The Brewers reached the playoffs for the fifth time in sixth seasons, however had been upset and swept out of the wild-card collection by the Diamondbacks, triggering a fast begin to what could be a considerably transformative offseason. Longtime supervisor Craig Counsell is out of contract come November and has been noncommittal about his future in Milwaukee, whereas the Brewers face powerful selections on a trio of distinguished gamers.
Assured contracts
Christian Yelich, OF: $136.5M via 2028 (contains $6.5M buyout of 2029 mutual possibility)
Aaron Ashby, SP: $18.5M via 2027 (contains $1M buyout of 2028 membership possibility; Brewers additionally maintain $13M membership possibility for 2029 with no buyout)
Freddy Peralta, SP: $7M via 2024 (contains $1.5M buyout of 2025 membership possibility)
Whole 2024 commitments: $32.75MTotal future commitments: $162M
Possibility selections
Mark Canha, 1B/OF: $11.5M membership possibility for 2024 ($2M buyout)
Wade Miley, SP: $10M mutual possibility for 2024 ($1M buyout)
Andrew Chafin, RP: $7.25M membership possibility for 2024 ($725K buyout)
Justin Wilson, RP: $2.5M membership possibility for 2024 ($150K buyout)
Arbitration-eligible gamers (projected 2024 salaries, by way of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free brokers
With hypothesis swirling for years about the potential for David Stearns leaving the Brewers to run the Mets entrance workplace, a subsection of rumors additionally shaped round Counsell, whose contract (like Stearns) was up on the conclusion of the 2023 season. Stearns’ deal allowed him to begin negotiating with different groups on Aug. 1, and it took a little bit over a month earlier than Stearns certainly ended up as New York’s new president of baseball operations. Firing Buck Showalter was one among Stearns’ first selections as PBO, thus leaving the Mets in want of a brand new supervisor.
Brewers proprietor Mark Attanasio has been open about his need to retain Counsell, however the skipper requested that any contract talks be postpone till after the season. This is able to seemingly set the stage for Counsell to make a clear exit to Queens, or maybe to one of many different managerial vacancies (Giants, Guardians, Angels) across the sport, or perhaps to a season or two away from baseball completely to recharge his batteries. Solely Counsell is aware of what his subsequent step shall be, and may he certainly depart, Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold must add a brand new managerial rent to the highest of the offseason to-do record.
Though Stearns, probably Counsell and probably at the very least one among Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames gained’t be again subsequent season, it doesn’t seem to be the Brewers will entertain the concept of a rebuild. That is nonetheless a gifted roster that simply gained 92 video games, and each Attanasio and Arnold appear dedicated to the concept of perpetual competition within the mannequin of the Rays or Guardians, with out the necessity to ever absolutely tear issues down like different medium-to-small market groups.
That also means some powerful finances selections must be made, nonetheless. This offseason has at all times been seen as one thing of a flashpoint for the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames trio, as all three are coming into their remaining journey via the arbitration course of and are scheduled at no cost company following the 2024 marketing campaign. As per Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections for MLBTR, the trio are set to earn roughly $39.1M in wage subsequent 12 months. Mixed with the $26M that Yelich will obtain, that’s 4 gamers overlaying round $65.1M in payroll for a staff whose complete Opening Day payroll in 2023 was a contact underneath $118.8M. Among the many arbitration class, the doubtless non-tenders of Rowdy Tellez and Eric Lauer will unencumber some money, however nearer Devin Williams can be getting a major elevate in his second 12 months of arb eligibility.
If Attanasio feels the staff remains to be near a championship, may he OK a one-year payroll enhance and retain all of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames for what would primarily be a “final dance” season? In concept sure, however it looks as if 2023 would possibly’ve already been that final dance. As a lot Milwaukee followers dislike the concept of distinguished gamers being dealt for monetary causes, a canny commerce would permit the Brew Crew to each avoid wasting cash and purchase some expertise to assist the staff in each 2024 and past.
Protecting all of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames even till the following commerce deadline would carry additional threat, for one as a result of the 2022 Josh Hader deal is an instance of how such a commerce can disrupt a clubhouse at midseason. Moreover, the gamers’ commerce worth could possibly be lessened or erased fully within the occasion of damage or underperformance — a circumstance that has maybe already occurred with two of the three.
