, together with Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs make up a robust core for Tampa Bay’s offense. The trail again to competing – within the division, the convention and the league – is far simpler with that core in place.

The Bucs Aren’t Going To Voluntarily Bounce Into Tank Mode

There are many the reason why Tampa Bay gained’t play for a prime choose within the 2024 Draft. The primary one, although, is that it simply doesn’t work that method. “Tanking” is way more of an offseason speaking level, not less than till we get late into the common season. When a crew is clearly uncompetitive and finds itself in play for a top-five choose within the closing weeks of a season, that’s when a tank would possibly truly go into impact. Suppose the Bucs pulling starters at halftime in Week 17 of the 2014 season after which promptly blowing their result in the Saints en path to the No. 1 general choose, for instance.

Going into 2023, the Bucs aren’t planning to be uncompetitive. An NFL profession can come and go in a yr, so think about asking guys within the prime of their careers like Wirfs, Vita Vea, Devin White and Calrton Davis to exit and tank. It wouldn’t go properly, to say the least. To not point out, the NFC South was the worst division in soccer final yr and seems primed to retain that standing in 2023. So, if the Bucs will be extra environment friendly on offense with new coordinator Dave Canales, retool the protection and marry each side of the ball collectively, they’ll really feel they’ll three-peat as division champions by beating out the Saints, Panthers and Falcons.

Now, simply because the Bucs gained’t got down to tank doesn’t imply they’ll be crew. They could very properly be a foul crew and head towards a prime choose in 2024. However they’re not buying and selling both of their prime two receivers in an effort for that to turn into a actuality.

Take into consideration the ramifications of such a transfer and the message it sends, too. The Glazers absolutely don’t have any curiosity of their crew returning to its earlier type. Buying and selling a fan favourite receiver in the identical offseason that the best quarterback of all time retired wouldn’t be acquired very properly inside the fan base, particularly for the season ticket holders who had been locked right into a two-year dedication final offseason.

One Receiver Is Possible On His Approach Out, However It’s Not Evans Nor Godwin

As a lot speak as there’s about buying and selling Evans or Godwin to create some cap house, the likelier transfer for the Bucs entails one other broad receiver. Russell Gage, who signed a three-year, $30 million contract with Tampa Bay final offseason, could also be a cap casualty this offseason after a disappointing debut season with the Bucs. The previous Atlanta Falcon regarded good early on in coaching camp final summer season, however a hamstring harm set him again and impacted him for a lot of the season.

Chopping Gage would save the Bucs $2.8 million in cap house and whereas that’s been the primary speaking level concerning the potential transfer, the larger motive to half methods with him comes with the assured cash he’d be owed if he sticks round for 2023. Gage’s contract with Tampa Bay included $20 million in ensures, with $15 million absolutely assured at signing.

Now, if he’s on the roster on the third day of the brand new league yr, the remaining $5 million turns into absolutely assured as properly. Meaning his 2023 useless cap hit could be bigger than the cap hit could be in the event that they let him go. Moreover, the Bucs may wish to save the $10 million in money they might owe him for the season. And by releasing Gage now versus subsequent offseason, they might be cleansing up their 2024 books, as all of Gage’s prorated cap prices would speed up to 2023 and he would characterize zero useless cash in 2024.

It’s way more believable to count on the Bucs to chop Gage whereas extending Evans’ contract and/or restructuring Godwin’s deal this offseason. A commerce for both of their prime two receivers shouldn’t be on the desk – and it seemingly gained’t be.