2:01
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I’m going to maintain it quick immediately, as I’ve some vital dog-related enterprise (it’s a stroll) to get to in about 45 minutes, however I’ll attempt to reply as a lot as I can in that point
2:02
: Is there any doable purpose Ozzie Albies continues to change hit? He’s an ideal hitter from the best aspect and never good from the left aspect with loads of pattern dimension at this level. Why proceed to do that? Participant consolation, groups not eager to push for him to present it up?
2:02
: Participant consolation is my guess
2:02
: I’m completely with you, I feel he’d be higher served as a righty if he’s able to affordable AB’s in opposition to righties
2:03
: In the event you have been the Padres trying to discover one other starter earlier than the season started, what kind of trades/gamers would you be exploring? Probably transferring Kim in return?
2:03
: I’d attempt to signal Michael Wacha
2:03
: I don’t suppose it makes loads of sense to commerce from depth when one of many actually interesting issues in regards to the Padres lineup is depth
2:03
: Does growth make it tougher for groups to carry cities/areas hostage for stadiums/ growth/funding?
2:05
: I feel it does, and I feel there’s a purpose that MLB has held off on transferring groups
2:05
: If a veteran participant comparable to Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, or Andrelton Simmons has a formidable exhibiting on the World Baseball Basic, do you suppose they might flip that into one other MLB alternative?
2:06
: Yeah, I utterly suppose so
2:07
: I don’t suppose it’s an accident that they’re timing it the way in which they did
2:08
: Now that the ‘ghost runner’ rule is now everlasting, I wish to level out that it irrationally annoys me that individuals name it a ‘ghost runner’. Ghost runners are when you’ve gotten an imaginary individual on base since you don’t have sufficient gamers to play. The individual placed on second in further innings is, actually, very actual and never imaginary in any respect. Subsequently that individual shouldn’t be really a ‘ghost’ in any significant sense of the phrase.
2:08
: Any main impression on sport technique that you simply anticipate kind immediately’s competitors committee rule modifications? For anyone who missed this minor merchandise:runner on 2nd in extras has been made everlasting (typically known as the ghost runner, the Manfred man, or, if you happen to’re Ben Lindberg, the zombie runner) and place gamers pitching is proscribed to conditions the place you’re 10 runs forward or 8 runs behind.
2:08
: Ben Lindbergh would love to listen to you say this
2:09
: I agree, not a ghost however a zombie
2:09
: Hello Ben. I’ve actually loved your work testing the accuracy of EV percentiles as a predictor of efficiency/breakouts. Is there anyplace you’ll be able to entry this granular EV information for minor leaguers, except for their avg and max EVs? I’ve questioned it’s much more important for prospects, given their usually decrease avg EV, and presumably wider variance given their relative lack of bodily energy and in-the-box immaturity concerning zone/chase/and so forth. Thanks.
2:09
: Not publicly, no
2:09
: The way in which to do it’s to search out some folks on a workforce and ask them for it
2:09
: Which is a irritating reply, I’m conscious
2:09
: Hello Ben – you talked about snowboarding in Revelstoke final week. In the event you go there positively make your solution to Golden’s Kicking Horse as effectively. These are probably the most aggressive resorts in BC.
2:09
: Good to know. I don’t know once we’ll do that journey however I actually do wish to do it
2:10
: Ben, what do you consider guys who throw slider that transfer on common extra arm than glove aspect? Cory Abbott, Familia, Tim Mayza, all have this sort of slider. I can’t pinpoint the trigger
2:10
: I feel what this mainly means is that they throw a gyroball
2:10
: I feel gyro sliders are completely good pitches, although they work for various causes than common sliders
2:11
: If Vaughn Grissom improves sufficient defensively to deal with SS, is there actually a lot distinction between him and Wander Franco?
2:11
: Do you consider there’s a “change of surroundings” impact, or is it only a dumb factor we are saying once we don’t know why a participant isn’t producing as anticipated? Are you conscious of any analysis that implies underperforming gamers are extra probably to enhance if they modify groups?
