Relationship again to August 31, 2023, the Padres have the very best document in baseball. They’ve the second-highest run differential in that point, trailing solely the Brewers, towards whom they simply took two out of three on the highway. To be clear, these are enjoyable info for the jumbotron slightly than significant or predictive metrics. In any case, the Padres of late 2023 look fairly a bit completely different from the Padres of early 2024, and their efficiency from final September is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Even so, it’s sufficient to make you cease and assume, “Hey, these Padres are nonetheless fairly good!”
That’s to not say the Padres ever regarded like a foul staff. Nevertheless, it could have been simple to put in writing them off, at the least subconsciously, after final yr’s disappointing efficiency and the offseason that adopted. The Padres ranked second within the NL in pitching WAR and third in place participant WAR final season, but they completed simply 82-80. And though they have been in a position to safe a successful document on the ultimate day of the common season, they actually misplaced greater than they gained over the winter. As their three largest opponents within the NL West added six of our prime 9 free brokers (and 10 of our prime 21), the Padres misplaced their greatest hitter (Juan Soto), their nearer (Josh Hader), their ace (Blake Snell), and three extra succesful arms from the rotation (Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez), all whereas slashing payroll by practically $90 million.
It’s not that they have been punting on the 2024 season. The Padres acquired again 4 gamers with MLB expertise within the Soto commerce (righty starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Higashioka, and right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez) and later flipped the ultimate piece (righty Drew Thorpe) as a part of the package deal for his or her new prime pitcher, Dylan Stop. Additionally they signed two notable free agent relievers (lefties Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta) to hitch Brito, fellow commerce acquisition Enyel De Los Santos, and Rule 5 draft decide Stephen Kolek in a new-look bullpen. (San Diego additionally signed righty reliever Woo-Suk Go from the KBO, however he struggled in spring coaching, didn’t make the Opening Day roster, and is at present pitching in reduction with Double-A San Antonio.)
Nonetheless, the Padres have been by no means going to make up for all they misplaced whereas concurrently resetting their luxurious tax penalties. Thus, San Diego was not possible to disregard over the winter but simple to miss because the season started. Groups that lose a generational famous person, a multiple-time Cy Younger winner, and a stud nearer after an 82-win season usually don’t issue into the playoff race the next yr. However who would ever name the Padres regular?
Our playoff odds at present provides the Padres a 46.2% probability to make the postseason, they usually have the third-highest odds (35.3%) to safe a Nationwide League Wild Card berth, trailing solely the Phillies (52.9%) and Diamondbacks (36.2%). The race stays large open, with the Mets, Giants, and whoever doesn’t win the NL Central additionally within the working. San Diego is just one sport above .500, however at this level within the season, that’s an 85-win tempo. There’s a variety of season left to play, however as issues stand, the Padres are in fairly fine condition.
Take into account this: Regardless of shedding Soto, the Padres have had no hassle scoring runs. Wednesday marked the primary time they’ve been shut out this season. The lineup is averaging 5.2 runs per sport, and its 113 wRC+ ranks fourth within the Nationwide League.
The largest contributor has been precisely the person who wanted to be the largest contributor: Fernando Tatis Jr. After a dismal second half to the 2023 season (86 wRC+), he entered the 2024 marketing campaign all out of excuses. Thus far, he hasn’t wanted any. His 148 wRC+ is paying homage to his numbers from his first three seasons. Though he hasn’t hit for fairly as a lot energy as he did from 2019-21, Tatis already has set a brand new profession excessive in most exit velocity (116.7 mph). Furthermore, he’s whiffing lower than ever, and his strikeout fee is considerably beneath common for the primary time in his profession.
Jake Cronenworth is in the course of a bounce-back season as properly, with a 125 wRC+ by means of 19 video games. If Tatis seems like his outdated self, then Cronenworth seems like a complete new man. After posting a meager .301 wOBA and an equally unimposing .305 xwOBA final yr, Cronenworth is tearing the quilt off the ball in 2024. His 44.1% hard-hit fee is a profession excessive, as is his 15.3% barrel fee (9 barrels on 59 batted balls). Even higher, he’s hitting the ball properly with out sacrificing his elite contact abilities or plus plate self-discipline. It nonetheless appears like a little bit of a waste to have a succesful second baseman taking part in a easier place, but when Cronenworth retains hitting like this, his bat will play at first. He’s at present day-to-day with a light leg damage however shouldn’t be out for lengthy.
