Showdown at the Shed: Previewing the 2024 Home Run Derby

For many who benefit from the loudest, easiest, most dopamine-drenched type of baseball, at the moment is a special occasion. It’s Derby day, and even higher, the foolish hats will not be necessary. The MLB House Run Derby takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET at Globe Life Area in Arlington, Texas. What the Costco-coded ballpark lacks in aesthetics it makes up for in bulk. In response to Statcast’s park components, Globe Life yields extra dwelling runs than the typical park each for righties (120) and for lefties (110), so we needs to be in for a present. You’ll be able to watch on ESPN, however for those who’re a nerd – and also you’re studying FanGraphs proper now, so I’m certain you are able to do the maths on this one – you’ll most likely choose the Statcast broadcast over on ESPN 2.

As in any yr, there’s a laundry record of Derby-worthy gamers who gained’t be taking part, with Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Choose, and Elly De La Cruz on the high. Nonetheless, this a stable sampling of swatters, and practically each participant figures to have a reliable shot at successful. Both we’ll have a first-time winner or Pete Alonso will take dwelling his record-tying third title.

The sector options three of the highest six dwelling run hitters in baseball this season — Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and José Ramírez — and two of the sport’s brightest younger shortstops: AL MVP candidates Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.. It additionally contains three sluggers who take the Derby way more significantly than your common participant — Alonso, Henderson, and Teoscar Hernández — and two others who’ve gained derbies at decrease ranges: Witt and Alec Bohm. Lastly, there’s Adolis García, an electrifying slugger whose historic energy show through the Rangers’ World Sequence run final season is certain to maintain the gang at full throat. Within the sections beneath, I’ll break down all the brand new guidelines and I’ll attempt to make a case for why every candidate has a shot on the crown.

Rule Adjustments

Lately, all the Derby has taken the type of a single-elimination match, with the eight contributors seeded based mostly on their common season dwelling run totals. This yr, the primary spherical might be vast open. All eight gamers will hit as many dwelling runs as they’ll, and the 4 gamers with the best totals will advance right into a four-person bracket. They’ll be seeded based mostly on these totals, with the space of their longest dwelling run serving as a tiebreaker.

On the one hand, it will possible make the competitors somewhat bit extra truthful. Final yr, Adley Rutschman hit 27 dwelling runs within the first spherical. That was the third-highest complete of the spherical, however he failed to maneuver on as a result of he had the unhealthy luck to be dealing with off towards Luis Robert Jr., who hit 28. However, this variation makes the Derby way more of an endurance contest. Swinging for the fences repeatedly is tiring work. In earlier years, for those who have been batting second, all you wanted to do was homer as soon as greater than your opponent, after which you possibly can save your power for the later rounds. That choice is now gone. Everybody must max out their first-round complete, so we must always most likely anticipate some sweaty, sluggish sluggers by the point we get to the ultimate. Conditioning might be key.

In case your favourite factor in regards to the House Run Derby is the byzantine guidelines, you’re in for a deal with as a result of we’re simply getting began. This yr, the timing of every spherical stays the identical: Batters get three minutes within the first two rounds and two minutes within the remaining spherical, with one 45-second timeout per spherical. Nonetheless, you may recall that in earlier years, the system required the pitcher to attend till the final ball had landed earlier than pitching, a minimum of in principle. In apply, some pitchers flouted that rule, and because of this, their hitters noticed far more pitches than did their opponents. In an effort to curb that apply (which whereas undeniably unfair was additionally extraordinarily enjoyable), the foundations now embrace a most variety of pitches per spherical: 40 within the first two rounds and 27 within the remaining spherical, which works out to 4.5 seconds per pitch. If you happen to run out of pitches, then the spherical is over, even when there’s nonetheless time on the clock. Take note, that’s a most variety of pitches, not swings. That might make the command of the pitcher, already an enormous issue, much more essential. Lately, if batters didn’t like a pitch, they might take it and their pitcher would fireplace one other one straight away. There wasn’t a lot of a time penalty, as a result of they didn’t have to attend for the earlier pitch to land. On this new format, if the pitcher misses their batter’s nitro zone, it makes quite a bit much less sense for the batter to take the pitch and anticipate the following one, as a result of they solely get so many treasured balls.

The bonus system has additionally modified fully. This yr, every participant concludes every spherical with an untimed bonus spherical wherein they’ll hit till they document three outs. In the event that they hit a ball a minimum of 425 toes inside the bonus, then they earn a fourth out. In different phrases, batters might get locked in and launch a bunch of homers in a row through the bonus and pile onto their totals for the spherical, and due to the additional out, those that hit one particularly lengthy blast through the bonus would have an excellent better benefit.

