Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of February 21, 2023 - Inside the Hall

The choice committee revealed its prime 16 groups on Saturday, and whereas for probably the most half there weren’t many surprises, it does current bracketologists with an opportunity to get contained in the minds of the committee and a glimpse of what explicit issues appear to matter on this iteration of the choice course of. Rocco Miller and I spent a while discussing our reactions to the reveal on Monday’s version of Fielding the 68, however listed here are my fast ideas on every seed line:

• 1 Seeds: The groups (Alabama, Houston, Purdue, and Kansas) actually have been no shock, however it was notable that Houston was slotted because the second general seed. There’s no disputing that the Cougars are among the many nation’s finest groups, however the AAC doesn’t permit many alternatives for high quality wins, leaving the predictive metrics to hold the day for a Houston group with simply three wins in opposition to the projected area. A non-conference street win at Virginia was particularly talked about in the course of the reveal, in addition to the truth that the Cougars are 11-0 in street and impartial contests. Kansas has picked up two extra Q1 wins because the reveal and has leap-frogged Purdue in at this time’s projections.

• 2 Seeds: It was an analogous story right here with Texas, Arizona, Baylor, and UCLA predictably touchdown on the 2 line, however once more the order of these groups was notable, significantly with the Bruins. They boast robust predictive metrics however are simply 3-4 in opposition to the sector with wins over Maryland on the street, Kentucky on a impartial flooring, and USC at residence to go along with no unhealthy losses. Just like Houston, the alternatives for marquee wins are restricted within the Pac-12, which places big stress on the season finale in opposition to Arizona.

• 3 Seeds: I used to be shocked to see each Iowa State and Kansas State on the three line. It will seem that ISU’s eight Q1 wins heading into Saturday’s motion have been sufficient to offset a 2-6 street mark, whereas KSU was buoyed by a pair of Q1A street wins at Baylor and Texas.

• 4 Seeds: That perceived emphasis on Q1A street wins additionally aligns with Indiana’s choice because the thirteenth general group. I wasn’t completely surprised to see IU talked about, however their placement as the highest 4 seed was stunning. These street wins at Xavier and Illinois actually helped IU’s case although the Hoosiers have been simply 8-8 within the prime two quadrants heading into Saturday. Conversely, Gonzaga was a bit decrease than anticipated at fifteenth regardless of a variety of strong impartial courtroom wins, which appeared (key phrase) to point not all wins away from residence have been thought-about in the identical manner.

• 5 Seeds: Committee chair Chris Reynolds mentioned that Creighton, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, and UConn have been the one different groups thought-about for the highest 16, which might make them the 5 seeds in some order. The Huskies have been the group that appeared like the most important snub because of their 5 Q1 victories, together with impartial courtroom wins over Alabama and Iowa State. Maybe it was their 4-5 street mark that held them again, however it actually felt like the complete physique of labor didn’t carry the burden it has in years previous.

Earlier than we get to the bracket, right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins based mostly on the NET score:

· Quad 1: House vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75· Quad 2: House vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135· Quad 3: House vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240· Quad 4: House vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections beneath are based mostly on all video games performed by February 20, 2023. Following the bracket, I included my present final 4 in and first 5 out.

LOUISVILLE (SOUTH)

KANSAS CITY (MIDWEST)

Birmingham – March 16/18

1) Alabama

1) Houston

16) F. Dickinson / Howard

16) UNC-Asheville

8) Rutgers

8) Maryland

9) Missouri

9) Kentucky

Albany – March 17/19

Orlando – March 16/18

5) Creighton

5) Saint Mary’s

12) VCU

12) Drake

4) Indiana

4) Xavier

13) Hofstra

13) Southern Miss.

Greensboro – March 17/19

6) TCU

6) Windfall

11) Memphis / USC

11) West Virginia

3) Virginia

3) Tennessee

14) Colgate

14) UC Irvine

Des Moines – March 16/18

Denver – March 17/19

7) Duke

7) Iowa

10) Nevada

10) Auburn

2) Baylor

2) Texas

15) Youngstown St.

15) Kennesaw St.

NEW YORK (EAST)

LAS VEGAS (WEST)

Columbus – March 17/19

Des Moines – March 16/18

1) Purdue

1) Kansas

16) Alcorn St. / Morehead St.

16) Texas A&M-CC

8) Texas A&M

8) Arkansas

9) NC State

9) FAU

Albany – March 17/19

Sacramento – March 16/18

5) Miami (FL)

5) Connecticut

12) Kent St.