2:11
: Whereas I’ve not seen any proof to that impact, it makes excellent sense to me
2:11
: not {that a} change of surroundings magically cures them
2:14
: however that it appears like a greater wager that one thing will click on when new coaches get entangled, they usually can reside in a brand new place, cope with completely different folks, and so forth
2:14
: I used to be watching a sport from 1988 on the MLB Nice Video games channel on Pluto TV and the announcers have been bemoaning how guys have been “unable to place the ball in play” when a specific participant struck out with a runner on third and fewer than two outs. Some subjects are evergreen lol
2:14
: Pardon my ignorance, Ben, however what’s the distinction between ZiPS and ZiPS DC? (and please don’t inform me the latter are performed when Dan’s at a Starbucks within the nation’s capitol). Thanks!
2:14
: ZiPS DC makes use of Dan’s fee statistic projections however Depth Charts taking part in time projections
2:15
: Primarily, I’d contemplate Depth Charts to be ‘if all the pieces goes in addition to we anticipate’ and ZiPS uncooked taking part in time projections to bake in loads of harm
2:15
: A lot of chatter a couple of Kyle Tucker extension. Do you suppose it will get performed? IMO that is the final probability for it to occur earlier than he hits FA in few years
2:15
: I do, I feel it matches with Houston’s MO and they need to be capable to provide Tucker a pile of cash that can set him up for all times whereas giving them at the least some low cost
2:15
: Wonderful article in regards to the Yu Darvish extension. Any concept why some pitchers appear virtually ageless and others decline quickly of their 30s? Can groups give you a solution to predict this higher?
2:15
: If I knew, I’d be promoting that data to groups for some ungodly sum
2:16
: Between the stadium scenario, the possession crying poor, the dearth of any thrilling Main League expertise, the skinny farm system, and being in a division with a juggernaut, two groups on the rise, & regardless of the Angels are… Do the current day A’s have the bleakest outlook of any franchise in current reminiscence? I can’t bear in mind one other workforce having, really, not a single factor going for them.
2:16
: I really feel just like the Pirates are intermittently on this class, and the Orioles six or seven years in the past as effectively
2:17
: The factor Oakland has that retains them out of ‘worst franchise’ territory is that I kinda consider within the entrance workplace
2:17
: Does it look good now? No, however perhaps they’ll be capable to flip it round
2:17
: Talking of growth, isn’t the present nice untapped market alternative transferring a longtime franchise (Tampa, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland…identify a low income/low-cost billionaire proprietor workforce) to a market comparable to Nashville, San Antonio or Charlotte the place they’d get a free stadium, keen native followers and absurd tax breaks to maneuver?
2:18
: That’s definitely an untapped market alternative. However you could possibly additionally use these cities to play the prevailing cities into committing more cash, then gather some juicy growth charges by additionally including a workforce there
2:19
: I feel that’s the transfer if you happen to’re really revenue maximizing as mlb
2:19
: Do you purchase Jazz having a breakout 12 months to coincide along with his online game cowl?
2:19
: The one breakout Jazz wants is well being
2:19
: If he retains up final 12 months’s fee numbers, that’s a breakout
2:20
: Alex Reyes and the Dodgers… if anybody can repair him it’s these guys. Proper?
2:20
: That’s definitely how I really feel
2:20
: undecided if this falls below your cooking space of experience however i’ll ask in any case. i’ve an electrical range and have tried just a few recipes utilizing a forged iron. the recipes will name for cooking on excessive, which i do, however then all the pieces appears to prepare dinner extraordinarily quicker than what the recipe says. like this led to me making an attempt a medium uncommon steak that turned out effectively performed, and a pork tenderloin that ended up alright however smoked the home up. is there one thing i’m lacking in setting warmth ranges when utilizing a forged iron?
2:21
: I’d like to know the reply to this from a scientiic stnadpoint. What I can inform you is that I’ve encountered this downside and have give you a do-it-yourself resolution
2:22
: I run it on excessive for a couple of minute to start out up, then decrease it to medium excessive
2:22
: I feel it has one thing to do with the interaction of the massive cooking floor of an electrical range and forged iron’s excessive warmth retention, however I have no idea the specficis
2:22
: Why are many publications saying that Tatis Jr will play proper when he comes again. Wouldn’t it make extra sense to maintain Soto in proper and let Fernando study left ?