Woodruff pitched solely 67 innings in 2023 as a result of a subscapular pressure in his proper shoulder, and extra shoulder issues arose proper because the postseason started, maintaining Woodruff off the playoff roster. Even when this present situation does show to be comparatively minor, rival groups would possibly already be scared off on the thought of buying and selling for an injured pitcher, and the Crew doesn’t wish to promote low.
Within the worst-case situation of a serious shoulder damage, Woodruff lacking some or the entire 2024 season has higher affect than simply on his commerce standing. For one, the Brewers could be much less inclined to maneuver Burnes in the event that they know they’ll even be shedding their different ace to the injured record. Woodruff’s well being scenario would possibly erase the “want” for a commerce, since in any other case, Burnes looks as if the clear sell-high candidate of the trio after one other All-Star season.
Even in an offseason with a pitching-heavy free-agent market, golf equipment unwilling or unable to spend on a giant long-term free-agent deal can have loads of curiosity in a single 12 months of Burnes’ providers. Conceivably, the Brewers may intention to land pitching as a part of a Burnes commerce to bolster the rotation within the occasion of a Woodruff damage. As indicated by final offseason’s three-team swap between the Brewers, Athletics and Braves, Arnold is keen to get inventive in trades, so the staff acquiring Burnes wouldn’t essentially be the staff additionally giving up an arm in return.
Rotation depth has historically been a power for the Brewers, significantly in a 2023 season that noticed a number of starters miss important stretches. However, past Burnes, Woodruff and Lauer’s possible non-tender, Colin Rea and Julio Teheran (who mixed for 33 begins) are free brokers, and Wade Miley can even re-enter free company by declining his finish of a mutual possibility. With none of those arms, the Brewers’ prime rotation choices are actually Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby returning after lacking all of 2023 as a result of shoulder surgical procedure, rookie Janson Junk and his 9 profession MLB video games, and pitching prospect Robert Gasser on the verge of his MLB debut.
Re-signing Rea or Teheran may not be too costly, and a reunion with Lauer is feasible on a decrease wage than his $5.2M arbitration projection. Miley may probably additionally keep if the Brew Crew negotiated a brand new contract, but when not, count on Milwaukee to focus on one other Miley-esque veteran hurler who can add some stability and innings on a short-term deal.
Given how beginning pitching has been the spine of the Brewers’ run of contending groups, this a lot flux heading into the offseason is definitely unsettling for the membership, making Woodruff’s well being an enormous X-factor. It does assist that Milwaukee shall be bringing again just about everybody from one of many sport’s higher aid corps, and it’s secure to count on a few extra bullpen arms to be cycled out and in because the Brewers look to seek out one other hidden gem of a aid possibility.
The Brewers’ pitching and protection helped carry the staff to the NL Central crown regardless of an offense that was inconsistent at finest. Contemplating that the Crew want lineup reinforcement and infield assist in specific, they could be extra compelled to hold onto Adames, regardless of his down 12 months on the plate. Adames hit 24 homers and nonetheless offered excellent shortstop protection, however his 94 wRC+ (from a .217/.310/.407 slash line) was nicely under the 116 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22, as Adames’ hard-contact charges plunged this season.
Adames’ bat did come again to life during the last six weeks of the schedule, so it could possibly be that the 28-year-old merely had an unusually extended hunch. If searching for potential causes, his regular spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Basic, and Adames solely performed in a single sport for the Dominican Republic. It could possibly be that with a full and regular spring coaching, Adames will look extra like his regular self in 2024, which is sweet information for the Brewers…or a brand new staff.
Brice Turang is a gifted sufficient fielder to at the very least change Adames’ glovework at shortstop, however Turang didn’t present a lot on the plate in his rookie 12 months. Turang had a 60 wRC+, the second-lowest of all MLB gamers with at the very least 400 plate appearances final season. Whereas it’s too early to imagine that Turang can’t turn out to be at the very least a satisfactory hitter, he’s already slated to be Milwaukee’s first alternative at second base subsequent season, so it simply creates one other gap on the diamond if Turang was moved to shortstop within the occasion of an Adames commerce. Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller had their moments in 2023 and Abraham Toro may contribute if he isn’t non-tendered, however the Brewers would possibly want having this group as utility depth moderately getting regular enjoying time in a second base platoon.
