You’ll be able to add two extra stars to the sport’s unlucky tally of injured gamers, as Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte have been each added to the 10-day injured checklist on Monday. Riley, who has been one in all Atlanta’s hottest hitters after an ice-cold begin to the 2024 season, was faraway from Sunday’s sport towards the Angels after a 97-mph Jack Kochanowicz sinker went very excessive and really inside, connecting together with his wrist. Marte’s harm seems much less severe than Riley’s, however a re-aggravated sprained ankle has put him on the shelf at a key second in Arizona’s playoff run.
After I ran the numbers on baseball’s most injured groups final week, Atlanta got here out second by way of probably the most misplaced potential worth, “crushed” by solely the Dodgers. Riley, who has gotten MVP votes in every of the final three seasons, has had a little bit of a down 12 months, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and a couple of.4 WAR, which represents his weakest efficiency since earlier than his 2021 breakout. However even when he hasn’t had a very sterling season general, he’s change into essential these days, particularly because the accidents have piled up and the remainder of the crew’s offense has swooned. Riley’s seasonal line was as little as .220/.288/.330 again in mid-June; he’d gone greater than a month with out a homer and had solely hit three on the season. Since June 13, nevertheless, Riley has led Atlanta’s lineup in WAR and hit 16 round-trippers:
Braves Hitters Since June 13
Monday’s MRI, which revealed a damaged wrist, places Riley out of motion for 6-8 weeks, which means that until the Braves go deep into the playoffs, his 2024 season might be over. Whereas there’s by no means a superb time to lose a middle-of-the-order hitter, Riley’s loss comes at a very awkward level for the Braves, as their seven video games towards the division-leading Phillies over the subsequent week-and-a-half doubtless characterize their final, greatest likelihood to grab the NL East, long-shot although it could be. The Braves appear to have arrested their fall within the standings, successful 5 of their final seven, however they’re nonetheless barely clinging to the final Wild Card spot, as they’re only one 1/2 video games forward of the Mets and three 1/2 in entrance of the Giants.
The silver lining — or arguably a boring grey one — is that Gio Urshela was instantly out there in free company after being launched by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday; the Braves signed him to a serious league deal earlier at the moment. The issue, in fact, is that the one purpose Urshela was out there is that he’s having such a poor season that no person needed to threat choosing up the pro-rated {dollars} remaining on his one-year, $1.5 million contract. Urshela had a strong little peak, placing up a 118 wRC+ and eight.1 WAR for the Yankees and Twins from 2019 to 2022, however after a fractured pelvis in 2023 and a depressing .243/.286/.333 line this 12 months, he seems to be on the downslope of his profession.
Whereas I nonetheless assume Nacho Alvarez Jr. would have been one of the best substitute regardless of his weak debut stint, Atlanta seems to need to play it safer, choosing the veteran Urshela over Luke Williams and possibly a little bit of Whit Merrifield if Ozzie Albies returns in September. With out the Riley harm, ZiPS projected a 73% likelihood of the Braves holding off the Mets and Giants and making the playoffs; changing Riley with Urshela drops that likelihood to 68%, whereas taking part in largely Williams at third would trigger it to dip just a little additional to 67%. Regardless of Urshela solely being projected at substitute stage or a hair above, paying $400,000 for 1% of a playoff spot is definitely an affordable worth. To make room for Urshela on the 40-man roster, A.J. Minter, who’s out with hip surgical procedure, was moved to the 60-day IL. Nonetheless, that doesn’t change the crew’s projection, as I had already baked within the assumption that, at greatest, Minter was very more likely to solely get just a few outings within the season’s closing days.
As I discussed above, Ketel Marte’s harm is much much less severe than Riley’s. Marte initially sprained his ankle on August 10 after a Garrett Stubbs slide into second base. The Diamondbacks didn’t place him on the IL, opting to make use of him fastidiously within the final week, with a pair late-inning appearances and a sport at DH. They’re taking no probabilities this time, although, and the hope is that he’ll have the ability to make a fast return after taking a while to recuperate.
As with Riley’s harm, Marte’s comes at a key level within the season for his crew. After treading water earlier this season, the Diamondbacks have been one in all baseball’s hottest groups, and together with the Padres, they’ve really made the Dodgers really feel at the least mildly uncomfortable on the prime of the NL West. Earlier than the harm, Marte had been on the most popular run of his profession, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers because the begin of June. His 3.9 WAR over that timeframe ranked behind solely Francisco Lindor’s 4.2 WAR amongst NL hitters. Mixed with Arizona’s surge, Marte was placing collectively an affordable MVP case. Assuming he solely requires a minimal keep on the IL, the numerous downgrade to Kevin Newman doesn’t characterize a severe hit to the Snakes’ playoff hopes; ZiPS has them at 90% odds to make the playoffs, solely a 0.5% drop from their projection with out the harm. Within the best-case state of affairs, the Diamondbacks would get Marte again simply in time for a key four-game collection towards the Dodgers subsequent week, their final alternative to immediately inflict punishment on their division rival within the standings.
The accidents to Riley and Marte don’t doom their groups to 2024 oblivion, however they do make their respective crew’s challenges this 12 months a bit extra daunting. However hey, no person stated it might be straightforward.