As an added bonus, Jurickson Profar can be off to an outstanding begin. Whereas historical past and customary sense inform us this gained’t final ceaselessly, it’s onerous to search out a lot fault together with his early season efficiency. His .341 xwOBA isn’t jaw-dropping like his .394 wOBA, however it’s nonetheless a profession excessive. No person expects Profar to go shot for shot with Tatis all season, but when he may be even only a league-average bat going ahead, that might be a significant enhance for the Padres.
Along with these three bounce-back candidates, San Diego is having fun with the beginning of a breakout season from heart fielder Jackson Merrill. Whereas his .396 BABIP is unsustainable, the 20-year-old’s contact abilities look nearly as good as marketed. Like a lot of his fellow Padres, he’s putting out at a properly below-average fee. He hasn’t tapped into a lot of his uncooked energy, however Merrill has knocked his justifiable share of hard-hit singles en path to a 140 wRC+. Most significantly, he hasn’t regarded overmatched towards huge league pitching.
The one hitter within the Padres lineup who has been actually disappointing to date is Xander Bogaerts. The newly minted second baseman is hitting an abysmal .200/.273/.263 with a 60 wRC+, worst amongst hitters on San Diego’s energetic roster. It’s far too early to stress over the five-time Silver Slugger, who has been constantly glorious on the plate since 2018. That stated, the staff will want him to bust out of his droop ultimately to select up the slack when Profar inevitably regresses. Fortunately for the Padres, if historical past suggests Profar’s wRC+ will drop by about 50 factors, they’ll anticipate Bogaerts’ to extend by the identical quantity.
Contemplating that Manny Machado had offseason elbow surgical procedure and returned to the lineup in time for Opening Day, the Padres ought to actually be happy that his offensive numbers are nonetheless above common (118 wRC+) and proper in step with his efficiency from final season. His .302 xwOBA is regarding, however his hard-hit and barrel charges are the very best they’ve been since 2021. The issue is he’s drilling balls into the bottom at a a lot greater fee (54.8%) than ever earlier than — his profession groundball fee is 41.7% — although we must always anticipate his batted-ball profile to return to regular because the season progresses and he will get additional faraway from the damage, which to date has restricted him to DH responsibility. He’s anticipated to return to 3rd base by the tip of April, however it stays unclear when he’ll be prepared for an on a regular basis position within the area. Regardless, the Padres can be higher off together with his glove at third and extra flexibility from the DH spot.
To that time, the newly signed Donovan Solano may get loads of reps at DH as soon as Machado returns to 3rd. Solano can even play all three bases, giving supervisor Mike Shildt loads of flexibility with regards to his infield alignment. Now 36 years outdated, Solano is probably not a plus defender anyplace however first, however he has been an above-average hitter for the previous 5 seasons (112 wRC+ since 2019). When he’s prepared for MLB motion, he can provide the Padres one other succesful bat on the backside of a deep lineup. With Solano changing the present third base platoon of Tyler Wade and Eguy Rosario, the Padres would have eight hitters within the order with a projected rest-of-season wRC+ of at the least 100. The one exception is Merrill, who to date looks like a powerful candidate to surpass his Fiftieth-percentile projections:
Padres Relaxation-of-Season Projections
Hitter
Depth Charts Projected wRC+
Xander Bogaerts
113
Fernando Tatis Jr.
