To say the Bucs season has been a rollercoaster to date could be fairly the truthful evaluation. And they’re solely 5 video games into the marketing campaign. Thus far just one recreation has seemingly gone “to plan.” Tampa Bay’s Week 1 victory over the Washington Commanders didn’t rock the soccer world.
Since then, the Bucs have skilled highs and lows on a week-in, week-out foundation that may give an EKG for a affected person with tachycardia a run for it’s cash. A shocking win in Detroit, adopted by a flat efficiency towards Denver. Then Tampa Bay rounded out their present 3-2 schedule with a powerful win over the Eagles earlier than collapsing late towards the Falcons.
The inconsistent nature of the workforce’s game-by-game outcomes paired with the relative brevity of the season to date can result in overreactions by way of what is correct, and mistaken, with the present composition of the workforce in addition to the close to and long-term outlooks of every place group. So, with 30% of the common season within the books I needed to check out every place group by means of each a brief and long-term lens whereas the Bucs attempt to get wholesome on their mini bye following an emotional Thursday Evening Soccer recreation.
Right now we’ll have a look at the large receivers and tight ends. Tomorrow will function the offensive and defensive traces.
Extensive Receiver
Only a few pass-catching duos are as productive because the Mike Evans/Chris Godwin tandem. By 5 video games the Bucs prime two receivers are averaging a mixed 2.07 yards per route run. That’s seventh within the NFL among the many prime two route runners for every workforce. And Evans and Godwins mixed 132.4 receiving yards per recreation is sixth most within the league.
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photograph by: Cliff Welch P/R
The 2 have complimentary talent units that enable one another to thrive and Coen has an actual knack for using the 2 effectively. Godwin is experiencing a profession renaissance of kinds, as he’s on tempo for 109 catches for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. In the meantime, Evans is a bit off his annual 1,000-yard tempo, however he’s averaging a landing per recreation and has over 150 yards in his final two video games.
Key Stat: 0.8
Past these two, issues get extra fascinating. Rookie sensation Jalen McMillan scored a landing within the season opener however was largely quiet over the following two video games earlier than lacking Weeks 4 and 5 as a result of damage. However previous to damage he was struggling to combine into the Bucs offense. His 0.8 yards per route run is at the moment ninth of 12 gamers who’ve run a route for the Bucs this season. He has caught simply 50% of his six targets and struggled to assist in the run recreation as an add-on blocker.
Trey Palmer noticed extra appears in Week 4, making an inconceivable catch for a landing early within the Eagles recreation. Palmer would depart early from that recreation with an damage of his personal. In his restricted work this yr Palmer has seemed higher than the rookie McMillan and his effectivity metrics appear to agree. Palmer leads McMillan in yards per route run, catch charge, catch charge over anticipated and goal charge.
However probably the most intriguing possibility for the Bucs at this level is Sterling Shepard. The previous Large has all the time been a proficient receiver. He’s simply struggled with well being and mis-assignment of function. After being known as upon following Palmer’s damage he has proven probably the most tantalizing potential as a further layer to the Bucs receiving corps, catching 4 passes for 55 yards and a landing over simply 55 routes.
Quick And Lengthy-Time period Outlooks
Within the quick time period, the Bucs ought to prioritize offensive effectivity. Now that Sterling Shepard is on the energetic roster, he ought to be included within the majority of the three receiver units going ahead. Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan ought to see some however restricted motion if all receivers are wholesome. That’s to not say the Bucs ought to quit on both younger cross catcher. Each have promise however aren’t as ready to assist the offense as Shepard proper now.
This place group may see main turnover within the subsequent 17 months. Chris Godwin is a pending free agent, and his present stage of play would have him price $28 million per season or extra on his subsequent contract. The Bucs could decide to maintain the rejuvenated receiver, however it can possible require appreciable sources.
If they don’t retain Godwin, Palmer or McMillan would wish to take an enormous step ahead subsequent season. Given his rapport with Baker Mayfield and scant-other gamers needing massive investments subsequent yr, I’d advocate for shelling out the cash to maintain Godwin. And with Mike Evans set to show 32 subsequent August, there is no such thing as a true “X” receiver to step into that function if and when he strikes on. Receiver might be excessive on the Bucs’ precedence record come subsequent low season.
Tight Finish
Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photograph by: USA Right now
Cade Otton’s 2024 marketing campaign has gone very similar to the 2 seasons that preceded it. Some truthful strong, however unspectacular play as a receiver interspersed with some extraordinarily inconsistent blocking. And whereas the blocking is best this yr, his inconsistencies appear to indicate up on the worst attainable instances.
Amongst 21 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fifteenth in goal charge, seventeenth in yards per route run, ninth in yards after catch per reception and tenth in catch charge. He would work greatest as a fourth or fifth possibility in an offense. Proper now, he’s third in targets for the Bucs. That has to alter.
Payne Durham has been used sparingly this yr, enjoying only a quarter of the offensive snaps and working simply 15 routes. That has left Otton to play an unimaginable 94% of the workforce’s offensive snaps.
Key Stat: 4.3%
Cade Otton’s yards after catch per reception rank is sort of excessive as a result of simply 4.3% of his targets have been over 10 air yards on the season. Evaluate that to 24.5% in 2023 and 21.7% in 2022. Liam Coen is clearly utilizing Otton in a unique method than former offensive coordinators Byron Leftwich and Dave Canales did. And the outcomes are marginally improved.
However Otton isn’t a difference-maker. He can pop right here and there for a couple of catches, however he’s not the amount driver that may maintain the offense if Chris Godwin or Mike Evans have been to go down – even for a recreation.
Quick And Lengthy-Time period Outlooks
Cade Otton is the clear starter for the remainder of the season and not one of the gamers behind him are viable choices to supplant. Otton is neither a optimistic nor damaging modifier. He’s satisfactory.
However subsequent season the workforce must make a concerted effort to improve their third possibility within the passing recreation. In principle, the tight finish place isn’t an enormous a part of the passing recreation and shouldn’t be one which requires a big funding. With that mentioned, Otton is a low-end starter who in all probability profiles extra as an excellent No. 2.
If the Bucs can discover or develop a top quality third receiver, then he’s a wonderfully positive possibility to complete his rookie contract because the beginning tight finish. However Jason Licht and the entrance workplace can actually open up the creativity jar by seeking to improve Otton and preserve the tight finish because the third-most voluminous possibility in the event that they so need.
