This most likely isn’t an issue for most individuals, however I’m plagued continually by the reminiscence of irritating baseball arguments from days previous. I most likely get into these arguments greater than most individuals, partially due to my (and I hope it doesn’t sound conceited to say this) huge information of the game, however largely as a result of I’ve lived most of my life in New Jersey, which his dwelling to probably the most cussed, tendentious individuals you’d ever have the misfortune of assembly.
One such argument befell most likely shut to fifteen years in the past, after I ruined what was alleged to be a soothing Friday night down the shore by getting right into a shouting match over the problem of Alex Rodriguez vs. Derek Jeter. I most well-liked A-Rod, who would go on to complete his profession with a slugging proportion greater than 100 factors increased than that of his Yankees teammate. I used to be arguing in opposition to somebody whose case rested on Jeter being “extra clutch.”
Should you’re sufficiently old to recollect what “analytics bloggers” like me considered that argument within the 2010s, you possibly can perceive my quickness to anger and doubtless think about the colours my face turned. When the mud settled, Jeter — who, it seems, was really an distinctive hitter all alongside — did end with a greater profession postseason wRC+ than A-Rod. However it was shut: 121 to Jeter, 116 for Rodriguez.
However the basis of my place has stayed with me: A greater hitter who performs the identical in stress conditions — or perhaps a little worse — should be extra productive within the clutch than an inferior participant who raises his sport. How does that line of reasoning maintain up? We’re in a little bit of a sluggish interval between the commerce deadline and the sharp finish of the playoff race — plus Dan Szymborski simply wrote concerning the White Sox and their world-historical screwing of the pooch, which is the one factor in baseball I really care about proper now — so now appears nearly as good a time as any to seek out out. Perhaps this text will present a helpful public service to the cussed and argumentative amongst you sooner or later down the road.
So let’s pit the clutchest hitters in baseball this season in opposition to the very best. Who would you somewhat have up with the sport on the road? I’ll use wRC+ as a proxy for common hitter high quality and, um, Clutch (which charges how a lot a hitter raises his sport in higher-leverage conditions) as a proxy for clutchness.
We nearly obtained some nice symmetry right here. There are 15 certified hitters this season with a Clutch ranking of 1.00 or higher, which, in keeping with the FanGraphs glossary, is “nice.” Kind the identical leaderboard by total wRC+, and also you get 15 gamers with a wRC+ of 148 or higher. Which, should you shut your eyes and cross your fingers, is mainly a wRC+ of 150.
Just one participant seems within the prime 15 in each metrics, which from the place I’m sitting mainly makes him the favored youngster of the gods of fortune. Perhaps it’s higher to be fortunate than good, nevertheless it’s greatest to be each. Anybody wish to guess who this golden god of a person is? You bought a reputation in thoughts?
Jurickson Profar. What a world.
Profar however, situational stats don’t bode properly for the context-neutral mashers. 4 of the remaining 14 prime hitters in wRC+ — Aaron Choose, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez — are literally within the backside 15 in Clutch. Steven Kwan, no. 11 in wRC+ this season, can also be down close to the underside of the Clutch leaderboard. Taking Profar out of the equation for each side, listed here are your 28 contestants.
The Good, the Dangerous, and the Clutch
I don’t learn about you, but when I had to decide on a listing of hitters to win me a sport, or a World Sequence, I’d take the listing with Choose, Soto, Ohtani, and Harper.
In high-leverage conditions, outlined as a plate look with a leverage index of two.0 or increased, the Good listing and the Clutch listing are very shut, however the guys on the Clutch listing have been higher this yr on the combination.
Excessive-Leverage Efficiency in 2024
Whole
PA
BB%
Ok%
AVG
OBP
SLG
Clutch 14
499
11.0%
15.8%
.325
.403
.620
Good 14
523
15.7%
17.8%
.311
.417
.528
So the higher hitters stroll extra and have a better OBP, however the clutch ones hit for extra energy. And should you drill down on particular person efficiency, clutch hitters dominate the highest of the listing as properly. I’ll warn you, that is the place issues get slightly bizarre.
Excessive-Leverage Efficiency in 2024, Half 2
Prime Six
Excessive-Leverage wRC+
Good or Clutch
Daulton Varsho
298
Clutch
Juan Soto
263
Good
Jesse Winker
239
Clutch
Ian Happ
215
Clutch
Alec Burleson
208
Clutch
Corey Seager
207
Clutch
Yordan Alvarez
125
Good
Rafael Devers
123
Good
Spencer Steer
110
Clutch
Corbin Carroll
106
Clutch
Bryson Stott
97
Clutch
Bryce Harper
4
Good
As a result of holy crap, what occurred to Harper?