2:22
: Presumably as a result of somebody has informed them that
2:23
: Any explicit baseball books you advocate, past the large ones like Moneyball and Ball 4?
2:23
: Veeck as in Wreck is nice
2:23
: I actually like The Arm by Jeff Passan, underratedly good
2:24
: Hey Ben. Did you discover any attention-grabbing distinction in your listing of ev gainers when altering the pctile threshold?
2:24
: Not likely, although I solely plyaed round with it for just a few completely different fee
2:24
: What was the purpose of the Puk-Bleday deal for the A’s? Prefer it doesn’t appear to make any sense apart from the truth that Bleday is farther from arb..
2:24
: I’d say you hit the nail on the pinnacle
2:24
: Is there a date set for Prospect Week? The (meaningless) video games are lower than two weeks away now!
2:24
: Final week of Feb, I consider
2:24
: No less than PNC Park is sweet!
2:25
: Can’t argue with that. The Coliseum is the worst stadium I’ve been to, and PNC is among the high 5 or so
2:25
: Why do younger gamers persistently signal what seem like below-market offers to stick with the Braves? Are different groups lacking out by not providing these offers?
2:26
: I feel that if you happen to exclude the Albies deal, it’s a matter of the Braves being prepared to supply loads of monetary certainty rapidly
2:26
: I don’t suppose under market is an ideal definition, as a result of certain they’re under free agent market stage however not likely extension stage
2:26
: I do suppose that groups ought to be extra prepared to supply extensions to good younger gamers. I get the sense that the Astros are on this common mannequin too, and it’s understanding effectively for them
2:27
: Have you ever learn in regards to the Ohio prepare derailment story or, just like the New York Instances, are you extra obsessive about UFOs immediately?
2:27
: Yeah it’s very scary
2:27
: I don’t know lots about poisonous chemical compounds however like…. they appear dangerous? And it appears notably dangerous that they’re shipped by trains that don’t have a sterling security report
2:27
: Relating to electrical stoves – the radiant coils are terribly unresponsive. Electrical induction, nonetheless, is incredible and fairly low-cost as of late..
2:28
: Now this I’ve performed some analysis on. Once I purchase my very own place, I’m getting an induction range for certain
2:28
: Not each chef loves them however the downsides appear extraordinarily small relative to how nice they’re
2:28
: The Yankees and the Braves are each large-market groups going into the season with a giant ?? in left area. Is {that a} smart technique? In different phrases, if after 2-3 months it’s nonetheless a prepare wreck, do you suppose there can be comparatively easy-to-find expertise to improve the place they usually gained’t be overly harmed by these preliminary months with a black gap within the lineup?
2:28
: I feel it’s worse for the Braves than the Yankees, as a result of Oswaldo Cabrera is healthier than what the Braves are operating on the market
2:28
: And also you additionally get a free have a look at Oswaldo Cabrera
2:29
: no one wants a free have a look at Eddie Rosario
2:29
: You do want magnetic pans for induction to work. It might include a considerable upfront price in case your present pans aren’t appropriate. To not say induction is dangerous, but it surely’s simply one thing to concentrate on
2:29
: Yep, good level
2:29
: As a Stros fan…I want Dana Brown had gotten right here about 3 years in the past to attempt to finalize extensions to maintain Springer and Correa right here. However haven’t that mentioned…I do know he identify dropped Altuve and Bregman as being extension candidates with their 2 years left. Do you suppose that’s actually a good suggestion although? Or does that reek of being just like Miggy’s/Yelich’s scenario to you too?
2:29
: The Astros have a giant fats pile of cash
2:30
: I’d be extra taken with extending Bregman than Altuve however I feel I’d settle for eitehr if I have been an Astros fan
2:30
: they may be overpays, however they’ll most likely be a reasonably near market fee deal for a reasonably good participant
2:30
: the Yelich deal appears to be like dangerous immediately, but when the Brewers weren’t working on a funds finest described as ‘the change David Stearns finds across the ballpark day-after-day’ it wouldn’t be talked about as a lot, they usually’re nonetheless fairly good anyway
2:31
: And the Miggy deal by no means stopped the Tigers from doing something they needed to do
2:31
: For a house prepare dinner, electrical induction is fantastic and beats gasoline IMO simply on ease of cleanup. That is talking as somebody who purchased a comparatively low finish induction vary and moved to a spot with a reasonably good propane vary – I favored the induction higher..
