2:00
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
2:00
: Let’s discuss some baseball, and actually I hope to speak about playoff races
2:00
: Clearly Gunnar Henderson has been nice. However ought to Orioles followers be involved long-term in regards to the cratering stroll charge within the second half? Or simply take the XBH’s and shut up about it?
2:01
: Yeah, kind of the second factor
2:02
: He appears to be fairly good on the subject of plate self-discipline and controlling the strike zone in the long run. We’re not speaking about Keston Hiura right here or something.
2:02
: I believe this can paste okay:
2:02
: That’s 15-game swinging strike charge, rolling throughout his season, and eh, I’m not too nervous. He appears to be like like an amazing hitter to me
2:03
: I dunno when you watched both of Kershaw’s final two outings, however Laborious To Watch is a euphemism. I’ve felt fortunate to root for him for a very long time, but when that is all he can do (excessive 80s with unhealthy command), then I don’t see how pitching him helps anybody. Possibly he simply wants extra relaxation, perhaps he might even determine an Eck/Smoltz kinda denouement, however beginning along with his stuff is a playoff catastrophe ready to occur, and one he shouldn’t/doesn’t deserve to soak up, imo. What do you assume occurs right here?
2:04
: I’ve not watched them, however this looks like a scalding scorching take to me
2:04
: It’s two begins
2:04
: My guess is that he’ll find yourself overexposed within the playoffs as a result of that’s how Dave Roberts likes to handle
2:04
: However everywhere when it comes to well being and velocity looks like Kershaw of current classic to me
2:05
: he was fairly wonderful in June, I believe they may in all probability attempt to get him a number of relaxation down the stretch and hope that comes again
2:05
: Who do you might have taking the NL West and AL East crowns?
2:05
: Let’s begin with NL West, and uh… Dodgers
2:05
: however presuming that was a typo, I’ll go Astros and Orioles
2:06
: gotta follow my preseason predictions, but additionally these appear to be the percentages on picks
2:06
: our crew projections actually hate the O’s, they’ve all yr
2:07
: and even they offer them an 80% likelihood of profitable the division
2:07
: two video games in hand and the tiebreaker is a ton
2:07
: Cedric Mullins has gone from a Cutter/Slider killer in his 2021 30/30 season to a Sinker/Splitter killer in 2023. Do most gamers keep constantly good at hitting sure pitches or do this stuff fluctuate by means of a profession.
2:07
: Notably by linear weights pitch sort values, they fluctuate a ton
2:08
: for kinda the explanation you would possibly anticipate – when you BABIP .400 in opposition to cutters one yr, your numbers will look fairly good
2:09
: I strive to not learn an excessive amount of into these, and focus extra on swinging strike charges or laborious contact charges or issues like that by pitch sort
2:09
: In Mullins’s case particularly, he simply appears good at hitting every little thing to me. I don’t have him as a fastball or offspeed hunter particularly, only a well-rounded hitter who can take what the pitcher offers him
2:09
: I’m curious what it’s like as an up and down main leaguer. You make much more than a mean American however not sufficient to totally retire after your taking part in days are over and most of your coworkers (and maybe lots of your mates) make much more than you. You presumably have bills (journey and coaching associated) that might make no sense for most individuals to spend on. In need of interviewing a significant leaguers you struck me as a most insightful individual to ask about this.
2:09
: I ponder about this so much
2:10
: So in that sense, perhaps I’m the correct individual to ask
2:10
: I believe that it’s kinda hopeless to anticipate these guys to check themselves to the typical American. Individuals unavoidably examine themselves to their friends, and the peer group for an up-and-down bullpen man is main league gamers
2:11
: That stated, the percentages are actually good that you simply LOVE baseball when you make it that far
2:11
: So the trail of least resistance is to finish up doing baseball-related issues
2:12
: I wager the bills factor messes individuals up, however the ‘all my buddies are wealthy’ factor doesn’t really feel like an enormous deal to me, to be sincere
2:12
: I’ve been on each side of that divide at varied factors and eh, the friendships which are largely about evaluating standing don’t final very lengthy
2:12
: the individuals you actually get together with, you follow and hey, in the event that they’re doing nicely, good for them
2:12
: Bringing the household for what is going to hopefully be Waino’s #200 however extra seemingly can be an early hook adopted by 3-4 innings within the child space earlier than we go residence!
