Bryce Harper Is Finally Crushing the Ball Again

Whereas Bryce Harper made the quickest return from Tommy John surgical procedure of any place participant on document, it got here with a value. Not surprisingly, he didn’t hit the ball as onerous as typical within the early months of his return, or do as a lot harm as a result of he wasn’t elevating it with consistency. At one level, he went 166 plate appearances and not using a residence run, the longest drought of his profession, however even then, he remained a fairly productive hitter. These days he’s been heating up, crushing the ball whereas serving to the Phillies climb to the highest of the NL Wild Card race.

Within the fourth inning of Monday night time’s recreation towards the Angels in Philadelphia, Harper demolished a Lucas Giolito fastball that was taking part in in the course of the street:

The homer — a 111.9-mph scorcher with a projected distance of 429 toes — was Harper’s fourth in a seven-game rampage, throughout which he’s hit .500/.613/1.037. It was his eighth homer of the month, his highest whole since he hit 9 in September/October 2021 (and 10 in August of the identical season) en path to his second MVP award. He maxed out at seven homers in Could of final season, the month he was identified with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his proper elbow.

To be honest, Harper’s August 21 homer, an inside-the-parker, most likely ought to have been scored as a double or triple plus an error on Giants heart fielder Wade Meckler:

Statcast says that given the essential specs on that shot — 101 mph off the bat at a 28-degree launch angle and a projected distance of 405 toes — it will have been a homer in 13 of the 30 ballparks, which is to say that he’s definitely hit cheaper ones. He now has 13 homers this 12 months, with three coming in Could however none in June and solely two in July. After homering on Could 25, he went 38 video games (37 begins) earlier than including one other within the nightcap of a July 15 doubleheader, 13 video games greater than his earlier lengthy set simply final 12 months in a streak bifurcated by his damaged left thumb, which sidelined him for 2 months.

Harper underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final November 23, having forestalled the inevitable for six months, lengthy sufficient to provide some memorable moments whereas serving to the Phillies attain the World Collection for the primary time since 2009. He returned to the lineup on Could 2, 160 days after surgical procedure. As finest as anybody can inform, the place participant he surpassed along with his fast return was Tony Womack, who wanted 182 days; he underwent the surgical procedure on October 6, 2002, per week after the season ended, and was within the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day lineup on March 31, 2003.

Womack was a slap-hitting speedster who hit all of 36 homers in his 14-year main league profession, however he was significantly horrible in his post-surgery season, batting .226/.251/.307 with two homers and a 35 wRC+ whereas getting traded twice. Harper is just about the antithesis of Womack as a hitter, however given his fast return — which didn’t even embrace a rehab task, simply round 50 at-bats value of dwell batting follow towards teammates — it wasn’t all that stunning that he wasn’t fairly himself.

Harper wasn’t horrible within the early going; after going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his season debut, he went 3-for-3 with a double and a pair of walks the subsequent night time, homered off Boston’s Corey Kluber in his fourth recreation again, and once more off Colorado’s Pierce Johnson in his ninth, by which level he was hitting an absurd .361/.439/.611. The hits quickly slowed down, each actually and figuratively; as Leo Morgenstern identified in late June when Harper was greater than a month into his residence run drought, his exit velocity via his first 20 video games was solely within the seventieth percentile, down from his typical spot within the 90s (he was within the 92nd percentile in every of the previous two seasons).

Setting exit velocity and Statcast apart for a second, it’s not onerous to see that Harper was out of whack on the plate simply by taking a look at his conventional batted ball stats:

Harper isn’t as excessive a fly baller as — to make use of an apparent level of comparability — Mike Trout. Trout owns a profession groundball charge of 35.4% and a fly ball charge of 42.3%, for a 0.83 ratio. Harper’s profession charges are virtually the inverse, with a 41.4% groundball charge, a 36.7% fly ball charge, and a 1.13 ratio. As you may see from the desk above, his charges have been in the identical ballpark as these profession numbers in each 2021 and ’22, however via his first three months again, he was hitting way more grounders than flies; it’s solely in August that he’s approximated his profession fly ball charge.

In the meantime, the place Harper has pulled the ball at a 38.6% charge for his profession, he was properly beneath that in Could and June (the one really unproductive month right here) however has been nearer to his norm in July and August. With these patterns in thoughts, right here’s a take a look at his month-to-month Statcast numbers:

As you may see, Harper was properly beneath his typical common exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit charge till this month, although his barrel charge wasn’t far off from his Statcast-era common of 12.3%; he solely fell beneath that mark in July. His Statcast anticipated numbers have been really fairly respectable all through these leaner months, however he fell considerably wanting his xSLG and xwOBA in his homerless June, a month when his contact stats have been strong if lower than his profession requirements. He put up simply an 82 wRC+ in June, in comparison with 141 in Could, 128 in July, and 212 thus far in August.

