There have at all times been pretty excessive expectations for Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. He entered the 2015 draft thought of one of many 60 or so greatest skills obtainable and as a substitute vaulted to the No. 12 general choice when the Marlins took him and lower an under-slot take care of him, signing him for a $2.25MM bonus that clocked in shy of his $3.05MM slot worth.
As if the draft inventory wasn’t sufficient, Naylor was quickly included in a pair of comparatively high-profile trades. Miami despatched him to the Padres alongside Carter Capps, Jarred Cosart and, ahem, Luis Castillo (whoops) in alternate for Andrew Cashner, Colin Rea and Tayron Guerrero. Naylor ranked among the many recreation’s top-100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and made his debut with San Diego that season earlier than being packaged with Owen Miller, Austin Hedges, Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias and Cal Quantrill to accumulate Mike Clevinger, Greg Allen and Matt Waldron from Cleveland (once more… whoops).
For the primary three seasons of Naylor’s profession, he was an up-and-down first baseman/outfielder/designated hitter who didn’t do a lot hitting. In his first 633 plate appearances, he posted an anemic .250/.306/.389 batting line (88 wRC+). His 19.1% strikeout charge was decrease than the league common, however so was his 7% stroll charge. Naylor hit the ball on the bottom at an enormous 51.6% clip, which is way from perfect for a hitter who drew 20- and 30-grade marks for his pace as a prospect. He was borderline passive on the dish, solely swinging at 48% of pitches thrown.
In what amounted to roughly a full season’s value of plate appearances (603) over that three-year span, Naylor was kind of a replacement-level participant. He made loads of contact however didn’t do a lot harm with it and didn’t actually contribute defensively. Naylor posted below-average grades from each Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Common within the outfield corners and solely noticed sparse motion at first base (106 innings).
In 2022, the Guardians moved Naylor to first base full time. Whether or not he felt extra snug there and thus on the plate, or whether or not he merely tailored to large league pitching after getting a number of hundred plate appearances below his belt, a nook was clearly turned. Naylor took an enormous step ahead on the dish, smacking a career-best 20 homers whereas hitting .256/.319/.452 in 498 plate appearances. His stroll charge crept up from 5.6% to 7.6% His strikeout charge dipped from 18% to 16.1%. Issues continued trending in a constructive path in 2023, with Naylor reducing the strikeout charge all the best way to 13.7% as he turned in a good higher .308/.354/.489 slash.
This season, Naylor’s gone from a strong middle-of-the-order hitter behind star teammate Jose Ramirez to a star-caliber bat himself, nonetheless. He’s out to a blistering .295/.366/.557 begin, and it’s not the kind of early-season fluke that’s propped up by a .400-something common on balls in play. Naylor’s .274 BABIP is definitely 21 factors decrease than the .295 mark he carried into the season, in reality. So what’s modified?
For starters, the Ok-BB profile has solely continued to get higher. He’s strolling at an 8.9% clip that’d be proper in step with his 9% career-best mark from again in his rookie season. His 10.9% strikeout charge isn’t only a career-best — it’s tied with Mookie Betts for the eighth-lowest in MLB. Naylor has at all times been a free swinger who’s chased off the plate loads; he swung at 38.4% of pitches off the plate in his profession previous to 2024. This 12 months, he’s at 32.6%. His general contact charge is definitely down a tick, however that’s simpler to abdomen when he’s shedding extra dangerous balls and dealing himself into higher counts.
It’s additionally partially resulting from what seems to be a acutely aware effort to do extra harm on the plate. Greater than half of Naylor’s batted balls (50.4%) have been hit on the bottom by way of his first 4 seasons. He lowered his ground-ball charge in every of his first 4 MLB seasons however took a significant soar in 2023, reducing that grounder charge from 48.9% in ’22 to 42.7%. This 12 months, Naylor is barely placing 40.5% of his batted balls on the bottom. Each his 22.8% line-drive charge and 36.7% fly-ball charge are career-high marks.
As one would anticipate, elevating the ball extra commonly is resulting in significantly extra harm. Naylor could also be sacrificing a little bit of contact, however he possesses such sturdy bat-to-ball expertise that you just’ll not often see him swing by way of a number of pitches in the identical at-bat. And the additional oomph in his swing is producing higher outcomes not simply in his charge stats however within the under-the-hood numbers as properly. Naylor’s 90.7 mph common exit velocity, 12.7% barrel charge and 44.3% hard-hit charge — as measured by Statcast — are all straightforward career-highs. He’s seen 20.7% of his fly-balls clear the fence for house runs — a significant enchancment over his profession 13% mark and the single-season career-high of 15.9% he established in 2022.
For years, the Guardians have cast an id as a crew filled with pesky, tough-to-strike-out hitters who put the ball in play but additionally typically lacked pop. Ramirez was a real heart-of-the-order slugger who managed to embody that contact-driven focus whereas nonetheless hitting for energy, however Cleveland lacked anybody else who match that profile. It’s early in 2024, however Naylor appears to be like to be determining the recipe for toeing that very same line. The six homers he’s hit in 101 plate appearances is already one shy of his 2021 complete in 250 plate appearances and already 30% of the best way to his career-high in solely 20% the enjoying time.
Nonetheless simply 26 years previous, Naylor stays in his bodily prime and is refining an already sturdy method and plan on the plate in a means that’s letting him faucet into the 60- to 70-grade marks that scouts placed on his energy throughout his prospect days. In doing so, he seems on the cusp of breaking out as a doubtlessly elite hitter.
Heading into the season, with questions on how the Guardians would fare coming off a disappointing 2023 season, it was affordable to view Naylor as a attainable summer season commerce candidate. A number of golf equipment expressed curiosity him over the winter. He’s costly by Cleveland requirements, incomes $6.55MM this 12 months, and can very seemingly command a increase to north of $10MM in 2025 — his last season of membership management. The Guardians have a behavior of buying and selling gamers earlier than the get to the purpose the place they might take a look at free company.
However Cleveland’s glorious begin to the season, even within the midst of a extreme slate of pitching accidents, ought to have followers of different golf equipment pumping the brakes on the concept of prying Naylor from the Guardians’ grasp. If the wave of pitching accidents proves to be too tough to resist and the Guards ultimately fall out of the race, it may nonetheless be a chance. However proper now, Naylor is without doubt one of the driving elements in Cleveland’s sizzling begin to the season and breaking out as a important cog in a lineup that’s vastly exceeding expectations.