2:13
: Going to milestone video games is so cool, I hope you see it
2:13
: I additionally hope so for Wainwright’s sake
2:13
: It’s been a nightmare 10 days for the Cubs. Are they toast?
2:13
: I needed to jot down about this, however I simply saved arising with speak radio degree takes
2:14
: very long time listener, first time caller, the Cubs won’t ever rating a run agian
2:14
: that type of factor
2:14
: Let me simply say this: they should get busy
2:14
: They’ve six straightforward video games arising, Pirates and Rockies at residence
2:15
: In the event that they go 3-3 or worse, I believe they’re cooked, as a result of they end with 3 in ATL and three in MIlwaukee
2:15
: Delusional Padres fan right here who can’t stroll away. The Pads have an easy schedule ROS. If (BIG if) the can win out, and get to 84-78, what do you assume the possibilities are they squeeze within the final wild card spot?
2:16
: okay so I believe this kind of eliminates the Giants, for the reason that Pads would sweep them, getting them to 77 losses
2:16
: It’d additionally give the Padres the tiebreaker
2:17
: Alright that is gonna take me a second to take a look at all of the tiebreakers however I need to, enjoyable query
2:18
: they don’t have the breaker in opposition to anybody within the race apart from the Marlins, until I’m misunderstanding it. In order that signifies that 3 of the DBacks/Cubs/Marlins/Reds want to complete with 79 losses or extra
2:19
: that principally means having a shedding file the remainder of the best way for these groups
2:20
: so let’s name {that a} 40% proposition for every crew
2:20
: I believe that works out to there being an 18% likelihood or so of constructing the playoffs if the Padres win out
2:20
: not too unhealthy!
2:20
: Is Mozeliak already strolling again the “we’re getting 3 starters” factor? Certain looks like it primarily based on his feedback from this previous weekend.
2:20
: It positively feels that manner
2:20
: I believe that was a rash factor to say within the first palce to be sincere
2:20
: Received a 2:05pm lineup lock query so your promptness is tremendous appreciated. Making an attempt to battle bus my manner again to 4th place. I’m solely separated by 3 runs to maneuver up 2 spots, and some stolen bases. I would like some lineup assist, do I am going with Yelich this week or go along with Blackmon?
2:20
: d go along with Yelich
2:21
: though I’m undecided if this 2:05 lineup lock is EST, wherein case sorry
2:21
: Simply happening the cue in time order for the time being
2:21
: six away video games for the Rockies this week
2:21
: Can the Dodgers truly duct tape a rotation collectively for the playoffs? How do you see them doing it?
2:22
: I believe they’ll handle it in a stereotypically ugly manner, with a ton of bullpen-y video games and a few ugly blowups papered over by the nice offense
2:22
: They actually wouldn’t have sufficient starters
2:22
: Sheehan is gonna must do some WORK out of the pen
2:22
: Any recreation the place Yordan Alvarez performs LF, Yanier Diaz ought to be DH if he’s not catching… Proper? Assist me perceive why Diaz has been on the bench so often. He looks like a legit energy bat to me primarily based on outcomes and statcast information
2:23
: I believe that’s moooostly true?
2:23
: I’d wish to get Brantley again within the groove earlier than the playoffs if doable
2:24
: and resting Diaz in all probability has good knock-on results long-term. However that’s assuming he wants the remaining as a result of the Astros plan on utilizing him closely within the playoffs, and that’s not clear to me in any respect given his utilization all yr
2:24
: if what you’re saying is that the Astros are underutilizing him, i imply, yeah
2:24
: it’s foolish
2:25
: Elite stroll/strike out stats. Do you might have any scouting experiences on this undrafted over achiever?
