Athletics Bolster Pitching Staff With Ex-NPB Hurler Shintaro Fujinami

He’s not the Japanese beginning pitcher that followers have been seemingly hoping for, however the Athletics signed Shintaro Fujinami to a one-year deal value $3.25 million, only a couple days earlier than the January 14 deadline to signal posted gamers. With most starting-caliber gamers already traded away for prospects, Fujinami turns into simply the sixth Oakland participant not on a league minimal or arbitration contract, becoming a member of a set of names together with fellow worldwide signee Drew Rucinski.

Eleven years in the past, when an 18-year previous Fujinami was chosen within the first spherical of the 2012 NPB draft by the Hanshin Tigers, many evaluators thought-about him higher than Shohei Ohtani, additionally taken in that spherical. Fujinami was well-known as a prospect popping out of highschool, the place he led his staff to victory in the summertime Koshien match by throwing complete-game shutouts on consecutive days, then tossing one other shutout to clinch a junior world championship lower than two weeks later. He had a wonderful rookie season with the Tigers, posting a 2.75 ERA over 24 begins, and continued this excellence from 2014 to ’16 with a 3.02 ERA and 16.2 WAR, putting within the high seven pitchers by WAR every year.

Then issues began to come back off the rails. The place Fujinami had succeeded regardless of his below-average command in his first 4 years, his strike-throwing points turned debilitating after that. In 2017, he walked a sixth of his batters confronted; in ’18, his ERA climbed to five.32 because the stroll points remained. He made only one begin in 2019 and has performed a part of every season since within the minor leagues.

Since 2020, Fujinami has made 27 main league begins and 34 aid appearances, together with 21 farm staff appearances (19 of them begins). Whereas he nonetheless had a double-digit stroll fee in 2020 and ’21, his 7.6% clip in ’22 was one of the best of his NPB profession, as he mainly matched the league-average fee of seven.7%. His efficiency within the strikeout and stroll division notably improved after a stretch within the bullpen and within the minors, with wonderful peripheral numbers within the final two months of the season. He completed the 12 months with a 3.38 ERA in 66.2 innings, however as a result of lowered NPB offensive atmosphere, that resulted in only a 102 ERA- (92 FIP-). Whereas he wasn’t throwing extra pitches within the strike zone than earlier than, he considerably lower down on the variety of waste pitches thrown, as evidenced by a career-high chase fee.

Whereas Fujinami’s management has been up and down, typically instances resulting in disastrous performances, his uncooked stuff is superb. He’s all the time been a tough thrower, particularly by NPB requirements, however he hit a profession excessive final season, averaging 96.3 mph and sometimes reaching again for triple digits. The one NPB starters who threw tougher have been fellow MLB newcomer Kodai Senga (96.5 mph) and 21-year previous phenom Roki Sasaki (98.9 mph), who almost threw two consecutive excellent video games again in April. Fujinami fires from a low vertical launch level, permitting the pitch to play up past its form because of its flat vertical method angle. His fastball has a hybrid form with way more horizontal break than most four-seam fastballs and extra vertical carry than the common sinker. In line with sourced knowledge, few MLB fastballs examine to Fujinami’s when it comes to motion and launch level; comparable heaters embody these of Nathan Eovaldi and Aaron Nola. Plugging this knowledge into Cameron Grove’s pitch grader outputs a full plus grade by MLB requirements; Eric Longenhagen’s analysis of Fujinami on The Board places a 55 on it.

Previous to 2022, Fujinami’s predominant secondary was a bullet slider, which he threw as much as a 3rd of the time in some seasons. Like his fastball, it reached a profession excessive in velocity final 12 months, averaging over 86 mph, overwhelmed out solely by Sasaki. Whereas the pitch had little motion exterior the consequences of gravity, it was a critical change of tempo in comparison with the intense tail and carry of his fastball. In consequence, it induced probably the most swings and misses of his arsenal, but additionally was hit the toughest when batters did make contact.

Fujinami additionally scaled up the utilization of his splitter final season, throwing it greater than 1 / 4 of the time; it had beforehand been a distant third to the fastball and slider. Clocking in at 91.4 mph, it was the hardest-thrown splitter amongst beginning pitchers in each NPB and MLB and served as his finest pitch. In line with knowledge from Sports activities Data Options, his splitter had a greater put-away fee than his different pitches in addition to wonderful outcomes on contact, together with a minuscule 9% hard-hit fee. This emphasis on the splitter additionally seemingly explains why he was capable of get way more chases than earlier seasons; the pitch has near-equal quantities of horizontal run to his fastball however eight fewer inches of induced vertical break.

