Regardless of being restricted to solely eight video games to start out the season, Cam Johnson initiatives to be one of many high Free Brokers this summer time. The younger(ish) ahead had assumed Jae Crowder’s beginning spot within the Phoenix Suns’ rotation to start the 2022-23 season earlier than his meniscus damage sidelined him in early November. Nonetheless, with or with out the damage, the very fact stays that sharpshooting wings are at all times a sizzling commodity on the NBA market.
A number of groups in want of such a wing are projected to have main cap room open within the offseason. Now that Johnson is again on the court docket for a group struggling to take care of a playoff spot, he’ll have loads of alternatives to proceed growing his worth as we method the All-Star break.
Alright, so how’d we get right here? Again in October, Johnson and the Suns tried and in the end failed to succeed in an settlement on a Rookie Scale Extension earlier than the beginning of the common season, assuring that the 26-year-old will attain Restricted Free Company in late June. For the Suns, all this implies is that Johnson may be capable of drive up his worth slightly bit by bringing again an Provide Sheet or no less than a verbal provide from the open market.
The Suns have the fitting to match any Provide Sheet which might preserve Johnson in a Suns uniform in the course of the contract. With how poorly final offseason’s negotiations went with Deandre Ayton, in the end forcing the Suns to match the most important Provide Sheet in NBA historical past, it’s laborious to think about a situation the place Johnson and Phoenix’s entrance workplace don’t attain an settlement themselves.
Okay, so we all know Johnson is most probably staying with Phoenix a technique or one other. The place’s his worth going to land? Let’s attempt to discover an estimate. Final season, Johnson averaged 12.5 PPG whereas posting a 42.5 3P%, simply the very best of his profession on the time, on 391 complete three-point makes an attempt. To date this season, Johnson is taking pictures 46.3% from three, although solely on 82 complete makes an attempt. For context, the league chief in three-point makes an attempt this season is at present Buddy Hield with 459. Hield is taking pictures 42.7% from three on that mark.
Amongst gamers placing up no less than 82 three-point makes an attempt this season, Johnson ranks fifth in 3P%.
In 2021-22, solely two gamers shot no less than as many threes as Johnson with a better share: Luke Kennard (44.9%) and Desmond Bane (43.6%). Bane remains to be on his rookie contract, and Kennard operates extra as a 2-guard whereas Johnson primarily performs on the 4. Due to this fact, we are able to’t actually use these guys nearly as good comparisons. As a substitute, we are able to take a look at a participant like Lauri Markkanen, who went by way of his Restricted Free Company again in 2021.
Do not forget that Markkanen was not the participant then that he’s now. Even nonetheless, within the 2020-21 season, he shot a then-career excessive 40.2% from three on just below 300 makes an attempt, leading to 13.6 PPG. Form of related proper? Though his new contract wasn’t truly agreed to till three weeks into Free Company, most probably reducing the worth, Markkanen was in a position to snag a four-year, $67.47 million take care of the Cleveland Cavaliers based mostly on these statistics, damaged down as follows:
Y1 (2021-22): $15,690,909
Y2 (2022-23): $16,475,454
Y3 (2023-24): $17,259,999
Y4 (2024-25): $18,044,544
The final yr of Markkanen’s deal is partially assured for $6 million, however we’ll set that apart for the needs of this evaluation. Okay, so the place can we go from right here? Within the first season of that deal, the Wage Cap was set at $112,414,000. Due to this fact, Markkanen’s $15.7 million wage represented 13.96% of the Cavaliers’ cap in that season.
The primary yr of Johnson’s new contract will begin subsequent season, which at present initiatives to have a $134,000,000 Wage Cap. What’s 13.96% of $134 million? $18,703,914. Subsequent, let’s think about raises. As a result of Markkanen signed his contract as a sign-and-trade, his raises have been restricted to five% of his first yr wage (FYS). If Johnson re-signs with the Suns, he’ll be allowed to comply with as much as 8% raises. Let’s lay out the deal:
Y1 (2023-24): $18,703,914
Y2 (2024-25): $20,200,227
Y3 (2025-26): $21,696,540
Y4 (2026-27): $23,192,854
Due to this fact, Markkanen’s equal contract for Johnson, if signed this summer time with the Suns, is a four-year, $83.79 million deal. That offers Johnson a mean annual worth (AAV) of $20.95 million. Adjusting the contracts of different (roughly) comparable gamers like Duncan Robinson, Mikal Bridges, Davis Bertans, and so forth., Johnson’s anticipated AAV seems to climb properly above $20 million.
An AAV of $20.95 million would make Johnson the fifth-highest paid participant on the Suns roster.
That, women and gents, is a crash course on cap inflation’s impact on participant valuation. Earlier than everybody goes loopy, no, that is probably not the place Johnson’s worth in the end lands. First, 3P% is just a part of the puzzle. Second, there are various different elements that groups and brokers take note of when coming to an settlement: age, enchancment arcs, statistical trajectories, potential signing threats, opponents in the marketplace, agent relations, the upcoming new NBA media rights deal, the brand new collective bargaining settlement, and rather more.
Trying on the 2023 Free Agent market, Johnson simply stands out as a best choice for groups needing wing depth. Clearly, we nonetheless have to see how he finishes the season, however, going right into a summer time loaded with cap room and starvation for wings, it’s trying greater than doubtless that Cam Johnson sees a contract with an AAV within the $20-25 million vary at a minimal.