2:25
: just about nothing, tbh
2:25
: He’s the type of man Eric will get the inside track on each offseason
2:26
: the one I consider, as a result of I’m a Cardinals fan, is Kodi Whitley. I’d by no means heard of this man after which BAM, each public prospect author obtained the look unexpectedly and he was a identified amount earlier than he debuted
2:27
: so I’d say watch this area (FanGraphs) for offseason updates)
2:27
: Ought to Guardians followers be optimistic following this yr given the spectacular efficiency of their younger pitchers (and the returns of Bieber and McKenzie), or extra involved given their offensive regressions?
2:27
: I believe pessimistic, as a result of Jose Ramirez is one other yr older and so they went under .500 in a foul division
2:28
: that stated, I’m excited to see whether or not Josh Naylor can lastly put issues collectively for a full yr
2:28
: Actually, this yr would possibly rely
2:28
: A Cleveland hitter with precise energy? It’s perhaps true
2:28
: after a couple of years of the present playoff setup, how do you prefer it?
2:29
: I believe general I prefer it
2:29
: the worst division winner getting punished is an efficient function in my view
2:29
: I don’t just like the flattening of the third wild card/semi-contender area, and its impact on the deadline
2:29
: I’d wish to see one thing modified there, maybe a later commerce deadline
2:29
: However the three-game sequence are actually enjoyable
2:29
: and I believe an applicable handicap for WC groups
2:30
: WSox fan right here, however I can be following the Cubs for the playoffs. Does their pitching stack up okay for the playoffs? Who strains up 1-4? (Their lineup shouldn’t have any holes)
2:31
: I assume Stroman can be able to go by then, however I assume that’s not 100%
2:31
: Steele/Hendricks/Taillon really feel like locks to me. I’m guessing they’re between Wicks and Stroman for that final spot
2:32
: I’d have Hendricks behind Wicks, personally, and on the bubble, however the crew appears larger on Hendricks htan me, and I’m positive that his longevity issues
2:32
: How does the Nationals’ rebuild look to you because the season winds down?
2:33
: Fairly good! I just like the indicators of life from Abrams, the prospects are trying stable, I nonetheless type of consider in Luis Garcia
2:34
: If you happen to assume the crew goes to pour a bunch of cash into being good after they assume they’re prepared, a la Jayson Werth signaling a surge of their earlier cycle, I believe that subsequent yr can be essential
2:34
: as a result of if the younger guys take a step ahead, you possibly can begin seeing the groundwork are available in proper after that
2:34
: How a lot do you anticipate lacking a whole season to harm my improvement? I’ll be 25 subsequent yr, and a number of my points are issues that primarily enhance with recreation reps – can I nonetheless be a 30/30 (or 40/40) man?
2:34
: Sadly, so much
2:34
: I’m a giant Cruz fan, however the reps clock actually issues
2:34
: and he’s simply working out of time
2:35
: Appears like individuals ought to be speaking extra about Ryan Noda. A rule 5 decide placing up a 130 wrc+ and over 2 WAR in solely 450 PAs. Good work if you may get it
2:35
: I believe that the A’s are simply so miserable this yr that their success tales are going under-appreciated
2:35
: Is Yainer Diaz the very best hitting backup in baseball historical past?
2:36
: I believe I’m gonna have to provide that honor to Lou Gehrig
2:36
: baseball historical past goes again a great distance
2:36
: Who’s the very best crew within the AL? Looks like you can also make a reasonably respectable argument for nearly any of the seemingly playoff groups.
2:36
: I just like the Astros
2:36
: However yeah, it’s crowded at hte high within the AL
2:36
: Are there any playoff matches you’re actually hoping to see?
