Tremendous Bowl 58 is simply days away, which suggests it’s time for everybody to essentially begin fascinated about their bets for the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers matchup. Due to this fact, our NFL betting consultants have put collectively their finest bets for Tremendous Bowl 58 so as to begin inserting your wagers forward of Sunday’s recreation.
Tremendous Bowl 58 Odds and Greatest Bets
Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Dashing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The narrative heading into the Tremendous Bowl is across the greatness of Mahomes and, in fact, the presence of Taylor Swift. Ignored, to a level, is Isiah Pacheco, a participant that I imagine is about to impression this recreation as a lot as anybody.
The Panthers and Cardinals have been two of the worst groups within the league this season; that a lot we are able to agree on, proper? They mixed to win six video games and have been not often aggressive down the stretch.
Effectively, these are the one two defenses with a decrease rush EPA this season than the 49ers. We give Andy Reid loads of credit score for being an offensive genius, and I belief him holding my cash in a wager like this as I’m banking on him exploiting the first weak point of his opponent.
Pacheco has carried the ball 15+ occasions in eight of his previous 9 video games, and the lone exception was that loss on Christmas day in opposition to the Raiders that featured a pair of defensive touchdowns in seven seconds and 10 Mahomes rush makes an attempt.
That recreation occurred, nevertheless it’s not precisely one thing I’d name repeatable.
Pacheco has cleared this quantity in all three video games this postseason, and that hasn’t occurred accidentally. Merely put, he will get tougher to sort out with time. His yards gained per carry after contact are spiking, one thing we noticed down the stretch of final season as effectively.
2023: After Week 12, YPC after contact up 22.7%
2022: After Week 14, YPC after contact up 21%
Given the purpose unfold on this recreation, I don’t anticipate recreation script being a significant subject — if we are able to pencil in Pacheco for 15+ totes on this one, I be ok with cashing this ticket.
Brock Purdy Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: If you wish to get your arms soiled and craft passing yardage projections for this recreation, I’ve the article for you: Early Picks for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.
MORE: Sportsbooks Hate Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey – Right here’s Why
In brief, the Chiefs are an elite stress protection that fits itself effectively to precisely what the 49ers need to do via the air — quick-hitting passes that enable their elite play-makers to get the ball of their arms in area.
My projection math returns this as wager no matter the way you assume the sport performs out, although it does acquire win fairness in case you imagine that the Chiefs find yourself profitable this recreation.
No Rating within the First 6 Minutes (-135 at DraftKings)
Soppe: That is the primary of many various types of bets we can be detailing over the following 1.5 days and one which I be ok with leaping on now.
“No” has cashed in two of the three Mahomes Tremendous Bowls
“No” has cashed in six of the previous seven Tremendous Bowls
Winner in eight of their previous 9 video games
“No” has cashed in 15 of 20 Chiefs video games this season
Simply watch out in inserting this wager, because the wording can differ by sportsbook. Some require you to wager “Sure” the primary factors can be scored at or after six minutes have elapsed. So long as you’re paying consideration, it is a wager that carries extra win fairness than the chances counsel!
Chiefs +7 and Over 40.5 Factors Scored (-120 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: The whole lot I have a look at tells me that Tremendous Bowl 58 can be an in depth recreation, but when one workforce does run away with it, it’s extra prone to be the Chiefs.
Primarily based on that, I may simply take the Chiefs getting their 1.5 or 2 factors, however that leaves me weak to a slender 49ers win. Due to this fact, I’m going to tease the outcome to offer myself a margin of error.
You’ll not discover many sportsbooks keen to allow you to get to Chiefs +7.5 with out having to pay a significant premium when it comes to the chances. The great thing about Identical Recreation Parlays is which you could just about choose the mixtures you’re pleased with.
I’ve gone for Chiefs +7 and over 40.5 factors as a result of that’s the place I really feel happiest. Nonetheless, if you wish to go Chiefs +7.5 and put the overall someplace totally different, that may be very attainable.
Chiefs +2.5 (-115) and Moneyline (+110)
Bearman: Perhaps folks discovered their lesson by now to not wager in opposition to Patrick Mahomes within the playoffs. Even when counted out, the Chiefs and Mahomes do their factor and are of their fourth Tremendous Bowl during the last 5 years, one thing solely achieved by two different franchises within the SB period.
Mahomes is now 10-1-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) as an underdog, and he’s getting factors once more.
I’m not betting in opposition to final 12 months’s champs, particularly now that they’ve one other weapon — their protection. What Steve Spagnuolo and Kansas Metropolis’s protection did to a Baltimore offense that was averaging 34 factors per recreation, was tops within the NFL in speeding, and was led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, who was nothing in need of excellent.
By no means earlier than has Mahomes had a protection like this, which additionally shut down the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Payments twice this season and held the Philadelphia Eagles to 21 factors.
Nice comebacks by the Niners vs. the Inexperienced Bay Packers within the Divisional Spherical and once more vs. the Detroit Lions within the Convention Championship received them right here. Nonetheless, if that very same San Francisco workforce we noticed within the first half of each playoff video games comes out in Las Vegas, the Chiefs will win simply.
I assume they are going to be prepared, so we must always have recreation. 4 years in the past, I predicted a 31-20 Kansas Metropolis win over the Niners, and I’m going again to the effectively with the identical rating.
KEEP READING: Tremendous Bowl 58 Predictions
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