If there’s a tie within the head-to-head rounds after the bonus, then each gamers get a 60-second swing-off with no further bonuses or timeouts. In the event that they’re nonetheless tied after the swing-off, then they every get one other swing-off that consists of simply three swings. If it’s nonetheless tied after that, they do the entire three-swing enterprise once more till there’s a winner or till the solar swallows the earth, whichever occurs first.

OK, that’s it. These are the entire guidelines, I swear. Let’s transfer on to the contributors. Though the gamers are not seeded, we’ll nonetheless focus on them within the order of their dwelling run totals.

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson turned 23 on June 29, so he has the prospect to develop into the youngest champion in Derby historical past. As a second-year participant who gained’t be eligible for arbitration till 2026, the million-dollar prize for first place would greater than double his wage, and the $750,000 runner-up prize would very practically double it as effectively. Primarily based on his efficiency this season, he additionally has a powerful case as the favourite. His 28 homers rank third in baseball behind Choose and Ohtani, and his 56.7% hard-hit charge ranks fourth amongst certified gamers behind these two and Juan Soto. Henderson additionally leads the Derby contributors with a mean bat velocity of 75.8 mph (which can also be good for ninth in all of baseball). Not that it’s notably related to the Derby, however Henderson is second within the majors with 6.1 WAR, only a hair behind Choose (6.3).

Henderson can also be actually invested within the Derby. On Thursday, he held a legit apply session at Oriole Park, timed by teammate Colton Cowser and pitched by his Derby pitcher, Norfolk Tides supervisor Buck Britton. “I’ve hit his BP effectively,” Henderson instructed reporters when requested why he selected Britton to pitch to him. “He throws good BP and it’s a reasonably straightforward movement.” Nonetheless, Britton famous a possible problem with Henderson’s method. “Hopefully these balls simply recover from the wall,” mentioned Britton. “He hits the ball so onerous, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air” might be key. Henderson is fourth in baseball with 112 blasts, however simply 31 of these blasts have come on fly balls, which sends him right down to twelfth place and third amongst Derby contributors, behind Ozuna (43) and Hernández (32). When Henderson does put the ball within the air, he’s golden. His 31.1% HR/FB charge is the very best in baseball. However earlier than you get too involved about Henderson’s launch angle, look no additional than the final two winners. Henderson’s 46.9% groundball charge is decrease than the 48.2% charge that Soto ran within the first half of 2022, the yr he gained the Derby, and the 49.8% charge that reigning champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put up within the first half of final season.

Marcell Ozuna

There’s no getting round this: Ozuna was a horrible option to characterize Main League Baseball in such a celebratory occasion. In 2021, he was arrested for a home violence incident, a part of which was captured on physique cam footage. The fees have been dropped when Ozuna agreed to take part in a pretrial diversion program. He was additionally arrested for driving underneath the affect in 2022 and pleaded no contest in 2023. It’s not as if there’s any standards for the Derby that compelled MLB to place Ozuna entrance and heart; his All-Star choice serves as its personal acknowledgement of the very robust season he’s having. So inviting him to take part within the Derby, the league’s most fan-oriented and family-friendly evening of the yr, is an energetic selection, one which sends a really clear message in regards to the league’s values. Ozuna has hit 26 dwelling runs this season.

José Ramírez

For the reason that begin of the 2016 season, Ramírez has put up 46.5 WAR, fifth in baseball. However don’t let the truth that he’s one of many recreation’s best all-around gamers obscure his energy. For the reason that begin of the 2017 season, Ramírez has hit 220 dwelling runs, sixth most in baseball. Additionally, don’t sleep on Ramírez tonight simply based mostly on how he carried out in his first Derby look, in 2022, when he batted right-handed due to a serious thumb damage that fully sapped his energy. This yr, he’s anticipated to bat left-handed, and the ability is again. This season he’s tied for sixth in baseball with 23 dwelling runs. Ramírez’s common homer this season travels 388 toes, the shortest distance among the many group, however that shouldn’t essentially be held towards him. It’s a results of his give attention to pulling balls on the air, a superb recipe for achievement and one thing he does extra often than every other participant. Likewise, though Ramírez has the bottom Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity of the group, at 103.9 mph, he can dial issues up when he desires to. His hardest-hit ball of the yr was 116.6 mph, which trails solely Witt among the many group and ranks twelfth in all of baseball.