2:36
: Dodgers Braves is enjoyable. However O’s/Rays once more can be nice
2:36
: I’ve beloved their sequence this yr
2:37
: a texas showdown with Scherzer dealing with Verlander is now off the desk, that might have been up there in any other case
2:37
: Lot of blended alerts with Elly…his SwStr and z contact are not less than sneezing distance from common, and his Ok charge is encouragingly about what it was in AAA, however his GB% and O-Zone% are ugly. For 2024, is that this a purchase low man who’s an adjustment from exploding, or merely a lotto ticket?
2:37
: I’m on an adjustment away from exploding simply due to his age and instruments
2:37
: I dunno the place he’s gonna be valued in fantasy, although. I might think about him being a extremely excessive decide due to the hype, at which level the equation doesn’t work that nicely
2:38
: two very younger SS, who’re you extra inspired by and purchase into long-term: CJ Abrams or Volpe?
2:38
: Volpe by a great distance
2:39
: I believe it’s important to challenge an excessive amount of enchancment in Abrams’s protection nonetheless
2:39
: he exhibits flashes, however I’m not in on it but
2:40
: and I like Volpe’s ceiling extra as a hitter. Abrams feels a bit extra capped to me offensively due to his method
2:40
: That stated I may be letting my preseason view of Abrams creep into this analysis an excessive amount of
2:40
: It’s a superb one to look again into after the yr
2:41
: I used to be fairly down on Abrams due to, nicely, the arc of his profession
2:41
: however it is a actually encouraging season for him, little doubt
2:41
: All else being equal, would two hitters, one with a .250/.350/.450 line and the opposite with a .300/.350/.450 line, have the identical or completely different wRC+ values?
2:41
: in all probability the identical ish
2:41
: Ben, Davis Schneider’s wRC+ has dropped practically 60 factors (to 193) because you wrote about him. Why did you jinx him (as a result of there’s clearly no different clarification)? Additionally, over/below 125 for his finish of season wRC+?
2:42
: Over! however yeah, haha, whoops
2:42
: Am I simply being a very emotional fan after I argue the most important mistake the Jays have made in current reminiscence was failing to provide Anthopolous full management, which ended his tenure in Toronto?
2:42
: No I believe that’s in all probability proper
2:42
: clearly he’s fairly good at it
2:43
: and I don’t have another evident issues to level out
2:43
: I believe I will need to have blended up a few of the tiebreak conditions
2:43
: that’s what makes this math laborious
2:43
: if they’ve the tiebreak over two groups, then it jumps up so much
2:43
: and I perhaps didn’t even implement the primary one proper
2:43
: I ought to create a ZiPS of my very own
2:43
: (be aware: positively not doing that, can also’t try this)
2:43
: Mariners Rangers combating for WC3 with 7 out of their final 10 video games in opposition to one another. Similar to we thought at on the commerce deadline.
2:43
: It’s gonna be superior
2:44
: i absolutely anticipate to be gaslit by Mozeliak this offseason that dakota hudson made enhancements this yr to warrant a beginning spot in ’24
2:44
: An annual ritual
2:44
: Why aren’t peripheral stats for hitters not usually introduced up by award voters in comparison with pitcher peripherals? Is it as a result of a hitter can nonetheless achieve success with out main the league in xwOBA?
2:45
: Eh, I believe it’d be very bizarre to deliver up anticipated statistics in an awards dialogue, personally
2:45
: the pitcher peripherals we’re utilizing nonetheless care about what truly occurred on the sphere, you nkow?
2:45
: like, they decide and select which occasions to provide extra weight to
2:45
: however I believe the Isaac Paredes of all of it makes it kinda claer that after we can measure the outcomes nicely, we should always focus extra on these outcomes
2:46
: You communicate of pennant races and yesterday proved once more why baseball is the best recreation. 2 video games with super significance have been in the identical spot. Jays led the Purple Sox and Rays led the Orioles by 1 run with 2 outs and no one on the las of the ninth. Devers homered to tie and the O’s get a double from Frazier to tie, then a success from Rutschman with 2 outs within the tenth to tie it once more. The most effective video games I’ve watched and theintensity of the group was off the charts.
