Even after final night time’s 9-2 drubbing of the Yankees, the Blue Jays sit six video games beneath .500. They’re on the backside of the AL East with a 37-43 file and have three groups between them and the Royals — the present holder of the American League’s remaining playoff spot.
It’s definitely not the place the Jays anticipated to seek out themselves on the season’s midway level. Toronto had gained between 89 and 92 video games in every of the previous three seasons and has gotten to the postseason in three of the final 4 years. They need to be squarely of their aggressive window.
That units the Jays up as one of many extra fascinating pivot groups over the subsequent month. They’re not wanting to promote, however they’re working low on time to play their method again into the playoff combine. Toronto is 6.5 again within the Wild Card race. Any hope they’d of profitable the division coming into this yr has lengthy since disappeared.
GM Ross Atkins acknowledged the group’s precarious place when he spoke with the Toronto beat earlier than Thursday’s win. “We’ve clearly put ourselves into a tricky spot during the last seven days,” Atkins mentioned (hyperlink by way of Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “Ten days in the past, we have been feeling like there was optimistic momentum, and that has gone away.”
Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote earlier this week that the Jays weren’t but prepared to make key gamers accessible in commerce. Atkins prompt equally in his feedback on Thursday, saying the entrance workplace’s “focus is on the 2024 group.” Whereas the GM acknowledged that any choice additionally includes consideration of the long run, he pointed to the group’s funding in each payroll and prospect capital on this roster. “We’ll proceed to try this till it doesn’t make sense to take action any extra,” he added.
That naturally raises the query of when the entrance workplace might resolve they haven’t any alternative however to show their focus towards the long run. That’ll largely depend upon how issues play out within the subsequent 4 to 5 weeks — each in Toronto and round the remainder of the American League. “The approaching days are exceptionally vital to us, and understanding the market can also be exceptionally vital to us in both method,” Atkins mentioned (by way of Matheson). “We’re targeted on profitable. We’re targeted on constructing the absolute best group we are able to this yr and supporting them the perfect we are able to. If we get to some extent the place we have to modify, we’ll be ready to take action.”
Toronto isn’t distinctive in that regard. There are solely 5 – 6 (relying on one feels in regards to the Tigers) groups who appear to be clear-cut sellers at this level. But there aren’t many extra who can really feel safe about their possibilities of attending to the postseason. Upwards of half the groups within the league might resolve their deadline path based mostly on how they carry out in July. Varied golf equipment might additionally attempt to straddle the road by offloading some veterans whereas in search of speedy assist in different areas of the roster.
The Jays have a extra established roster than most of these fringe groups. Toronto has probably impactful commerce candidates with various ranges of membership management. Neither Danny Jansen nor Yusei Kikuchi has performed properly in latest weeks, but they’d each began the season fairly properly. Jansen is the highest impending free agent catcher, whereas Kikuchi could be one of many extra gifted rental beginning pitchers available on the market if the Jays made him accessible.
Yimi García is pitching properly and could be an easy goal for groups in search of veteran bullpen assist if he’s wholesome by the deadline. (He went on the injured checklist with elbow neuritis two weeks in the past.) Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier are having disappointing seasons. Whereas the Jays would in all probability need to kick in money to facilitate trades of both participant, they might get calls based mostly on their pre-2024 monitor information.
Issues would turn into extra fascinating if the Jays severely thought of transferring key gamers who’re below management past this season. That might signify a much bigger reset than merely buying and selling leases. There’s an argument for doing so if the Jays can’t claw again into competition over the subsequent few weeks. Toronto has a handful of gamers who’re in or on the again finish of their primes. They’ve acquired dwindling management home windows on franchise faces Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, every of whom are slated without spending a dime company after the 2025 marketing campaign. Bichette will make $16.5MM subsequent season, whereas Guerrero goes to be due a noteworthy elevate on this yr’s $19.9MM wage.
Atkins bluntly shot down the notion of buying and selling both star hitter earlier this month. That presumably gained’t cease groups from calling to gauge whether or not the Jays are prepared to rethink. Bichette himself informed Hazel Mae (X hyperlink) that he wouldn’t be shocked if the Jays moved him, although that’d presumably change if the group performs its method again into competition.
Guerrero is amidst arguably the second-best offensive season of his profession. He’s hitting .289/.370/.447 throughout 351 plate appearances. Whereas he hasn’t hit for a similar degree of energy he did in 2021-22, Guerrero has the second-highest common and on-base mark of his profession. Bichette hasn’t carried out to his standard normal, working a personal-worst .232/.282/.333 slash line over 287 journeys. Whereas that’d arguably make this summer season an inopportune time to maneuver him, Bichette would certainly nonetheless draw ample consideration if the Jays put him available on the market. There aren’t many on a regular basis shortstops who appear more likely to be accessible.
Past that duo, the Jays have a handful of controllable gamers who might generate calls, notably on the pitching aspect. Jordan Romano has spent the previous month on the injured checklist with elbow irritation. He’s a two-time All-Star nearer who’s below arbitration management by means of subsequent season, although. Romano just lately resumed throwing from 120 toes on flat floor (by way of the MLB.com damage tracker). Chris Bassitt is making $22MM this season and subsequent. He turned in a 3.60 ERA over 33 begins a yr in the past and has labored to a 3.45 mark with first rate strikeout and stroll numbers over 91 1/3 innings. Buying and selling Kevin Gausman, who’s below contract by means of 2026, nonetheless appears unlikely except the entrance workplace kicks off a extra vital reboot.
If the Jays carry out the way in which they’re hoping over the subsequent month, including to the bullpen and deepening the lineup could be the possible priorities. The Romano and García accidents — paired with Erik Swanson’s struggles — have contributed to the Jays working out one of many least constant aid teams within the majors. The underside half of the lineup hasn’t carried out as much as expectations both. That’s largely on account of underperformance from the likes of Bichette, Turner, Kiermaier and George Springer. The Jays additionally entered the season with questions at second and third base. They’ve plugged rookie Spencer Horwitz into common motion on the keystone whereas free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who has considerably quietly impressed with a .283/.333/.402 exhibiting) has gotten the majority of the third base reps.
