Best of BP: Evaluating Historical Dynasty Rankings, Part 1

Picture credit score: © Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports activities

This text was initially revealed on December 22, 2023.

“Hindsight is 20/20,” we are saying as we wistfully look again to yesteryear and our ill-fated choices in our dynasty leagues. This reflection is vital, nevertheless. Analyzing what went proper and what went improper is significant to enhancing our course of. However, precisely how will we assess our dynasty valuation course of?

Bret Sayre, the President and CEO of Baseball Prospectus, based The Dynasty Guru in August 2012. Bret’s course of (and my very own) is to rank gamers by the perceived current worth of future manufacturing. Now, practically 11 years faraway from his first High-500 Dynasty Rankings previous to the 2013 season, it’s time to revisit these ranks and those who adopted and choose them towards precise manufacturing.

To take action, I used Fangraphs’ Public sale Calculator to calculate the worth of participant manufacturing from 2013 to 2023, based mostly on customary scoring in a 15-team league with one catcher and minimal innings pitched of 1,000 (besides 370 in 2020). Then, I utilized a gift worth components with a twenty p.c (20%) rate of interest. (Usually, future manufacturing is closely discounted in most dynasty leagues.) Lastly, I eradicated any participant unsigned previous to the season in query. For instance, for the 2013 rankings, I excluded José Abreu, Kris Bryant, and Trea Turner, amongst others.

2013 Rankings

Typically, Bret did fairly properly. Mike Trout ranked atop each lists. (This will probably be a typical theme.) Additional, eight of Bret’s top-eleven gamers ranked inside the high 29 in current worth of precise manufacturing. Along with Trout, Bret was additionally spot on for a number of gamers, rating every participant equally to their final manufacturing:

For gamers that underperformed Bret’s top-ten rating, there are clear excuses. Ryan Braun was suspended midseason in 2013 for performance-enhancing medicine, and, whereas he carried out properly the remainder of his profession, his efficiency actually dipped. An ankle damage sapped Matt Kemp’s pace. A neck damage successfully ended Prince Fielder’s profession prematurely. 

Arguably Bret’s greatest miss was Allen Craig. Looking back, it’s straightforward to see why rating Craig as excessive as Thirty third-overall was a mistake. On the time, Craig was coming off a season by which he hit .307/.354/.522 with 22 residence runs (after hitting .315/.362/.555 in restricted time the 12 months earlier than). But, Craig was 28 years outdated, was a poor defender and athlete, and had much less uncooked energy than his gaudy two-year run recommended. 

With expertise, you hopefully be taught to establish and correctly fade gamers like Craig. Did Bret be taught from his errors?

2014 Rankings

Sure, Bret discovered from his errors. (Form of. He did nonetheless rank Allen Craig at 72nd total.) 

As soon as extra, Mike Trout sits atop each units of rankings. After that, issues received a bit dicier. This 12 months, Bret solely had six of his top-eleven gamers inside the high 25 in current worth of precise manufacturing. Bret was additionally spot on for fewer gamers:

The difficulty in Bret’s 2014 rankings stems from declining manufacturing from getting older gamers. Right here is an ideal instance of the dangers related to valuing 30+ year-old gamers extremely. Miguel Cabrera (31 in April), Hanley Ramirez (30), Ryan Braun (30), and Robinson Canó (31) all ranked inside the high ten and, whereas none actually fell off a cliff, none did not return near anticipated worth given their respective rating. On the similar time, Nelson Cruz (33) started his historic run in 2014. Usually, it’s unimaginable to foretell how particular person gamers will age. Nevertheless, and as a common rule, the overwhelming majority of highly-ranked 30+ aged gamers didn’t present worth at value.

2015 Rankings

Mookie Betts supplanted Mike Trout for the primary time in 2015 as the brand new primary within the rankings of current worth of precise manufacturing. After all, Mike Trout remained the unquestioned primary in Bret’s rankings (as he ought to have). 

Bret’s 2015 rankings had some high-profile misses. Carlos Gomez (9) started a critical decline in 2015 on the age of 29. Velocity-oriented gamers with poor approaches and non-elite contact charges or high quality of contact are a dangerous cohort. Gomez’s decline is an apt harbinger of the potential decline of Trea Turner. In the meantime, Miguel Cabrera (7) was getting into his age-32 season and coming off his lowest residence run complete (25) since his rookie 12 months. 

As well as, Bret’s 2015 rankings solely had six of his top-16 gamers inside the high 35 in current worth of precise manufacturing. Nevertheless, Bret was largely spot on for extra gamers:

Certainly, Bret’s 2015 rankings had been arguably his greatest but. His rankings captured 89 of the 100 high performing gamers by current worth. 

It’s practically unimaginable to be excellent on this course of. Who would have predicted José Ramírez would develop right into a famous person? On the time, he was projected for a part-time function after hitting simply .262/.300/.346 over 266 plate appearances the 12 months earlier than. Ronald Acuña Jr. was a little bit identified worldwide signing for $100,000 the summer time earlier than. Whit Merrifield went unselected within the Rule 5 Draft later in 2015. Participant outlooks and evaluations can change shortly, and the astute dynasty supervisor must be ready to adapt and uncover these gems.

Half 2 will look at 2016-2018 and supply concluding ideas!