2:46
: You must like it
2:46
: What are your ideas on the orioles large win over the rays yesterday?
2:46
: What an superior sequence general, playoff races are actually enjoyable
2:46
: The Pirates are ONE recreation under .500 for the reason that all-star break and have gained 4 of their final 6 sequence. They began ridiculously scorching then went embarrassingly south and people two streaks of play have been lined extensively by the media. Then the narrative was frozen. The truth that they’ve managed to go .500 for nearly half a season since has been ignored. I assume my query is, why?
2:46
: Groups which are lifeless within the water for playoff races principally get their information ignored within the second half
2:46
: it’s not distinctive to the Pirates
2:47
: The Nats are 30-30 for the reason that break, the Mets are 27-32, Detroit is 31-29
2:48
: I haven’t actually heard a lot about any of these groups pulling out of a tailspin both
2:48
: It’s simply, eh, boring
2:48
: With the expanded playoffs and lack of sellers on the commerce deadline, we want mlb growth. Additionally the hole between coaching on the highest ranges is shrinking
2:48
: Yeah, I utterly agree with this
2:48
: do you assume the royals will ever be ok to take advantage of the truth that they’ve a pennies on the greenback Bobby Witt Jr.? He’s so good however they’re so unhealthy
2:48
: They’re simply too unhealthy
2:49
: Do you assume there’s an opportunity Wyatt Langford will get known as up within the subsequent week or two? May very well be a bench asset within the playoffs
2:49
: I do, and that feels wild
2:49
: however they’re clearly paving the trail for it
2:50
: Stadium scenario on the best way to being settled. Do you assume the subsequent mlb growth groups have a shot at profitable early like vegas golden knights?
2:50
: It actually will depend on the best way they arrange the growth draft
2:50
: my guess is that growth groups are going to be simply okay in baseball, organizations are simply so large and dev time is so lengthy in comparison with different sports activities
2:51
: however hockey is the closest to baseball in that sense so perhaps!
2:51
: I simply haven’t given a lot thought to it
2:51
: Simply need to throw out that David Ross has a number of seasons with a wRC+ larger than Yainer’s this season so perhaps we pump the breaks slightly.
2:51
: Nope, let’s enshrine him now
2:51
: He takes a cope with an early decide out, proper? Looks like he might signal for extra after he comes again from TJS
2:51
: I imply, I wouldn’t
2:52
: there’s simply not a lot distinction between 400 million and 500 million to me
2:52
: Sport clock has sped up video games, does this imply we are able to revoke the three batter rule?
2:52
: I imply…. I don’t see why
2:52
: mid-inning pitching modifications suck
2:53
: An argument in opposition to MLB growth: isn’t expertise already skinny? There are already 4-5 groups which are jokes from day 1 of every season
2:53
: I believe that has so much to do with these groups not placing in a legit effort
2:53
: the quantity of nasty aid arms is a giant argument in favor of growth to me
2:54
: Yesterday I found Cal Raleigh is twenty fifth in WAR for place gamers, third amongst catchers, and forward of Adley. So I went again and checked and he wasn’t on the Commerce Worth listing anyplace, whilst an honorable point out! Is that this only a scorching streak? Or is the trade not as excessive on him?
2:54
: Little little bit of each, little little bit of me being too low, little little bit of a mistrust of catcher worth that’s so closely reliant on framing
2:55
: let’s simply say that I’m not quick on Mariners followers who’re looking at this listing after I”m constructing it
2:55
: I believe that his age additionally performs a task, however yeah, I’d have him on there if I did it once more
2:55
: Jays, Rangers and Mariners would all choose the Twins to the Rays/O’s, proper? Would any NL WC crew need to play the Phils over MIL?
