Best of BP: The Padres Did and Did Not Acquire Josh Hader

Picture credit score: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports activities

Maybe essentially the most shocking transfer earlier than the commerce deadline was that, within the midst of a probable postseason berth, the Brewers traded Josh Hader to the Padres in alternate for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, and a pair prospects. Optically, that regarded fairly unhealthy, and inside a number of days, Lamet was designated for task, including to the poor optics of the scenario. I’m not right here to rationalize issues for the Brewers, however I do wish to pose the argument that the Padres aren’t getting the Hader that individuals have grown accustomed to.

For those who’ve been following Hader this yr, you then’ll know that, largely, he’s been excellent. He’s been 30% higher than league common in line with DRA-, rating 14th greatest in MLB, with one of many greater WARP totals of all relievers. The factor is, he hasn’t been characteristically good, with a July wherein Hader surrendered as many residence runs as he did walks, good (unhealthy) for a 12.54 ERA on that month. The query is, why? Jay Jaffe has you coated there:

A lot of the current harm towards Hader was achieved to his sinker, which in July was hit for a .345 common and .759 slugging proportion; the ten hits and 5 extra-base hits he allowed throughout the month have been greater than he allowed by way of the pitch from April by means of June (4 hits, three for additional bases). Hader has thrown the pitch sooner this yr than final, however he’s throwing it from the next arm slot and getting much less motion on it.

That’s principally an article, all consolidated into one paragraph. Hader’s sinker was good. Perhaps not characteristically so, however good. Then, in July, one thing occurred, the place Hader was getting fewer whiffs on his sinker than in any month over his profession, and with his highest slugging proportion ever too. Jaffe judiciously factors out that Hader is throwing tougher, however that his arm slot has risen, which has resulted in among the least arm-side run he’s ever had. 

It’s value spending a while right here, as a result of Hader’s arm slot is all the things. Contemplate his arm slots over the yr, plotted by horizontal and vertical launch level, together with his 2022 launch level circled in crimson:

For years, Hader has made his cash releasing the ball round 5.25 toes above the bottom, about 3.50 toes in the direction of first base from the middle of the pitching rubber. From 2017 to 2020, that made for one of the crucial distinctive launch factors in baseball, with solely 11 pitchers releasing the ball nearer to first base, and 11 pitchers releasing from a decrease launch level. An outlier launch with robust pitch traits typically begets constructive outcomes, and till now, Hader hasn’t had many hiccups, however that is trying like greater than only a blip to me.

Let’s go additional and have a look at Hader’s uncooked sinker motion, by horizontal motion and short-form vertical motion, by yr, once more, together with his 2022 sinker circled in crimson:

Once more, you’ll discover that Hader’s sinker has modified considerably relative to earlier years, with rather more fastball journey—typically a very good factor!—however a lot much less arm-side motion. The distinction right here is that, this time, his 2017 sinker is shut in proximity by way of uncooked pitch motion, and but it’s been a considerably inferior pitch. That hints at rather a lot, which I’ll get to in a second.

One vital consideration is that, as per ordinary, uncooked pitch motion doesn’t inform us all the things, however particularly with a pitcher like Hader. Contemplate his horizontal strategy angle (HAA) and vertical strategy angle (VAA) which present how Hader’s sinker has slowly deteriorated in pitch high quality:

VAA
HAA

2019
-3.7°
2.5°

2020
-3.6°
2.5°

2021
-3.8°
2.4°

2022
-4.1°
2.6°

If we have been taking a look at Hader pre-VAA, pre-Statcast period, we’d be in disbelief that he’s throwing tougher, with extra sinker journey, and but his sinker is getting hit tougher than ever. We’d conclude that Hader is tipping his pitches, or perhaps that the change in has made him much less misleading. There’s one thing to that final level, and, once more, I’ll get to that momentarily, however clearly Hader’s sinker has begun getting into the zone at a barely steeper angle, which suggests the times of Hader having the flattest fastball in baseball are now not. It’s actually not drastic sufficient to make his sinker ineffective, however clearly lesser so. 

So, Hader’s sinker has misplaced among the flatness that make it particular. A lot is obvious. However there’s one other consideration right here, one that also makes Hader one thing of a unicorn. From Lance Brozdowski:

You’ve in all probability by no means stopped to consider it, however it’s not a straightforward factor to throw a high-efficiency sinker that spins round 10:45 to 11:00 on a clock face from such a low arm slot. The video right here makes it clear how Hader is ready to do this: regardless of throwing from a low slot, he’s capable of hold his wrist oriented vertically, which helps him create a vertical spin profile from a horizontally-oriented launch. In different phrases, very similar to seam-shifted wake, that’s what makes Hader misleading: he’s creating pitch motion that’s incongruent from what you’d anticipate from his arm slot.

Right here’s a consultant launch level from Hader in 2020:

After which once more, from 2022:

Hader nonetheless releases the ball together with his wrist oriented vertically, which suggests his spin tilt, or spin path, has remained about the identical. However now that his arm slot has began to rise, the sinker isn’t as misleading because it as soon as was, as a result of his anticipated spin path from his launch level has moved from about 9:30 to 10:30 on a clock face, which has begun to converge together with his precise spin path of 11:00. It’s clear that his sinker has grow to be much less misleading due to this, so it’s not getting on hitters in addition to it used to. 

I can present how that is the case in two methods. One is that Hader is getting fewer whiffs than ever, one thing that Jaffe and I’ve made a lot clear. The opposite, although, is Hader isn’t getting as many pop-ups anymore. From Baseball Savant:

If a sinker strikes extra vertically than you’d anticipate based mostly on launch, odds are you’re going to swing below it, as a result of it falls manner lower than you’d anticipate. That’s both going to lead to a whiff—one thing that, once more, is manner down for Hader—or a pop-up or weakly hit fly ball. As you’ll be able to see, Hader has been inducing fewer pop-ups than ever, and though he nonetheless induces a good quantity, hitters are additionally squaring up the ball greater than ever. That not solely means tougher hit balls, but additionally extra balls put into play, which has translated to extra barrels per plate appearances. The onerous contact was palatable again when Hader was producing extra whiffs than anybody in baseball. Now that these have gone away? He’s been extra mortal than ever earlier than.

Hader’s depressing July had been within the works for awhile. His launch level has been creeping up since 2021, and now he’s lastly struggling the results. For those who’re in search of some optimism, I’m unsure I’ve received any to supply. It’s onerous to think about that Hader is ever the identical with out his previous arm slot, and it doesn’t appear to be he’s going to get again to it any time quickly. Maybe he’ll get one thing out of an altered grip? The Brewers might have traded their aid ace whereas within the thick of a playoff race, however perhaps there’s motive to consider that Taylor Rogers finally ends up being the superior choice to Josh Hader come October.