The fascinating factor is that it would truly make extra sense for Ramírez to bat right-handed tonight, and never simply because righties have a neater time leaving the yard at Globe Life. Over the course of his profession, 69% of his homers have come from the left aspect, however that’s largely as a result of he faces far more righty pitchers than lefties, which means he bats left-handed way more often than he does righty. His energy output on a charge foundation is about the identical from either side; throughout his profession, he’s homered in 4.1% of his plate appearances when he bats left-handed in addition to when he hits righty, and both sides’s HR/FB ratio is almost an identical, too. That mentioned, he undoubtedly has the potential for extra energy from the fitting aspect. His exit velocity, barrel charge, and hard-hit charge are decrease from the left aspect this season and over the course of his profession. With the introduction of bat monitoring information, I can let you know that this season, his bat velocity averages 74.2 mph from the fitting aspect, practically 4 mph sooner than his 70.3 mark from the left aspect. In response to Mike Petriello, who might be calling the Derby on ESPN 2 tonight, “on balls hit within the air, each 1 mph of bat velocity earns you roughly six extra toes of distance.” That’s a distinction of practically 24 toes.

Teoscar Hernández

Contemplating he has by no means completed a season with greater than 32 dwelling runs — in 2021, his solely 30-homer marketing campaign — Hernández may be straightforward to miss, however he’s a powerful darkish horse candidate. The 31-year-old has been one of many recreation’s most constant energy hitters ever since he turned a big-league common in 2018. If we ignore the 2020 season, when Hernández managed 16 homers in simply 50 video games, then he’s hit a minimum of 25 homers in every of the final 4 seasons, and a minimum of 20 in every of the final 5. He could not lead this yr’s eight contributors in anybody class, however since 2018, he’s by no means as soon as completed a season beneath the eightieth percentile in barrel charge, common exit velocity, or max exit velocity.

Maybe much more essential than his credentials is the truth that Hernández actually desires to win. He overtly campaigned to be included, and as soon as he was chosen, he sought recommendation from Guerrero Jr., a two-time Derby contestant who gained final yr’s match, and Ohtani, his Dodgers teammate who participated within the 2021 Derby. The 2 warned him in regards to the impact that fatigue can play, and Hernández has mentioned that he’ll give attention to lifting the ball somewhat than tiring himself out with max-effort hacks. “I feel I’ve somewhat little bit of a bonus as a result of I swing quite a bit,” Hernández mentioned. “I take lots of swings every single day. My physique is used to going swing, swing, swing with out getting relaxation.”

Hernández has held two timed apply classes along with his Derby pitcher, Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, whose son Brady simply participated within the Excessive College House Run Derby this weekend. Anybody who’s watched the Derby recurrently is aware of that the pitcher makes an enormous distinction, and in Ebel, Hernández might need one thing of a secret weapon. This might be his fourth Derby pitching look on the big-league degree, and he additionally pitched in two minor league derbies. He helped Vladimir Guerrero win the 2007 Derby, then pitched to Albert Pujols in 2015 and Joc Pederson in 2019.

Pete Alonso

Alonso has been in a funk currently; he has simply two dwelling runs this month, and over his final 12 video games, he’s batting .196 with no extra-base hits and a 41 wRC+. However don’t child your self: Alonso is a prolific dwelling run hitter. For the reason that begin of the 2019 season, when he was named NL Rookie of the Yr after main the majors with 53 homers, Alonso has clobbered 211 dwelling runs, essentially the most in all of baseball. He’s performed in solely 4 full seasons, and he’s already one in every of simply 48 gamers in main league historical past with a minimum of three seasons of 40 or extra homers. The 6-foot-3, 245-pound Polar Bear can also be proficient at crushing Derby dingers. He gained back-to-back titles in 2019 and 2021 and has participated in each subsequent Derby. A 3rd victory would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the document, although he’ll want to look in three extra after this one if he desires to tie Junior’s document of eight appearances. Alonso has requested former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, who pitched to him in 2021 and 2022, to return again and pitch once more after final yr’s first-round exit.

This season, Alonso’s common exit velocity has fallen all the way in which right down to the thirty fifth percentile, however he can nonetheless bash the ball when he will get maintain of it. His most exit velocity has by no means dropped beneath the 97th percentile, and his 75.1-mph bat velocity is second solely to Henderson amongst Derby contributors. Crucially, Alonso doesn’t must elevate the ball to hit it out. This season, 9.4% of his line drives have left the ballpark. That ranks second amongst all gamers who’ve hit a minimum of 25 line drives, and it’s greater than twice the speed of six of his seven Derby opponents. Alonso additionally boasts the hardest-hit dwelling run of all eight contributors, a 115.3-mph blast on Could 16.

