Attaboys and Get ‘Em Next Times: Reviewing My Preseason Predictions

I’ll degree with you, FanGraphs reader: I can’t think about that FanGraphs evaluation is precisely what you’re most concerned with proper now, baseball-wise. The thrilling issues happening are the video games on the sphere as they occur. These playoff races are wonderful. The schedule units up with an exquisite mixture of both-teams-in video games and rivals enjoying spoiler. In that context, I can’t think about that many individuals are dying to examine Tommy Kahnle’s changeup-heavy arsenal, simply to choose on a random article I not too long ago wrote.

That’s by no means stopped me from writing about no matter random factor caught my eye, however I assumed I’d make the most of a sluggish week (once more, simply in my type of baseball evaluation, not in precise baseball) to go over some predictions I made earlier than the season. I prefer to look again by myself work for just a few causes — not simply to delight in successes, however that’s definitely a part of it. It’s additionally helpful to speak course of and separate dangerous outcomes from dangerous ex-ante selections, although to be trustworthy, that’s actually laborious, so I’m not sure I’ll get it proper at this time.

I’ve named the column after one among my favourite bizarre sports activities issues. I at all times knew this, however I’ve seen it extra since I began enjoying in a leisure softball league. After you come back to the dugout, there’s a reasonably good likelihood somebody will slap your butt with their glove. It doesn’t matter what you probably did, there’s at all times a purpose to. Did you rating a run or make an amazing defensive play? It usually comes with an “attaboy” or “option to go.” Did you make an out or embarrass your self within the area? “Get ‘em subsequent time” is almost assured. The butt slap? That’s a continuing. The phrases that go along with it? They’re versatile. With out additional ado, let’s determine whether or not my hypothetical dugout needs to be congratulating or consoling me.

Hitter BreakoutsI wrote a mini-article about 4 gamers I beloved for 2023 after a panel dialogue on the SABR Analytics Convention. You’ve most likely heard me wax poetic concerning the first participant on that record: Lars Nootbaar. I don’t suppose this was a very daring declare; as I discussed in that article, he actually broke out in 2022, and I used to be principally simply speculating that the issues he did properly final yr would proceed into 2023.

Whether or not you’d rating this as one in my column comes all the way down to how you are feeling about merely repeating final season. Nootbaar posted principally the identical wOBA and wRC+ as final yr, however with extra BABIP and fewer energy. His energy nonetheless appears to be like good, to be clear; whether or not you’re concerned with Statcast numbers or simply the attention check, it appears to be like about the identical as final yr, simply with much less house run luck. He posted the third-best batting line amongst Cardinals with cheap enjoying time and racked up the second-most WAR regardless of lacking a handful of video games all year long.

I can’t give myself a lot credit score for saying {that a} factor that was already happening would preserve occurring. However to the extent that one of many expertise in making breakout picks is discovering breakouts after they’ve occurred and glitzing it as much as make the choose really feel extra enjoyable, I believe I did a superb job right here.

My different hitter breakout in that article was Riley Greene, and he’s a extra fascinating case. I assumed his strikeout price was sure to enhance, even when he didn’t change his method on the plate, and doubtless even when he began swinging and lacking extra. Hey, what have you learnt: his swinging-strike price elevated by greater than two proportion factors, and but his strikeout price declined marginally.

The hellacious energy he displayed within the minors was one more reason to guess on Greene, and that additionally performed out. He completely clubbed the ball this yr and deserved higher energy output than he bought whilst he elevated his ISO by 50 factors. Positive, he had his justifiable share of batted ball luck when it got here to hitting for common, and he had Tommy John surgical procedure that ended his season prematurely, however the thesis that Greene would strike out much less and do extra injury on contact even with out significant adjustments was just about spot on.

Pitcher BreakoutsThese ones weren’t so good! In that very same mini-article, I highlighted two pitchers: Taylor Rogers and Tyler Anderson. I’ll begin with Rogers, who was primarily in that article as a result of I wanted 4 names to speak about and solely had three I actually appreciated. My thesis there was that he had a excessive ground as a strong lefty-killing reliever, and that if he developed a cutter, he may flip into among the finest general relievers within the sport.

That didn’t occur. Rogers continues to be the identical sinker/slider pitcher he’s at all times been, and he walked extra batters than ever earlier than in his profession this yr. Of explicit fear, he walked 10.9% of opposing lefties; I can tolerate excessive stroll charges from platoon specialists so long as they’re strolling the robust matchups, however he misplaced winnable battles too usually.

If there’s a lesson right here, it’s not betting on a pitcher to provide you with a brand new pitch. I don’t really feel significantly dangerous about pondering Rogers had a excessive ground; his stroll price ballooned and he nonetheless posted a 3.71 FIP and three.33 ERA. However a breakout implies one thing thrilling, and he doesn’t actually match that invoice, so this one looks like a miss, although not a very damaging one.

Anderson was lots worse than I anticipated. He, too, had severe command points; his 10.2% stroll price was greater than double final yr’s mark. I hypothesized that his new drop-down sinker would assist him deal with same-handed hitters, a wierd drawback for a junkballing lefty, so in fact he bought completely tattooed by lefties this yr, and that sinker appeared to be a part of the issue.

The factor that made me concerned with Anderson within the first place was his arm slot change towards lefties, and he doubled down on it this yr. He added a slider from that decrease arm slot, although he didn’t use it significantly usually. His largest situation was that he couldn’t command pitches from that low launch level very properly; he walked 14.3% of opposing lefties, a completely terrible mark, and that goes a great distance in the direction of explaining his ugly platoon splits towards them.