2:31
: This week on StoveGraphs
2:31
: Yusei Kikuchi has a beard. Do you suppose that is the distinction maker for him?
2:31
: Ooooooh. We’ll must get a beard grade earlier than I can say for certain
2:31
: concerning “change of surroundings” enhancements and comparable robust to measure issues like if a participant is “clutch” or not, i really feel prefer it’s all stuff that actually occurs for a subset of gamers however the total pattern inhabitants masks any type of measurable modifications. and the one manner of understanding who belongs to that subset the place’s it’s true is to personally know the gamers effectively sufficient to grasp their mindset.
2:31
: Good solution to put this
2:32
: Thanks for all the midwinter EV explorations! Since “EV” could as effectively be Oneil Cruz’s center identify, right here’s my query: Within the final month of the season, his Okay fee dropped, his hard-hit fee went up, as did his Avg. EV. As somebody who watched almost all of his plate appearances final 12 months, I can say he was noticeably simply not swinging as onerous. Is it as simple as, “In the event you’re 6-7, simply don’t swing so damned onerous, and also you’ll hit the ball higher?”
2:32
: Uh, most likely?
2:32
: He’s simply soooooo robust
2:32
: I like me some Oneil Cruz, and his energy is so off the charts that I’d settle for some downgrade in it for extra contact, little question
2:32
: Does the DSG collapse sign the top of native RSNs on cable and usher in common native streaming?
2:32
: Nah, but it surely would possibly sign the start of the top, if that is smart
2:33
: Talking of LF for the NYY, Aaron Hicks had a really dangerous 12 months on the plate final 12 months. Might a few of that be contributed to the tendon sheath harm that he sustained within the earlier season? Any hopes for some sort of bounce again?
2:33
: Oh yeah, completely
2:33
: That’s two choices that I’m semi taken with
2:33
: Which gamers that aren’t in MLB organizations are you most excited to see within the WBC? I’m excited to see Yamamoto pitch
2:34
: That is perhaps foolish of me, and I don’t know the way a lot he’ll play, however Wladimir Balentien is taking part in!
2:34
: In the event you had to decide on between 500 at bats of Jason Heyward, Kevin Kiermier, or Victor Robles who would you like?
2:34
: In all probability Kiermaier
2:35
: I do know he’s fairly poor in opposition to lefties however I like his protection one of the best of the group and suppose that he’ll do sufficient offensively
2:35
: What do you see out of Andrew Vaughn this 12 months? Looks as if a participant who will profit getting out of the outfield, having another hitters get wholesome round him for help, no shifts and so forth
2:35
: I dunno how a lot I purchase the shifts affecting him, however getting out of the outfield and simply one other 12 months within the majors are each good
2:35
: What do you consider the concept of tying the WAR positional adjustment to leaguewide offensive output from the place?
2:36
: I don’t prefer it, as a result of how good Aaron Decide is shouldn’t have an effect on whether or not your workforce’s 3b or RF with comparable strains are extra beneficial
2:36
: What are your ideas on Jose Abreu? Bounceback? He’s in a brilliant lineup in Houston and can begin day-after-day.
2:36
: bounceback, or simply proceed to be fairly good
2:36
: Your ideas on Miguel Vargas this 12 months?
2:36
: I’m only a perpetual Vargas fan, to be honest, however yeah: love him
2:36
: My son skiied (sp?) at Revelstoke and cherished it. Induction stoves are getting higher and higher and cheaper. All the time prepare dinner at a decrease temp with forged iron. Um, why can’t we simply have ties and no further innings?
2:36
: I’d love ties
2:36
: I imply, not love them
2:36
: However love the novelty occasionally
2:36
: 11 innings, then a tie, no ghost runners, bam
2:37
: Like him or not, I’m anticipating a superb season out of Marcell Ozuna. He was coming off a serious harm final season. He hit the ball very well the final month of the season. Appeared like his outdated self. Each projection system has him above common with the bat.