137
Jake Cronenworth
108
Manny Machado
120
Jurickson Profar
101
Ha-Seong Kim
103
Jackson Merrill
96
Luis Campusano
101
Donovan Solano
100
Curiously sufficient, though the Soto commerce was the prevailing story of San Diego’s offseason, the staff in the end misplaced extra expertise on the pitching facet. Snell, Lugo, Wacha, and Martinez began 91 video games in 2023, accounting for 58% of the rotation’s innings and 71% of its WAR. The Padres additionally misplaced a ton of arms from the bullpen. Along with Hader, they parted with Scott Barlow, Luis García, and the aforementioned Martinez; on prime of his 9 begins, Martinez led the staff in reduction innings final season.
Unsurprisingly, A.J. Preller pursued pitching this winter, including Stop and King as cheaper options to a few of the starters the Padres misplaced. The staff was additionally relying on full seasons from Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, who made a mixed 41 begins in 2023. You’ll be able to see how it could make sense in idea: Stop would change Snell, King would change Lugo, and an additional 20 begins from Musgrove and Darvish would change Wacha. If all have been to go in response to plan, that could possibly be a reasonably robust rotation, even with out a clear fifth starter. Certainly, the Padres ranked seventh on our beginning pitching positional energy rankings this yr.
How is that plan figuring out to date? Stop has been glorious over his first 4 begins. His fastball velocity is up, and he has pitched to a 1.99 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 22.2 IP. His xERA and xFIP look extra like his numbers from final season than his star-making 2022 marketing campaign, however that’s not such a foul factor. He was nonetheless a 3.7-WAR pitcher over 33 begins in 2023. In addition to, with Petco Park and the Padres protection to assist hold his BABIP down, his ERA ought to drop considerably from final yr’s 4.58 mark. In the meantime, King has been inconsistent, with two sensible begins hidden amongst three clunkers. He must cease issuing so many free passes (15 walks in 27 innings), however the two gems he has already thrown present that he can nonetheless be the dominant arm he was down the stretch final season.
Sadly, Musgrove has been one thing of a catastrophe, whereas Darvish is exhibiting his age. By means of 5 begins, Musgrove has a 6.29 ERA and a 5.13 FIP; his strikeout fee is low (7.40 Okay/9), his stroll fee is excessive (4.07 BB/9), and his velocity is down a tick. He has added horizontal motion to his slider and he’s throwing it extra typically after scaling again on the breaking pitch final season. Nevertheless, opposing hitters have been all around the remainder of his arsenal, hitting for a .433 wOBA (.471 xwOBA) towards all different pitches. Darvish has been strong by means of 5 begins of his personal, however most of his underlying numbers are just a little worse than common, and he simply landed on the IL with neck tightness. There’s no motive to concern the worst, however Darvish, 37, may simply be on the level in his profession the place we have now to anticipate a sluggish decline and nagging accidents.
That might spell an issue for a Padres staff working low on beginning pitching depth. Matt Waldron has regarded like a succesful back-end starter over his first three outings, however the knuckleballer is already one thing of a wild card, and the choices behind him are uninspiring. Pedro Avila was DFA’d, Brito hasn’t pitched properly out of the bullpen this yr, and Vásquez is struggling at Triple-A. The Padres rotation was so profitable final season not simply due to its prime contributors however due to its depth. That gained’t be the case in 2024.
In the meantime, the largest drawback within the bullpen is the dearth of high-end expertise. Robert Suarez is San Diego’s solely reliever with nice stuff and an enormous league observe document. Matsui has huge potential however must show himself, whereas Peralta has a historical past of success however poor peripherals and pitching modeling numbers. De Los Santos at present leads the bullpen in FIP and WAR, however that’s simply additional affirmation that this group would look so much higher if everybody have been pushed down a spot.
In the end, the pitching workers will make or break this season for the Padres. The offense seems robust (Wednesday’s shutout loss apart), and the protection ought to be formidable with Tatis in proper, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and a wholesome Machado again on the sizzling nook. The rotation, then again, is filled with questions from prime to backside. What’s extra, the Padres lack the bullpen to compensate when their starters battle and the depth to compensate if their starters get damage. San Diego’s playoff odds are rather less than a coin flip proper now, and that feels about proper. Heads, the important thing members of the rotation keep wholesome and carry out as anticipated. Tails, the Padres are left on the skin wanting in as soon as once more.