Fujinami wasn’t simply efficient when batters swung at his pitches out of the zone; he additionally had nice success when difficult batters in it. In-zone whiff fee is a stable technique to measure a pitcher’s swing-and-miss stuff unbiased of different components like the flexibility to induce chases. Of 77 NPB pitchers with a minimum of 60 innings final 12 months, Fujinami’s 16.4% zone whiff fee ranked eighth, tied with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the back-to-back Triple Crown winner, consensus finest pitcher in NPB, and former teammate of Masataka Yoshida. These numbers can’t be straight in comparison with MLB numbers as a result of NPB hitters aren’t used to going through the high-octane velocity that Fujinami introduced, however American pitchers with comparable zone whiff numbers included Yu Darvish and Corbin Burnes. However Fujinami’s stuff can also be above common in comparison with MLB pitchers, particularly within the velocity division.

It’s tough to challenge how Fujinami will carry out in a brand new league since we’re working with a comparatively small pattern of comparable gamers. Since superior NPB knowledge turned accessible on Deltagraphs in 2014, solely three Japanese-born beginning pitchers have made the leap to MLB: Ohtani, Yusei Kikuchi, and Kohei Arihara. Fujinami has higher pure stuff and pitch knowledge than Kikuchi and Arihara, however each of them had a a lot stronger monitor report of efficiency within the seasons main as much as their posting, and none had command questions as important as Fujinami’s. And whereas Ohtani had a wonderful albeit injury-shortened rookie 12 months in MLB, Kikuchi and Arihara have been nicely under common. Right here’s how every pitcher fared in comparison with their NPB friends throughout their ultimate seasons in Japan:

Unsurprisingly, Ohtani’s 2016 MVP season was one of the best of the bunch by most stats (not pictured: his 181 wRC+), however Fujinami doesn’t fall far behind in any stat besides run prevention. Even Ohtani allowed his fair proportion of walks, and Fujinami’s chase and zone whiff numbers have been significantly higher than Senga’s. By uncooked stuff, Fujinami compares favorably to Arihara and Kikuchi, however he’s clearly a step behind Ohtani. ZiPS thinks Fujinami will find yourself in the midst of that vary of outcomes, and its projections say rather a lot about his mixture of massive stuff and good contact administration however generally nonexistent command.

ZiPS clearly places a great quantity of inventory in Fujinami’s management issues. In 2022, the checklist of beginning pitchers with a stroll fee of a minimum of 5 per 9 and an above-average ERA was… nobody. The one participant who was given a full season within the rotation with that many walks was Kikuchi, and he had an ERA north of 5. But ZiPS thinks that Fujinami will probably be a bit above common regardless of a stroll fee that normally lands you within the bullpen or the minors. A lot of that is because of his projected house run fee of simply 0.58 per 9, which might rank within the 94th percentile of massive league starters. The horizontal run of his fastball and splitter forestall batters from lifting the ball; his groundball fee was above 50% in every of his seasons on the Tigers, and his profession house run fee in NPB was 0.55, nearly equivalent to his ZiPS projection.

One other issue working in Fujinami’s favor, even in an atmosphere with extra energy, is his new house ballpark. Whereas the Tigers’ house stadium suppresses aerial harm fairly nicely with a house run issue of 88, the Oakland Coliseum, which sits 21 ft under sea stage, has a house run issue of 76, making it the second-most tough MLB stadium for hitting homers.

Oakland’s confidence in Fujinami’s management will seemingly decide whether or not he’ll deployed as a starter or reliever within the upcoming season. The trio of Cole Irvin, Paul Blackburn, and James Kaprielian appear to be protected bets to make the rotation barring a commerce, however the staff has many much less skilled pitchers who may begin the 12 months within the minors or be used as relievers in Adrián Martínez, Ken Waldichuk, Kyle Muller, JP Sears, and Rucinski. It ought to be identified that not one of the eight names talked about have compiled a season with a minimum of 50 innings and an above-average FIP, so the A’s could use 2023 to see which unproven hurlers can separate from the pack, identical to their younger place participant group. No matter his position, Fujinami has proven flashes of massive stuff when his command permits, and he has an opportunity to maneuver past his struggles in his stateside debut.