I’m nonetheless concerned with specializing in pitchers who can break up the handedness battle in two and develop completely different arsenals for every, however I believe it’s clever to be respectful of how necessary a superb growth and training employees is for such a tough method. Anderson prospered with the Dodgers and has to date floundered with the Angels. Assuming I’m smarter than the Dodgers, that I noticed one thing distinctive that they missed, is clearly foolish. Betting on consistency from a pitcher who had beforehand made a profession out of inconsistency can be a head scratcher. I’m principally proud of the concept of betting on somebody who made enormous adjustments, however I most likely ought to have spent extra time desirous about the dangers that include these adjustments.

Unheralded ProspectsI’ve been making an attempt to determine sleeper hitters for just a few years as a part of our prospect protection, however as I discussed in that writeup this yr, the method is getting tougher over time. This yr, the wheels actually fell off. I highlighted Angel Martinez, Osleivis Basabe, Gabriel Martinez, Esteury Ruiz, Yeiner Fernandez, and Jhonkensy Noel. Of that group, solely Fernandez had what I’d think about a profitable offensive season, although Basabe at the least reached the majors on the sooner aspect of his timeline to salvage somewhat little bit of my dignity. This isn’t what you’d prefer to see for a listing of wRC+’s of hitters I recognized as fascinating:

I’d prefer to inform you that that is simply an instance of fine course of and dangerous end result, however I don’t suppose it’s. The large shortcoming of the methodology I’m utilizing — principally combing via earlier minor league knowledge for skillsets most correlated with eventual main league success — is that it doesn’t incorporate new knowledge. It’s not precisely straightforward to seek out, however you will get Statcast-style knowledge for loads of minor leaguers at this level, and it provides a helpful new dimension of research.

Ten years in the past, the subset of men that didn’t seem like conventional energy hitters, posted strong minor league numbers, and weren’t high 100 prospects contained a combination of true slap hitters and little guys who crushed the ball or barreled it up with nice frequency. As of late, everybody has gotten higher at figuring out that second group as a result of we’ve got higher knowledge. That makes for opposed choice; the blokes with good minor league numbers and good batted ball knowledge are simply capital-D dudes. They aren’t flying beneath the radar anymore. Noel was the one hitter on my record who doesn’t match into that “weak batted ball class,” however his dangers are extra of the “yeah however can he hit” selection anyway.

Put merely, I don’t suppose that the type of sorting I’m doing is ample to determine unnoticed prospects with excessive upsides anymore, as a result of the type of guys that this might need captured 15 years in the past are actually getting seen. Analysis has simply gotten higher, and if I wish to discover good hitters that conventional evaluators are lacking, I’ll should get higher, too. I’m undecided there’s a straightforward “repair” to the methodology, however I’m excited to attempt some new concepts this offseason. Which of them? I couldn’t presumably say till I’ve spent extra time making an attempt. However that is the preseason prediction I’m least proud of, and I hope to have one thing higher as a replacement sooner somewhat than later.

Playoff Groups and AwardsI’ve already talked a good quantity about my predictions due to one oddball: I picked the Orioles to win the AL East in our employees predictions. That one labored out fairly properly, I’d say. The overall predictions had been as follows:

I additionally predicted a World Sequence of Dodgers over Astros — boring! I’m going to finish up doing fairly properly within the AL and fairly poorly within the NL, although I believe that lots of people bought bamboozled within the Senior Circuit. Everybody on employees predicted that the Padres would make the playoffs, and virtually everybody had the Cardinals too.

I believe that the lesson I’m going to remove from these is to stay with my technique, which is to principally choose the most probably groups but in addition attempt to submit just a few undervalued choices. I didn’t suppose the Orioles had been the most probably workforce to win the AL East, however I did suppose that they stood a good likelihood of creating the playoffs, and in addition that nobody would choose them. I like that juxtaposition, and I picked the Dodgers to win the NL West for the same purpose, imagine it or not. Solely three of 27 prognosticators had them successful the division, and I assumed it was near a 50/50 shot.

I’m probably not positive find out how to assess the thought course of behind these predictions on reflection, apart from to say that if you wish to stand out on workouts like this, it’s a good suggestion to hunt just a few undervalued choices. You possibly can’t simply go rogue on each single choose, and leaning into the Giants as an alternative of the Diamondbacks as my unlikely workforce within the NL didn’t pan out, however I prefer to think about the train as a bracket-picking contest, and it’s laborious to win should you simply go all chalk. Sprinkling in just a few 10% probabilities that the remainder of the pickers are weighing as 0% probabilities is a enjoyable means to try this.

To be trustworthy, I don’t have lots to say about my awards picks. I didn’t put as a lot time into these as I did into the playoff groups. I principally went chalk with Cy Younger and Rookie of the 12 months choices, after which picked MVPs based mostly on which groups I assumed would have viable contenders on nice groups. If the Astros and Mets had delivered enormous seasons, I believe Alvarez and Lindor would have been on the coronary heart of them a number of the time.

Thanks for studying via this largely self-centered train. I believe there’s one thing to be discovered from wanting again on outdated predictions, to carry myself accountable if nothing else. I knew a number of the conclusions earlier than writing this text, however I nonetheless discovered extra about what I dislike about my sleeper hitter methodology, in addition to what I do like about just a few different predictions I made. Hopefully after I write one thing related for subsequent yr, I’m 5% higher on the train on account of doing this at this time. All in all, I believe I’d award myself an attaboy, although with some clear get ‘em subsequent instances within the combine.