2:55
: I imply, perhaps the final day of the season?
2:55
: but it surely’s fairly necessary to really make the playoffs
2:56
: Ohtani can’t get $400 million if he’s only a DH, can he?
2:56
: If he have been solely ever going to DH once more, no
2:56
: however presumably he’s planning on returning to two-way play after rehabbing from damage. I’m actually curious to see what his market can be like and likewise terrified to challenge a contract for him
2:56
: Should be good to be Ben Clemens wealthy. 
2:56
: I imply, contingent on you already having 400 million {dollars}, 100 million {dollars} will not be a lot
2:56
: going from 0 to 100 million is clearly enormous
2:57
: How do you assume the free agent pitching market performs out? Ohtani’s not a giant issue, Urias ought to be finished, Nola has not been himself, and Snell’s peripherals are usually not near his ERA. Appears like somebody like Giolito goes to do significantly better than most individuals would anticipate simply due to lack of provide.
2:57
: 100% agreed with this
2:58
: There are only a lot of groups that want starters yearly
2:58
: The wild card races in each leagues are nice. Who do have lacking the reduce?
2:59
: I assume I’ll go along with SF/CIN/Miami on the NL aspect (actually shut for me, I needed to place the Marlins in), and Texas on the AL aspect
2:59
: However that is pure guesswork, to be clear
2:59
: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi, you’re our solely hope!
3:00
: Gotta throw this one in as a result of I’m quickly nearing a conclusion to at this time’s chat, gotta go make lunch after which preserve writing about Josh Hader
3:00
: How do guys like Ragans and Y. Diaz slip by means of the cracks? Im positive it occurs on a regular basis, Paredes is one other instance, however groups simply throw within the towel too early? Or, are different groups simply playing and have the taking part in time obtainable? I dont assume anybody was surprised on the time of the commerce by the packages.
3:00
: Yeah, I believe it’s simply groups chucking up the sponge too early, but additionally, we all know that gamers typically take a very long time to show their true expertise. The chances of somebody figuring out are decrease if they’ve had a foul yr or two, however not zero
3:01
: it’d be one factor if a crew have been systematically mis-evaluating these guys (cough Cardinals within the mid-2010’s cough), however I dunno, you’re gonna miss one or two right here or there even when you’re doing every little thing proper
3:01
: Are the Mariners ready to supply a aggressive deal to Ohtani? They give the impression of being compelling from a expertise standpoint(pitching depth + Julio)
3:01
: I believe so. They’re my guess for the place he finally ends up proper now
3:01
: Thanks for doing these, as ever. So, Small pattern dimension theater, and many others. however how a lot inventory can/ought to I put into Ronny Mauricio’s September and (as a studying/teachable second) particularly stuff like his Savant?
What’s your feeling on him, Baty, the newborn Mets, and many others?
3:02
: I’m nonetheless excessive on Baty, perhaps as a result of I’ve let ZiPS speak me into it
3:02
: I believe Alvarez is nice, after all
3:02
: Mauricio? I imply…. I dunno, you may get as excited as you need. I’m not blown away, but it surely’s good that he’s not falling on his face
3:03
: baseball expertise worldwide is in any respect time highs. The hole between AAA, Korean, Japanese leagues and the majors is narrower than ever. The coaching strategies and expertise that faculties, minors, and personal instruction have, plus all of the movies and information on-line, make it simpler than ever to get higher
3:03
: Organizational roster shrinking is occurring at a time when mlb rosters ought to be increasing. Concussion protocols, inning limits, and trendy damage remedy nearly requires 28 man rosters yr spherical.
3:03
: I agree with each of those
3:03
: and on that be aware
3:03
: I gotta run and begin heating lunch up
3:03
: have an amazing week everybody, and benefit from the playoff races
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