2:37
: I’m not notably purchased in, however that doesn’t clear up their LF downside anyway, the Braves should not very taken with taking part in him on the market and he has a slot within the lineup as DH
2:38
: I don’t suppose there’s a worse outfielder on their roster than Ozuna, so I feel if he’s ok to play, it’ll largely be at DH
2:38
: Which is extra more likely to regress in 2023: Strider or Harris?
2:38
: Oof, it is a robust one. I feel I’ll go Harris, regardless of considering he’s additionally extra more likely to discover one other gear
2:39
: What number of years of Yu Darvish’s 6 12 months contract are the Padres anticipating to have a helpful beginning pitcher? I assume it’s not 6, but it surely must be greater than 2.
2:39
: yeah like, 4?
2:39
: relies upon what helpful means
2:39
: It could hardly shock me to see him nonetheless be a helpful fifth starter at 42
2:40
: Is there any private pointers you observe for projecting a man’s bounce from NPB to MLB of their first 12 months?
2:40
: Yeah, I low cost hitter projections from ZiPS and Steamer and customarily settle for pitching projections
2:40
: I’m conscious that they’ve performed extra work on it than I’ve, however that simply helps hold my thoughts comfortable about not getting too forward of myself on rookies
2:41
: Is Giancarlo Stanton a Corridor of Famer. He’ll virtually definitely get to 500 HR.
2:41
: I don’t suppose he’s, but when he had hit 60 homers in a season ever, I feel he can be
2:41
: Oakland vivid spot: they’re the one skilled workforce in Oakland. Some followers really do take pleasure in going to a sport and never watching on TV so in the event that they don’t transfer, repair the stadium scenario, or get new house owners that didn’t alienate the fan base they now not must compete with the Raiders and Warriors for the reside attendance a part of fandom. Some groups can by no means have that to their benefit.
2:42
: Yeah, strong level. Oakland has nice followers. Even their minor league soccer workforce has good spuport
2:42
: Talking of old-timers, Eric Sogard is suiting up for Czech Republic within the WBC
2:42
: How about these CHIIIIEEEEEFS!
2:42
: I watch loads of soccer (I gained my dynasty fantasy league this 12 months, everybody indulge in my presence, and so forth) and the NFL is fortunate that that sport was enjoyable
2:43
: between the disastrous CIN/KC officiating and the harm farce in SF/PHI, they couldn’t afford one other clunker. If Mahomes hadn’t come again after rolling his ankle, hoo boy
2:43
: Do you suppose Thairo Estrada is the on a regular basis 2B for the Giants or does he transfer round within the outfield? Kapler talked about him getting appears to be like in CF, however between Slater and Yastrzemski I don’t see him getting a lot time there and the nook spots are already full of fellows who shouldn’t be there within the first place.
2:43
: I don’t actually know why he’d get CF run except a kind of two guys is harm
2:43
: I agree that Slater/Yaz makes for a reasonably strong CF platoon
2:44
: Possibly if Slater wants a time without work and a righty is on the mound?
2:44
: er, a lefty, sorry
2:44
: The A’s-Rays 2019 wild card sport attendance was 54,000.
2:44
: Yeah Oakland followers present up
2:44
: re: Oneil Cruz.
His numbers went up on the finish of the season as a result of the Pirates stopped letting him face lefties
2:44
: I imply…. that looks as if a superb plan!
2:44
: Are Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly underrated? Thanks.
2:44
: Yeah, however not extraordinarily so
2:45
: I feel that they’re broadly thought of to be strong however not wonderful, and that feels fairly near the mark for me
2:45
: Most Yankees followers would most likely join Anthony Volpe slashing .257/.310/.451 with 24 HR as a 4 WAR second baseman by age 25…which is strictly what Gleyber Torres put up final 12 months, in one other “down” 12 months (albeit a retracement from 2020-21). So why is there such an axe to grind in buying and selling Torres, in addition to workforce management years? My private thought is Torres has the construct/vary to maneuver to 3b to make room for Volpe, and change Donaldson after ’23.
2:45
: I don’t suppose the workforce shares that view, they appear fairly content material to maintain him and let him play almost day-after-day, which is what he deserves given his efficiency
2:46
: Alright, on that notice, it’s canine stroll time. Thanks for chatting with me immediately, and if I didn’t reply your questions, I’ll attempt to get you subsequent time. Have an ideal week, everybody.
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
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