We’re a couple of month and a half into the minor league season, an affordable time for a Prime 100 replace, albeit one with a comparatively mild contact. The aim of this replace is to pluck the low-hanging fruit, to shine and reshape the record reasonably than tear down the one from February. A lot of the nation is chilly or wet in April and early Could, and it will probably take time for gamers (hitters particularly) to get going. Younger gamers are additionally altering on a regular basis, which frequently contains changes to their first style of failure.
You possibly can see the up to date record in its entirety right here. Beneath, I’ve highlighted some particular person gamers. I contact on how everybody who’s a 60 FV prospect or higher has carried out up to now this 12 months, in addition to which gamers have moved up the record in a significant method. There are lots of instances during which the order of the record modified however the participant’s total grade and analysis didn’t. If a pitcher is damage and slid to the again of their FV tier (as with River Ryan, Ricky Tiedemann, Kyle Harm and Chase Hampton), or if guys are stacked otherwise as a consequence of syllogistic reasoning (comparable to former back-of-the-list starter Christian Scott racing previous comparable skills who’re in, say, Double-A), then I don’t deal with that particular person transfer.
How Does Every Prime Prospect Look?
Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
You’re most likely aware of the sequence of Holliday’s 2024. He and your entire Norfolk lineup started the season on a collective tear whereas the Orioles had been getting little manufacturing from second base. Holliday was promoted, hit .059 throughout a two-week huge league trial, was despatched again down, and has solely kind of bounced again. Holliday’s spray chart has shifted away from his pull facet and moved towards left subject and the third bottom line. For many of the final three weeks following his demotion, he’s been inside-outing plenty of contact the alternative method, together with pitches on the internal third of the plate that he usually activates. He’s swinging with a ton of effort and imprecision proper now. The best way Holliday’s physique unwinds all through his swing remains to be very thrilling and athletic, however he might have to make an adjustment that simplifies issues so he could be on time extra constantly. Bryce Harper’s swing may be template. These early hiccups are usually not purpose sufficient to return off of Holliday’s prime prospect analysis.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Langford went on a god-like Cactus League tear, broke camp as a heart-of-the-order hitter on the defending champions’ Opening Day roster, after which didn’t hit for energy throughout a month of massive league at-bats earlier than he was shelved with a hamstring damage. Langford’s high quality of contact was higher than his surface-level slash line, and the issues that made him the no. 2 total prospect earlier than the season began (enormous instruments and plate protection) had been nonetheless evident. He hit quite a lot of balls simply shy of the wall in April. I nonetheless anticipate him to be an offensive star upon his return, and possibly fairly shortly.
James Wooden, OF, Washington Nationals
Wooden, who entered the season as our fifth total prospect, has lower his strikeout price considerably early this 12 months. Coming into the season, it had been up round 30% since he was traded to Washington, but it surely’s a rock stable 19.1% up to now in 2024, and Wooden is attending to a lot energy that he has an OPS over 1.000 as of this writing. Wooden’s wrists are remarkably fast and he has unusual bat management for a hitter his measurement. For such an enormous man, the holes in his swing are comparatively small, largely up round his arms proper now. It’s possible that huge league velocity will sneak previous him extra typically (the typical Triple-A fastball is 91-92 mph up to now in 2024), however the ceiling on Wooden’s energy is as huge as anybody within the minors and he’s rising collective confidence in his capability to get to it. His rating on the preseason Prime 100 was already very aggressive, however Wooden’s grade has been boosted.
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
I wrote an extended Skenes replace right here. From an FV grade standpoint, his new splitter/sinker and elevated changeup utilization and really feel are significant developments, sufficient for Skenes to maneuver up a FV tier into rarified air for a pitching prospect. Listed below are the pitchers who I’ve ever 65’d or higher: Alex Reyes, Shohei Ohtani, MacKenzie Gore, Eury Pérez, Grayson Rodriguez, and now, Skenes.
Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
It turned a digital lock that Chourio would break camp with the massive league crew when he signed a contract extension this winter. In his offseason scouting report, I wrote about how the size of Chourio’s swing may make it robust for him to catch as much as huge league velocity, and that has up to now been the case, as he’s obtained an OPS near .600 in opposition to fastballs 93 mph and above, in opposition to which he principally has no pull-side airborne contact. He has sufficient energy to be harmful to the alternative subject and his protection goes to provide his offensive manufacturing fairly a little bit of margin for error, so whereas Chourio isn’t off to an amazing begin, he’s nonetheless an excellent proficient 20-year-old who needs to be an impression participant over time.
Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
I wrote about Merrill’s transition to heart subject and its impression on his prospectdom right here. Briefly, he seems to be like he’s going to stay on the market and that’s a giant deal.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
In late March, Lawlar suffered a torn UCL in his thumb that required surgical procedure and, in line with the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, was to maintain him out for at the very least all of April and Could. Lawlar is rehabbing in Arizona and making frequent cameos at Chase Discipline.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Caminero is hitting properly (he has an OPS north of .900 as a 20-year-old at Triple-A as of this writing) and included on this replace is a extra bullish forecast for his protection. It’s nonetheless believable at his measurement that he’ll finally want to maneuver to the outfield, however for now, what Caminero lacks in arms he makes up for with a lightning quick trade and plus arm. The issues about his swing that I outlined in his full scouting report are nonetheless current, however he continues to carry out in a superlative method regardless of them.
Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles
Basallo has a barely below-average wRC+ up to now in 2024, however he’s a 19-year-old catcher at Double-A, in order that’s high-quality. He seems to be good behind the plate (his receiving has improved, and his arm remains to be nice), however he’s extra typically taking part in first base and DH’ing than he’s catching. Particularly along with his offense slowing down considerably, I feel it is sensible for the Orioles to revisit give attention to the catching place. He’s going to have huge energy at maturity and has uncommon ceiling for a catcher, and there isn’t a right away want on offense on the huge league degree. It’s doable this isn’t a sign that the Orioles are successfully shifting on from Basallo as a catcher and as an alternative are simply attempting to protect his physique with a lighter load. If I assumed Bassallo was going to maneuver off of catcher totally, I’d slide him into the 55 FV tier of the record, proper across the nook thumpers like org-mate Coby Mayo.
Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals
Right here we now have one other upper-echelon prospect whose pre-existing swing points have been uncovered and are going to power an adjustment. I wrote in Crews’ Prime 100 blurb from the offseason that he’s typically late in opposition to fastballs and actually solely capable of pull softer stuff on the internal third with any type of energy. This has been a difficulty within the early portion of 2024, as he’s placing out almost 30% of the time whereas attending to sufficient of his energy to be productive anyway. He and the Nationals have to discover a method for him to cowl the internal half of the zone.
Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres
Salas, who turns 18 at the start of June, is struggling to hit at Excessive-A Fort Wayne. It’s widespread for hitters to wrestle throughout the frigid first month of the Midwest League, and there’s little or no precedent for a prospect this younger being at Excessive-A. Salas remains to be an extremely superior defender for his age and he can transfer the barrel across the zone. He isn’t making flush contact proper now and he’s swinging by a ton of excessive fastballs, however he’s additionally making contact with lots of them. It’s too early to maneuver off him in any respect.
Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Painter entered 2023 spring coaching wanting like he may break camp within the Phillies rotation and provides the then-defending NL champs one other high-end starter. He started to have elbow points earlier than the common season and the Phillies took a comparatively conservative strategy to his rehab within the hopes he’d reply to a PRP injection and be capable of pitch in some unspecified time in the future final 12 months. It didn’t work and he had TJ at a time that can possible price him all of 2024. He appeared like a possible top-of-the-rotation starter on the finish of 2022.
Shifting Up
Xavier Isaac, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Issac’s rotational explosion for a hitter his measurement could be very particular, and whereas he’s going to swing and miss at an elevated price, he additionally has ridiculous energy everywhere in the strike zone. He’s drastically overhauled his conditioning since he was drafted and appears like a future middle-of-the-order anchor. He has a 150 wRC+ at Excessive-A Bowling Inexperienced as of this replace, and by way of hard-hit price and peak exit velocities, Isaac is performing on the very prime of the dimensions. When you’re in a dynasty league or accumulate prospect’s playing cards, you might want to get this man now, as a result of if he continues on this tempo in opposition to Double-A pitching within the second half of the 12 months, he’s going to complete the season as a prime 5 or 10 total prospect. Tip of the hat to the Rays, who drafted Isaac though he wasn’t a well-known showcase prospect. The choose was initially met with confusion, even derision, however just like the Evan Carter Rangers choose, it seems to be prefer it’s going to have a significant impression on this franchise though Isaac remains to be obscure sufficient that the picture service we use for header artwork doesn’t actually have a image of him in its database but.
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Purple Sox
Talking of adjustments in conditioning, Mayer seems to be extra svelte than final 12 months, his vary on protection is best, and he’s modified the best way he throws, now eliminating the baseball as shortly as doable even when it means throwing three- and four-hoppers to first base. I’m nonetheless apprehensive about his capability to contact tender stuff within the backside of the strike zone, however he’s raised his possibilities of staying at brief. His FV grade hasn’t modified, however he’s moved up sufficient that I needed to say it.