Adolis García

García is without doubt one of the most enjoyable gamers in baseball, however he’s at present sitting on -0.1 WAR for the season. However even in a replacement-level yr, his energy numbers are nonetheless formidable. His hard-hit charge, barrel charge, common exit velocity, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, whereas down from final yr, nonetheless rank within the 83th percentile or larger. Furthermore, García clearly nonetheless has top-level energy, as he hit the toughest ball of his complete profession, a scorching 116.1-mph line drive double, again in Could.

For just a few causes, García must be a favourite. First, he’s received Derby expertise. Though he crashed out of final yr’s first spherical with 17 homers, the second-lowest complete of all eight contributors, he was pacing for a terrific spherical till he fell right into a funk and he hit simply two dwelling runs over the ultimate minute. The following issue can’t be overstated: García excels underneath the intense lights. He launched 39 dwelling runs final season, after which added eight extra within the playoffs, together with a five-game homer streak that stretched from the ALCS to the World Sequence. In entrance of a house crowd that’s sure to be going loopy for him, García might be giving it his all, and his all is an entire lot. If you happen to watched the Fall Basic, you realize that when García desires to hit one out of the ballpark, he’s received simply in regards to the fiercest dwelling run hack within the recreation. Regardless of how he fares, García is certain to placed on a present.

Bobby Witt Jr.

This can be Bobby Witt Jr.’s first MLB House Run Derby, but it surely’s not precisely his first rodeo. In 2018, Witt gained the Excessive College House Run Derby at Nationals Park, out-dueling Rece Hinds – sure, the identical Rece Hinds who has carried out nothing however crush monster dwelling runs throughout his first week as a giant leaguer – within the remaining spherical. In a contest just like the Derby, it is smart to have a look at how gamers do after they’re served up pitches proper down the center, and each Witt’s 71.7% hard-hit charge and 99.6-mph exit velocity on these meatballs lead the eight contributors by far.

Witt’s Statcast sliders are crimson sufficient to make a vampire salivate, and he tops all contributors in barrels and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. This season, his common dwelling run has traveled 418 toes. Nobody else within the Derby has a mean above 410. Witt can also be the one participant to hit a homer greater than 450 toes this season, and he did it twice. In brief, there’s nobody within the Derby who can hit the ball more durable than Witt.

Don’t let Witt’s placement this far down on the record idiot you. Though his 16 homers are the second-lowest complete amongst contributors, Statcast credit him with 21.2 anticipated homers, fourth most. That hole of 5.2 homers is the most important in baseball. Not solely is Witt the type of all-around athlete you shouldn’t guess towards in any type of abilities competitors, he’s additionally coming into the Derby with a full head of steam. Over the previous two weeks, he’s batting .409 with 4 homers and a 215 wRC+.

Alec Bohm

Bohm is the apparent underdog. With a 130 wRC+, the 27-year-old is having a breakout season. However whilst he’s added a tick of exit velocity and practically 4 proportion factors to his hard-hit charge, he’s hardly a house run hitter. His 11 lengthy balls put him in a 16-way tie for the 89th-highest complete in baseball, and he’s the one Derby participant who isn’t on tempo to achieve the 20-homer threshold. Bohm has hit only one ball lengthy sufficient to earn a bonus this season, a 427-foot shot on June 30. Nonetheless, earlier than you conclude that Bohm doesn’t have a snowball’s probability in Arlington to win this factor, take into account that not one of the final three Derby winners was seeded higher than fourth.

Additionally, Bohm has gained a derby earlier than. In 2016, he gained the derby of the Coastal Plain League, a wood-bat collegiate summer season league. Scott Wingo, who coached Bohm’s Wilmington Sharks and pitched to him in that derby, will pitch to him once more tonight. It’s additionally doable that Bohm may benefit from the brand new guidelines. In a Derby the place taking a pitch comes with a better penalty, the power to drive something you see might matter extra. Consistency has all the time been an underrated a part of success within the Derby, and no participant comes near squaring up the ball as typically as does Bohm. On a per-swing foundation, he ranks seventh amongst all certified gamers in hard-hit charge, ninth in squared-up charge, and eleventh in blast charge. If he can get in a groove, he might have an opportunity.

Who’s Going to Win

If you happen to’ve learn Jay Jaffe’s previews in earlier years, you realize that Jay closes with a prediction. Much more annoyingly for me, he’s very often proper. Jay predicted Bryce Harper’s 2018 win, Alonso’s in 2019, and Vladito’s simply final yr. I can’t promise Jay’s degree of accuracy, and I genuinely imagine that the sector is vast open, however my intestine tells me to go along with Bobby Witt Jr. I say that not simply because he’s able to placing on a present when he’s locked in, however as a result of he’s such a bodily marvel that even when he’s not locked in, he’s received sufficient energy to push him by means of. I now stay up for watching Witt flame out within the first spherical.