12) Oral Roberts

4) Marquette

4) Gonzaga

13) Iona

13) Utah Valley

Columbus – March 17/19

Orlando – March 16/18

6) San Diego St.

6) Northwestern

11) Mississippi St. / Wisconsin

11) Boise St.

3) Kansas St.

3) Iowa St.

14) Yale

14) E. Washington

Sacramento – March 16/18

Denver – March 17/19

7) Michigan St.

7) Illinois

10) Oklahoma St.

10) Pittsburgh

2) UCLA

2) Arizona

15) Vermont

15) Samford

Final 4 In:

Memphis – Whereas the Tigers are 7-6 within the prime two quadrants, solely two of these wins have come in opposition to groups within the at-large combine (residence vs. Texas A&M and impartial vs. Auburn). They price comparatively nicely in each units of metrics, however they may use one other marquee win. Sadly, the one remaining probability for that comes within the season finale in opposition to Houston, which suggests Memphis simply can’t afford to drop any of the subsequent three contests main as much as it.

Mississippi State – The Bulldogs managed to drag out a street win over Ole Miss in additional time on Saturday and are clinging to a spot within the area. They’re 8-5 in street/impartial video games however practically half of their whole victories fall in This autumn. A few big video games await this week, as Mississippi State travels to Missouri earlier than internet hosting red-hot Texas A&M.

USC – House wins over UCLA and Auburn are USC’s solely ones in opposition to groups within the at-large image. In addition they have one loss in Q3 and This autumn and are sub-.500 in street/impartial video games. Which means they will ailing afford to slide up at Colorado and Utah this week earlier than internet hosting the Arizona colleges to shut out the common season.

Wisconsin – By some means the Badgers simply hold hanging on regardless of sitting exterior of the highest 75 within the NET. They boast 5 Q1 wins, together with street wins at Marquette and Iowa, which presumably will imply so much to the committee. The predictive metrics are poor although, and they’re simply 10-11 in Q1-3. This week options key video games in opposition to Iowa at residence and a street journey to Michigan.

First 5 Out:

New Mexico – Highway wins at Saint Mary’s and San Diego State are big, however three Q3 losses and one other in This autumn have the Lobos in jeopardy. Accidents have performed a job in a few these defeats, however New Mexico has a pair of giant video games this week at Boise State and residential in opposition to SDSU.

Charleston – At 25-3, the Cougars simply must hold profitable as they sit tied atop the CAA with Hofstra, who beat them of their lone head-to-head matchup. Charleston is a powerful 11-2 away from residence with a pair of Q2 wins over Virginia Tech and Kent State. The ultimate two residence video games are winnable, so the Cougars should handle enterprise whereas hoping others round them lose.

Utah State – The Aggies have gaudy results-based metrics however no Q1 wins and simply two victories over groups within the at-large image, each of which got here at residence. Utah State has racked up seven Q2 wins, however they’ve one loss in Q3 and This autumn to weight them down. Their NET ranks among the many prime 35, and an 8-5 street/impartial mark helps as nicely. The Aggies hit the street for his or her subsequent two video games (Wyoming, UNLV) earlier than internet hosting Boise State to shut out the season.

North Carolina – Following Sunday’s loss at NC State, the Heels are in actual hazard. They’re now 0-8 in Q1 video games and have only one win over groups within the area (NC State). UNC is just 2-7 in true street video games, and whereas the predictive metrics are strong, the results-based metrics are lagging, which is a foul signal for his or her choice hopes. The Heels can not slip up at Notre Dame and Florida State, and residential video games in opposition to Virginia and Duke are essential.

North Texas – Very similar to Charleston, UNT simply must hold profitable. The Imply Inexperienced are actually 21-5 with strong results-based metrics. A sweep of UAB and a street win at MTSU account for North Texas’ trio of victories within the prime two quadrants. A pair of Q3 losses received’t assist issues, however the Imply Inexperienced have nonetheless managed to rack up 13 street/impartial wins, which leads the nation. They should win out and make a deep run within the C-USA Event at this level.

Convention Breakdown:

Massive Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Massive 12 (8): Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, West Virginia

SEC (8): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M

ACC (5): Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Massive East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Windfall, Xavier

Mountain West (3): Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State

Pac-12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, USC

American (2): Houston, Memphis

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Vermont