A Starter’s Pistol Update to the Top 100 Prospects List (and more), feat. Dylan Dodd

The ribbon has been reduce on the 2023 season and I needed to push a number of prospect updates stay to The Board, together with a number of tweaks to the Prime 100 record. This replace additionally consists of publication of scouting stories such that each rookie at present on an lively roster now has a present document on The Board, and some additions the farm programs I’ve already audited throughout this cycle primarily based on issues I noticed throughout spring coaching.

Let’s begin with injury-related updates to the Prime 100. Phillies prime prospect Andrew Painter has {a partially} torn UCL and is approaching the tip of his four-week shutdown interval. Rule of thumb: Amongst a equally gifted group of gamers, you’d most need to have the wholesome guys. Painter slides from fifth general to twelfth, proper behind newly minted huge leaguers Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who’re comparably gifted, wholesome, and making a giant league influence proper now. That is only a beauty change to the record; Painter’s analysis hasn’t modified. If it seems he wants Tommy John, whether or not or not I slide him any additional will rely upon its timing. If relaxation doesn’t work and his surgical procedure is timed such that he additionally misses all of 2024, that’s the worst case situation for Painter and the Phillies. We all know for positive that Nationals pitching prospect Cade Cavalli wants Tommy John, so similarly he falls throughout the 50 FV participant tier, sliding from 63rd general to 99th, proper subsequent to Mason Miller of the A’s, with whom he now shares injury-related reduction threat.

Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe, the third general choose in 2021, goes to overlook three to 6 months as a consequence of lumbar backbone irritation. This damage is extra novel than a TJ, and Jobe isn’t precisely coming off an excellent 2022. Sadly, this case deserves a extra significant shift, however I nonetheless need to replicate the upside of a wholesome Jobe, so he downshifts to the 45+ FV tier, the place probably the most gifted of the younger high-variance prospects reside. Assuming he comes again late this season, he’ll be one of many higher-priority evaluations within the minors.

I’ve additionally made one addition to the 50 FV tier from off the record: Braves lefty Dylan Dodd. I despatched Jay Jaffe notes when he wrote about each Dodd’s and Jared Shuster’s pursuit of a gap day rotation spot and indicated that you would make an argument each are prime 100 prospects due to the elevated velocity they’ve proven this spring. I’m shopping for Dodd greater than I’m Shuster, although each seem able to occupy a giant league rotation spot.

Each pitchers have exhibited two-tick bumps in velocity this spring: Dodd’s fastball has averaged 94 mph and topped out at 96 per publicly obtainable knowledge from Grapefruit League video games this spring, and Shuster was sitting 92. However Dodd’s enhance hasn’t compromised his command, whereas for Shuster that’s much less sure. He’s throwing tougher, however he nonetheless has below-average velocity and didn’t have nice really feel for finding his fastball this spring. And whereas Shuster has one thing Dodd doesn’t (a plus pitch in his changeup), his breaking ball is below-average and depends rather more on location than motion; it isn’t a pitch that may stay within the zone. The excellent news is Shuster tends to command it, as he does his plus changeup, which he additionally tends to find, and which he hides nicely together with his quick arm stroke. It has huge tailing motion and is well his greatest pitch. Shuster will most likely pitch off of that cambio within the huge leagues for a really very long time; it’s simply robust to see him as something greater than a no. 4/5 starter if he’s solely going to sit down both 90 with command, or 92 with out it.

Dodd, nevertheless, has been surgical even amid his personal two-tick velo spike and whereas adjusting to a comparatively new supply. He’s getting deeper into his legs than he was in school, and his stride is extra closed off, altering the angle of his fastball along with serving to unlock some further velocity by higher utilizing his decrease half. His stuff is okay, not nice, however he has plus-plus command of all the pieces, he goes proper at hitters, and his fastball has sufficient hair on it to remain off barrels although it isn’t a dominant, driving pitch. He belongs amid the high-floor 50 FV pitchers towards the again of the Prime 100. Each Dodd and Shuster have been added to The Board.

Any rookie-eligible participant at present on an lively roster has been added to The Board with a recent scouting report, instrument grades, and the opposite accoutrements, even when their workforce’s full prospect record hasn’t been printed but. Bear in mind, the participant’s FV grade is a extra vital indication of his potential than an ordinal rating on a prospect record, which is generally influenced by system high quality. Ordinal rankings are about as helpful a method of speaking participant expertise as RBIs. Right here is the whole record of gamers who’ve been added, together with a short remark about their forecast.

I made a number of additions to the prospect lists which have already been accomplished throughout this cycle primarily based on how gamers have seemed this spring. As I proceed to churn out lists (Phillies subsequent, then Braves), I’ll prioritize contender’s programs for these incremental updates, since they’re the groups most certainly to be motivated to half with prospects through commerce. You’ll be able to rapidly view all of them by sorting The Board by the “Pattern” column.

Undrafted 24-year-old Dodgers free-agent pitcher Jake Pilarski made the scout part ultimately week’s Dodgers-Rockies sport do a collective spit take, as he got here out buzzing 98-101. Extra on his journey and repertoire is accessible over on The Board, as he’s been added to the Dodgers prospect record. So far as the place he strains up within the org, it feels logical to worth Pilarski above the Edgardo Henriquez/Carlos Duran duo, who’ve equally good things however are at present rehabbing. Pilarski appears to be like like what Maddux Bruns would seem like if he fails to develop as a strike-thrower. The notion that there’s a path for Bruns to do this whereas Pilarski *solely* appears to be like like a quick observe set-up man makes me need to go away Bruns forward of him although he hasn’t seemed nice this spring.

One other Dodgers pop-up man is 24-year-old righty Juan Morillo, who had thrown simply 1.2 innings of affiliated ball since 2019 because of the pandemic and a TJ. He got here out pumping 100 mph fuel this spring and he’ll dominate together with his fastball as long as he isn’t working himself into bother through walks. He adopted Pilarski in that very same sport towards the Rockies and was very wild, however do not forget that he’s barely pitched since 2019. There’s extra on Morillo on The Board; he’s once more listed throughout the Dodgers system subsequent to different energy arms who’ve substantial strike-throwing threat.

Extra Dodgers stuff: Michael Grove’s spring was ok to maneuver him from the highest of the 40 FV tier into the 40+ FV tier. His velo is up a tick and his slider has extra depth now than it did final yr by a reasonably good margin. I nonetheless don’t suppose his fastball command is nice sufficient to think about him a slam dunk no. 4/5 starter on a contender, however he’s positively higher than only a generic no. 5. I believe he’d be a dynamite lengthy man, but it surely is sensible to have him spot begin for this season and possibly even subsequent yr earlier than making such a transfer.

A Guardians tweak: Will Brennan appears to be like prone to get the lion’s share of proper discipline reps for the Guardians and slides up from the 40 FV tier into the 45s. He’s not an every-situation participant and can possible platoon with Oscar Gonzalez, however whereas Brennan doesn’t have splendid energy for a nook man, his really feel for contact makes up for that sufficient for him to be a very good strong-side platoon choice. He’s a deep sleeper for Rookie of the 12 months as a result of he’s going to play loads and make a ton of contact. Not fairly Kwan-like, however Kwan-lite.

I’ve additionally added two upper-level relievers towards the underside of the Brewers record in Harold Chirino and Zach Vennaro. The latter is particularly attention-grabbing provided that he’s one more Indy ball discover for the Brewers, and since his supply is exclusive. Once more, full stories, pitch grades, TrackMan knowledge, and many others. may be discovered on the Brewers record on The Board.