Shifting In
Aidan Miller, SS/3B, Philadelphia Phillies
It’s undoubtedly essential to maintain Miller’s efficiency in context. He was an older highschool choose and he’s nearly to show 20, which is a little bit previous for Low-A. He additionally shares swing components that make me petrified of eventual swing-and-miss, which you’ll examine in his report. However up to now, none of these points have manifested in Clearwater, Miller has a 90% in-zone contact price, and he isn’t exhibiting any vulnerability to fastballs on the prime of the zone. It’s also possible to watch Miller swing and be reminded of Nico Hoerner, and it’s believable Miller may find yourself with an analogous profile, albeit one with extra energy.
Josue De Paula, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
De Paula was disregarded of the Prime 100 throughout the offseason as a result of I needed to see him really hit for energy (he’s a nook defender, in any case), which has began to occur. He didn’t have a house run till a couple of days earlier than this replace, however his underlying exit velos have been sensational. His 94 mph common exit velo up to now this season is elite, up eight ticks from final 12 months, whereas his 114 mph max is up 4.
Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
One other man who remade his physique throughout the offseason, Pages had season-ending shoulder surgical procedure in 2023 and got here again this 12 months with a completely totally different physique and degree of athleticism. He’s swinging with extra athletic verve than ever earlier than (he was a Prime 100 man earlier than his damage), and it raises the ceiling on his protection to have higher velocity.
Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Povich was left off the offseason Prime 100 as a result of I assumed that at his degree of velocity, he’d want higher command than he has for his fastball to play. He appears to have leveled up on this regard and is having a greater go of Triple-A than he did final 12 months.
Others Who Acquired Consideration
Owen Murphy, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Murphy was a Decide to Click on and he’s off to a unbelievable begin at Excessive-A Rome, however he hasn’t but proven a constantly good slider. His vertical fastball and curveball combo could be very promising by itself, and Murphy’s arm motion is the type usually well-suited for changeup improvement, however he and the Braves appear targeted on growing that slider proper now, and it’s nonetheless solely okay.
Jacob Melton, OF, Houston Astros
Melton’s swinging strike price is surprisingly low contemplating what I anticipated of him popping out of Oregon State. His head remains to be flying round rather a lot all through his swing and he tends to spray quite a lot of contact to the alternative subject. I’m simply not comfy projecting that that is the offensive talent set of an on a regular basis outfielder.
Joey Loperfido, 1B, Houston Astros
Lopefrido was on a homer-hitting tear at Triple-A Sugarland previous to his huge league promotion, however he was additionally placing out 30% of the time. Final record cycle’s grade nonetheless feels sufficiently excessive on him. He’s a high-quality nook function participant greater than he’s a real on a regular basis participant.
Lazaro Montes, OF, Seattle Mariners
Montes is a big outfield prospect who has a ridiculous Cal League slash line up to now this 12 months. Surprisingly, his hard-hit price has been a comparatively modest 30% up to now, whereas his contact charges (in-zone and out) are hovering within the 70-74% vary, which is comfortably beneath the massive league common. There’s certainly huge power-hitting ceiling right here, however I’m not comfy projecting the long-term offensive success wanted for him to be an impression participant on the positions Montes will be capable of play.
Brandon Younger, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Younger has had a little bit velocity bump and has been completely dominant at Double-A Bowie. His fastball has all the time had huge vertical break, however now it’s extra typically 93-94 mph, up from 91-92. He has a well-defined four-pitch combine and plus command, although solely his changeup is producing a plus price of swing-and-miss and Younger locates that pitch within the zone rather more typically than is typical of a giant league pitcher. He’s a near-ready starter however let’s see him maintain the velo bump all 12 months earlier than contemplating him a mid-rotation prospect.
Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF, Minnesota Twins
As we strategy work on the Twins record from prime to backside, we checked on Keaschall, who has accomplished nothing however rake since coming into professional ball, albeit in a comparatively small pattern. He’s proven really feel for the zone, bat management, and modest energy. Keaschall has by no means been an excellent infield defender and the Twins have been experimenting with him in heart subject. He’s very a lot nonetheless studying to play on the market.
Rubel Cespedes, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Cespedes is a possible plus third base defender with a 70 arm, able to hosing guys from deep within the nook. His swing is much like Cam Collier’s and draft prospect Bryce Rainer’s — there’s huge bat velocity and low-ball carry however actual vulnerability on the prime of the strike zone.