Now, numerous these tendentious New Jerseyans I talked about earlier are Phillies followers, and I nonetheless hear their baleful cries. The Phillies, who regarded just like the 2001 Mariners till a few week earlier than the All-Star break, are at the moment within the midst of a slide that’s a pair bounces away from rivaling the one the Dodgers went on in 2017. The general public, suffice it to say, is just not taking it properly.
A few of that response stems from the truth that numerous the people who find themselves appearing just like the Phillies won’t ever win once more are nonetheless twitchy from watching the Eagles begin 10-1 after which appear to be they had been by no means going to win once more. That sort of — and that is going to sound imply and I don’t care — soccer mentality is ill-suited to baseball, which is a sport the place you possibly can’t name completely different performs or blitz extra, and the place simply attempting more durable is commonly counterproductive.
However there’s been criticism of Harper arising small in huge moments and, yeah, seems that’s proper on the cash.
In 43 high-leverage plate appearances this yr, Harper is hitting .152/.326/.182. The 5 hits he’s managed embrace 4 singles and a double. It boggles the thoughts for 3 causes: First, it’s arduous to think about anybody being that dangerous in any pattern. Second, Harper’s been superior generally this yr; his struggles in high-leverage conditions solely entered into this text as a result of he’s been one of many 15 greatest hitters within the majors this season. And third, all of us bear in mind this, proper?
OMG BRYCE HARPER!!! WOW!!! THE SWING OF HIS LIFE!!! pic.twitter.com/9UWmROAuNV
— FOX Sports activities: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 23, 2022
I used to be within the constructing for that dwelling run. It’s one of many clutchest issues I’ve ever seen in individual, and never unrepresentative of Harper’s playoff profession. In 49 profession postseason video games, he’s hitting .276/.383/.613. Since becoming a member of the Phillies, he’s .286/.455/.643 within the postseason and .278/.417/.493 in 295 high-leverage regular-season plate appearances. Earlier than this annus horribilis of the clutch, Harper was a .299/.433/.546 hitter as a Phillie in high-leverage regular-season conditions.
I’m not unreceptive to the likelihood that Harper is urgent in huge conditions this season. He’s extra conspicuously conscious of his context and leverage state of affairs — each in-game and relative to the pursuit of a championship — than any hitter I’ve ever seen. And the road between rising to the event and attempting to do an excessive amount of is impossibly skinny.
But when I had the sport on the road and the selection between having Harper or Varsho on the plate, I’d nonetheless decide Harper. Clutchness is just not intangible; in baseball, it’s really extremely quantifiable. However solely on reflection.
You wish to understand how I do know? As a result of Harper led the league — actually led the league — in Clutch final yr. In reality, let’s do the identical experiment utilizing final yr’s stats: Take the highest 15 within the league in wRC+ and Clutch in 2023, and evaluate their high-leverage efficiency in 2024.
This time, there are three crossovers: Harper, Carroll, and Ronald Acuña Jr. So by taking them out, we’re lowering the pattern to 12 good hitters and 12 clutch hitters. 5 hitters — Freeman, Soto, Ozuna, Harper, and Ohtani — appeared on the Good listing in each 2023 and 2024. Solely two — Stott and Carroll — appeared on each Clutch lists.
Anyway, taking that longer lead time under consideration, right here’s how the very best and most clutch hitters of 2023, respectively, are doing in high-leverage conditions in 2024.
The Finest and Most Clutch of 2023, in Excessive Leverage in 2024
Sort
PA
BB%
Ok%
AVG
OBP
SLG
Clutch
410
8.8%
21.5%
.230
.302
.368
Good
463
15.1%
14.7%
.298
.402
.490
This time there’s no comparability. The nice hitters from 2023 are miles forward of the clutch hitters.
I may’ve saved myself numerous hassle by doing this math all these years in the past. The rationale I misplaced that argument is that it was largely backward-looking. You may inform who has been a greater hitter in clutch conditions, however previous returns usually are not a assure of future efficiency. Harping on the previous might be cathartic for functions of venting on Twitter or speak radio, nevertheless it’s not a constructive predictor of the long run. If you wish to discover probably the most clutch hitters of tomorrow, you’re higher off the very best total hitters of right this moment.