Digging deeper, Harper pulled simply 9 fly balls from Could via July (5 in Could, two apiece in June and July) and had only one double and three homers to indicate for it; all however one homer from that meager subset of extra-base hits was in Could. By comparability, he’s pulled 9 fly balls in August alone, leading to 4 homers. His charge of pulled flies per batted ball has greater than tripled, from 4.4% earlier than August to 13.4% this month. His Statcast-era charge of pulled fly ball per batted ball is 8.7%, and he was at 8.6% in 2021, however slipped to 4.2% final 12 months amid his accidents.

All of which is to say that Harper is trying rather more like himself on the plate recently. His total batting line (.307/.400/.486, 140 wRC+) isn’t misplaced throughout the ups and downs of his 12-year profession. He’s inside one level of his profession wRC+, even when his route there was an unfamiliar one, pushed by a career-high .381 BABIP however only a .180 ISO, his lowest mark since 2014. His total common exit velocity (91.6 mph), barrel charge (13.9%) and hard-hit charge (41.6%) are inside hairs of his profession averages, although his 113.7 mph most exit velocity is down 2.6 mph from two years in the past.

I went into this dig believing that Harper’s elbow had one thing to do along with his lack of energy, and perhaps it was a contributing issue, but when so, we haven’t heard a lot about it. He’s missed only one recreation in every month he’s been again (extra on which momentarily). Primarily based upon his sample of manufacturing, his enchancment could owe extra to higher mechanics in his decrease half, equivalent to what NBC Sports activities Philadelphia’s Ricky Botallico just lately highlighted within the wake of a two-homer recreation on August 17. However even that doesn’t clarify Harper occurring this tear whereas taking part in via again points. He left the crew’s August 10 recreation towards the Twins after 4 innings as a result of again spasms, sat out the subsequent day earlier than returning to the lineup, and has DHed in 10 of his 13 video games since his absence. As just lately as August 23, he was nonetheless reporting again tightness.

When Harper hasn’t DHed, he’s performed first base, a place he had beforehand by no means performed professionally however one in all clear want for the Phillies. Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL throughout spring coaching, sidelining him for the season, and between Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, and Darick Corridor, the crew’s manufacturing at first positioned it on the Alternative Degree Killers checklist simply earlier than the commerce deadline. The Phillies started working Harper via first base drills whereas he was rehabbing, however he didn’t make his debut there till July 23, and nonetheless has solely 15 video games on the place. That’s too small a pattern to get a real learn on his ability, however for what little it’s value, the metrics say he’s common there. The configuration — which made its first look since August 20 in Monday night time’s recreation — permits the Phillies to place Kyle Schwarber at DH, one thing they supposed to do with frequency after they signed him final 12 months as a result of, properly, you’ve seen him play the outfield. Harper, whose personal defensive metrics in proper discipline have hardly been pristine, hasn’t performed within the pasture since April 16, 2022, shortly after he got here up in ache following a throw to the plate.

Harper the outfielder doesn’t look like within the crew’s plans this 12 months, however proper now that’s of secondary significance to the Phillies, who’re on a pleasant roll. They’ve received 4 straight, six of seven, and 16 of 25 in August. After posting a 25-30 document via the tip of Could, they’re 48-28 (.632) since, good for the majors’ third-best document behind the Braves (52-22, .703) and Dodgers (47-26, .644). At 73-58 total, they’ve a four-game lead over the second NL Wild Card crew, the Cubs (69-62), and that lead is essential, as a result of below the newish playoff format, the Phillies would play all three video games of the best-of-three Wild Card Collection at residence.

Even whereas hitting .360/.448/.742 this month, Harper isn’t carrying the Phillies singlehandedly. Trea Turner (.313/.355/.606, 155 wRC+) has lastly emerged from a season-long stoop, Schwarber (.209/.378/.558, 148 wRC+) has been thumping, and each Phillie with not less than 30 PA this month has a wRC+ of 100 or higher. Nonetheless, it’s reassuring to see Harper resume his spot on the heart of the thrill, as a result of he’s nearly as good when he’s within the highlight as any hitter within the recreation.