Angels Make a Move, Ink Robert Stephenson

The primary two months of the offseason had been totally outlined by one participant: Shohei Ohtani. The 2-way star’s departure for (the precise metropolis of) Los Angeles had a very significant impact on his former membership, which is in want of some main strikes to be remotely aggressive in his absence. To fill the Ohtani-sized gap on the roster, the Angels have signed… a 37-year previous reliever, two totally different sidearmers named Adam, and a hurler whose declare to fame is having suffered a number of self-inflicted accidents on account of frustration. Despite these lackluster additions, ZiPS views this crew somewhat favorably given the circumstances – nowhere close to title favorites, however not full embarrassments both. And whereas not one of the relievers they’ve added to this point will actually transfer the needle in both path, their newest signing provides a major high-leverage arm to the combination, with righty Robert Stephenson inking a three-year deal price $33 million to come back to Anaheim.

Stephenson’s profession previous to hitting free company was, in a phrase, inconsistent. The Reds introduced him up as a starter whose management points pushed him to the ‘pen; since then he’s handled persistent house run points, maybe anticipated from a fly ball-heavy pitcher who’s performed in Cincinnati and Colorado. However flashes of wonderful stuff had been all the time there, together with a 2019 marketing campaign the place he ranked third amongst all relievers in swinging strike price. When he thrived, he did so due to an absolute fantastic thing about a slider, thrown with sharp, downward chunk. Whereas the fastball was typically hammered with ease, his breaking ball ran a profession whiff price north of 45%. He threw it over half the time with the Reds and Pirates (however not the Rockies, due to course not). In an alternate universe, Stephenson might have performed out the 12 months in Pittsburgh earlier than hitting the open market as simply one other faceless center reliever. However in early June, a Tampa Bay Rays crew in dire want of reinforcements got here calling for his companies, and he did this:

The Rays didn’t simply enhance Stephenson, they turned him into the very best reliever in baseball. These numbers are absurd outliers, particularly his swinging strike price, which bested second-place Félix Bautista by practically eight share factors. He commanded the zone like no different, getting hitters to swing at all the things whereas arising empty on meaty strikes. The Rays getting essentially the most out of each reliever with a pulse appears like a drained narrative at this level, however they proceed to churn out arms at a formidable price regardless of advances in improvement and scouting by the remainder of the league. And their work with Stephenson could be essentially the most Rays-ian, unorthodox transfer doable.

Usually instances, pitch arsenals are the low-hanging fruit that savvy groups can pluck (or somewhat, tweak) to their benefit. The Rays have been forward of the curve within the league-wide pattern of throwing fewer fastballs, and the tales of their pitchers crafting new pitches, particularly sliders, are plentiful. They’ve additionally embraced (or kickstarted) the rise of the sweeper, throwing the fourth-most of any crew within the Statcast period whereas chasing down pitchers with outlier launch factors that contribute to horizontal motion. Given their tendencies, perhaps they might delete Stephenson’s fastball in a Matt Wisler-esque transfer, or flip his common slider right into a whirly. As an alternative, they went in the other way in pitch motion, opting to rework Stephenson’s slider right into a tougher cutter:

Actually in a single day, Stephenson realized a brand new pitch and ascended to elite standing on its again. His new main pitch sacrificed virtually all of its horizontal motion for elevated velocity, counting on the pitch’s relative lack of motion in comparison with different fastballs to catch hitters off guard. By season’s finish, he ranked third in cutter pitch worth, behind two starters with 1,786 and 693 cutters thrown; Stephenson had simply 316. With its four-tick improve in velocity over the previous slider, his retooled cutter extra carefully resembled his fastball out of the hand, stopping hitters from ready for a dangling slider and giving them much less time to react.

Stephenson additionally commanded his cutter much better than his slider. He landed each pitches within the zone at an analogous price, however he wasted far fewer cutters and persistently situated them proper beneath the zone for chases and misses. When opposing hitters noticed a cutter off the plate, they nonetheless swung over half the time and with poor outcomes; Stephenson was certainly one of simply three pitchers to generate constructive run worth within the “chase” space of the zone. ZiPS is totally purchased in on Stephenson’s changes and forecasts a low-three ERA with a strikeout price round 32%, which is spectacular even when it’s not on the earth-shattering stage he reached final season.

We haven’t actually checked in on the state of the Angels’ roster this offseason, although it’s not like they’ve given us many causes to. For this pitching employees, which has solely made marginal upgrades till now, 2024 will likely be a essential 12 months in figuring out whether or not they can reach Ohtani’s absence. Due to his classification as a two-way participant, the Angels have been allowed an additional pitcher on their roster over the previous three years, enabling them to maintain a totally stocked bullpen whereas operating a six-man rotation. Whereas RosterResource at present initiatives them to return to a five-man system, there are workload considerations with this transition. None of their homegrown starters have ever made 30 begins in a season, and solely Tyler Anderson has ever certified for the ERA title.

With that in thoughts, it is sensible for the crew to have taken a quantity-over-quality strategy to including bullpen arms, anticipating a necessity for any heat our bodies who can slot in in the course of the season. Along with the 9 pitchers who’re on the 40-man roster however not projected to interrupt camp, the Angels will likely be anticipating former nearer José Quijada to make a midseason return from Tommy John surgical procedure and will produce other rookies ready within the wings from their all-pitcher draft three seasons in the past. However an abundance of arms isn’t any assure of success. Previous to Stephenson’s signing, no Angel reliever had a projected ERA- of 95 or higher; the Rays, however, have 9 such arms.

Previous to the 2022 season, the Angels inked three relievers to multi-year contracts with the hope of elevating a employees that had ranked twenty third in ERA- the 12 months prior. Two years later, Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera had been every designated for project following uninspiring tenures, whereas star nearer Raisel Iglesias was traded away functionally free of charge in a cost-cutting transfer. Since then, their aid corps has solely gotten worse, bottoming out final season with a collective 4.88 ERA and 0.6 WAR. For this crew to remotely sniff success within the close to future, they’ll must shortly rebuild in an space they’ve been bleeding worth for the higher a part of a decade. And Stephenson, the very best reliever left in the marketplace, is a stable place to begin.