Or, a 3rd base platoon, for the reason that scorching nook was a revolving door for a lot of 2023. Brian Anderson and Monasterio dealt with the majority of the enjoying time, however Anderson has already been launched, and the Brewers aren’t prone to carry again late-season pickup Josh Donaldson. Prospect Tyler Black performed loads of third base at Triple-A Nashville final season and is predicted to make his MLB debut in 2024, however it stays to be seen if third base will essentially be his main place, as he has been shuffled throughout the diamond looking for an excellent defensive spot.
First base was additionally a weak hyperlink earlier than commerce deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana helped stabilize issues, however Santana is a free agent and the Brew Crew have a $9.5M choice to make on Canha’s membership possibility. It may not have been a call Milwaukee essentially anticipated to make once they landed Canha from the Mets, but Canha performed so nicely (.800 OPS in 204 PA) as a Brewer that exercising the choice would possibly simply resolve one lineup concern.
Canha would most likely primarily play first base, however his means to additionally play each nook outfield slots supplies further depth, and maybe offers the Crew some further leverage in buying and selling from their outfield depth. Shifting an outfielder for a 3rd baseman particularly could possibly be useful, since the record of free-agent third-base choices isn’t deep, and the Brewers aren’t prone to be spending within the Matt Chapman/Jeimer Candelario tiers.
Turning to the outfield, Christian Yelich isn’t precisely again in his previous MVP type, however his 122 wRC+ was his highest since 2019. He’s nonetheless locked into the left area spot, however Yelich figures to get some DH days to open up enjoying time for former prime prospects Garrett Mitchell (who missed a lot of the 12 months as a result of shoulder surgical procedure) and Sal Frelick, in addition to Tyrone Taylor and rookies Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer. Whereas Yelich is the one established participant of this group, there could possibly be sufficient of a surplus right here for the Brewers to discover trades, particularly since one other extremely touted teenager is ready within the wings.
Jackson Chourio doesn’t have a good time his twentieth birthday till March, however he’s already ranked as one among baseball’s best possible prospects after tearing up the minors over his three professional seasons. Chourio has solely six video games and 24 PA on the Triple-A degree, so it’s potential Milwaukee begins him again at Triple-A to start the season to get the outfielder some extra seasoning. Nonetheless, between Chourio’s intriguing potential and the Prospect Promotion Incentive alternative open to the Brewers, a giant spring coaching efficiency would possibly put Chourio in heart area for Milwaukee on Opening Day.
Since Chourio figures to make his MLB debut in some unspecified time in the future in 2024, the Brewers would possibly maintain off on an outfield commerce till they see how every thing shakes out. Frelick and Mitchell aren’t doubtless going anyplace, however Wiemer is a former top-100 prospect and Taylor has typically been a strong part-timer over his 5 MLB seasons. These latter two gamers would possibly maintain attraction to different groups, if maybe as a part of a package deal deal moderately than in a notable one-for-one swap.
Turning to the ultimate bench spot, free agent Victor Caratini had a strong season as William Contreras’ backup, and would possibly search for extra enjoying time with one other staff. The Brewers would absolutely prefer to re-sign Caratini if potential, however they’ll be looking out for one more veteran backstop if needed. The excellent news is that the Crew don’t essentially need to restrict themselves to glove-first sorts, as Conteras made such spectacular strides along with his blocking and framing that he now appears like an above-average catcher on each protection and offense.
Contreras is the newest instance of how the Crew have been capable of frequently reload their roster. The notorious Hader commerce led to Gasser and Esteury Ruiz becoming a member of the Brewers, which led to Ruiz being despatched to the A’s as a part of that three-team deal that resulted in Contreras and ace setup man Joel Payamps coming to Milwaukee. Naturally not each commerce goes to work out fairly as swimmingly, however it does present hope that if Burnes, Adames or Woodruff are certainly moved, Arnold will be capable to once more carry again a noteworthy return.
Arnold must weigh his large commerce selections towards learn how to finest improve the prevailing high quality on the roster, all whereas not creating any roadblocks for the upcoming arrival of Chourio, Black and Gasser. Counsell’s future and Woodruff’s shoulder are the 2 largest matters going through Milwaukee because the offseason begins, however the Brewers enter a probably fascinating winter.
