Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to my Tuesday chat. Apologies for the technical glitch when it comes to the pre-chat queue however we needs to be up and operating.

Jay Jaffe: Pouring one out for Whitey Herzog, the Corridor of Fame supervisor finest identified for piloting the Cardinals to the 1982 championship and two different pennants.

Jay Jaffe: And pouring one other one out for Carl Erskine, a real mensch who not solely helped the Dodgers to 5 pennants and their 1955 championship — and threw two no-hitters as properly — however turned “a fierce champion of human rights, racial equality and, when his late son Jimmy was born with Down syndrome, turned immersed in preventing for individuals with particular wants.”

The Corridor of Fame honored Erskine with the Buck O’Neill Lifetime Achievement Award final summer season https://www.indystar.com/story/sports activities/2024/04/16/indianas-carl-erskine…

WinTwins0410: Jay, I hate to “keep in mind some guys” an excessive amount of to begin a chat, but it surely looks as if we’ve misplaced quite a lot of attention-grabbing baseball guys these days — Ken Holtzman, Whitey Herzog, Carl Erskine, Fritz Peterson, Jerry Grote and even Pat Zachry.  Curious in case you plan to do a full-on article about Whitey.  I hope you’ll!

Jay Jaffe: Forgot about Holtzman, who was an enormous a part of the A’s three straight championships and holds the report for many wins by a Jewish pitcher (174).

Jay Jaffe: I’m occupied with whether or not I can pull off a Herzog tribute in a well timed style.

bringbackpologrounds: Do you see Altuve parlaying his excellent begin into severe MVP competition?

Jay Jaffe: Clearly he gained’t keep that. However can he contend for an MVP award at age 33? Shade me skeptical. Clearly he stays a wonderful hitter, however he’s had a tough time staying wholesome, with simply 90 video games final yr and 141 the yr earlier than. Most of his time missed was as a result of damaged thumb he sustained within the World Baseball Basic, however he hasn’t performed 150 video games in a season since 2017. It might actually be one thing to see if he did, although!

Volpe: Not at THIS stage, however, the best way individuals thought Volpe’s rookie yr was going to be his offensive expertise endlessly is fairly shocking. Not everyone seems to be his new RF teammate.

Jay Jaffe: Baseball followers are usually impatient, and one byproduct of the Prospect Industrial Advanced is that highly-touted younger gamers who don’t ship instantly trigger some severely irrational reactions. That Volpe truly had a fairly respectable rookie season at age 21 was camouflaged by his .209 AVG

Jay Jaffe: He’s hitting .373/.464/.542 however curiously sufficient has solely barreled two balls (4%). I do know Esteban Rivera goes to take a more in-depth search for us quickly.

Phil: Guys like Tyler O’Neill fascinate me. Former prime prospect below 30 with a six-win season up to now needs to be able to producing one other related, if wholesome. As a Crimson Sox fan watching him play, I don’t perceive how he obtained a repute as a non-hustler, if that even is his repute. Assuming his newest harm actually is only a few brow stitches, how shocked would you actually be if he outdoes his 2021 season?

Jay Jaffe: I assumed Oliver Marmol calling out O’Neill in April final yr throughout a moist sport for not operating exhausting was some of the bush league acts i’ve seen from a significant league supervisor in awhile

Jay Jaffe: Man has a big historical past of leg accidents, is operating on a moist monitor, and was thrown out by Acuña? Perhaps you are taking him apart and tackle your notion of the difficulty, however embarrassing a participant publicly like that, woof.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, as i famous final week earlier than he obtained banged up once more (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-who-tyler-oneill-is-the-hottest-hit…), O’Neill is off to a powerful begin, hitting the ball a lot tougher than in 2022 or ’23, and I believe the well being of his legs has quite a bit to do with it. Unsure if he can match 2021 but when he can keep wholesome he’ll be the best Sox outfielder since Mookie.

Idiotic Failson: Is Goldy cooked?

Jay Jaffe: Hmm. He’s not hitting the ball exhausting, is chasing extra, and has much more swing-and-miss than normal. 28.6% strikeout fee, 2.4% barrel fee, 54 wRC+. He did decline notably from 2022 to ’23, however I believe it’s extra doubtless he’s coping with one thing injury- or mechanics-related than it s an much more dramatic fall-off, although he’s 36.

Bardo Invoice: Suppose Xander Bogaerts has like 9 extra 3-WAR seasons in a row (with some affordable year-to-year variation) earlier than tailing off within the final couple years of his profession. Ends his profession with one thing like 65 WAR, ekes out 3000 hits. But it surely’s additionally like a 112 wRC+ for his profession with mediocre protection. Is that (and may or not it’s) a corridor of fame profession?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, most likely. Proper now he’s at 39.4/34.7/37.1 for profession/peak/JAWS. Assuming that peak rating stays untouched and he will get to 65.3 WAR, that’s a 50 JAWS, which wouldn’t be a slam dunk by itself however when mixed with 3,000 hits is fairly clearly gonna get a man into Cooperstown.

Matt VW: Along with his season ending harm, Trevor Story will publish 3.5 bWAR within the first three years of his Crimson Sox contract. Xander Bogaerts posted 10.3 bWAR over the primary two years of the identical span, with practically a full season so as to add on.

I do know nobody tries to get harm, however this casts the Crimson Sox’s willpower to half with Bogaerts in a fairly unhealthy gentle. How a lot of this was foreseeable and the way a lot simply unhealthy luck?

Jay Jaffe: The Crimson Sox have made some fairly doubtful selections in the case of seeing a few of their homegrown stars off in recent times— Lester, Mookie, Bogaerts — however hey, John Henry’s gotta be proud of that payroll flexibility, proper?

Jay Jaffe: Given the Coors Subject issue and his elbow and shoulder woes it was all the time a bit difficult to get a really feel for what Story’s offense would seem like as soon as he modified groups, however a few of that is simply unhealthy luck. Then once more, there’s a purpose he value $140M to Bogaerts’ $280M, so not less than a few of this was fairly obvious that they had been taking a step down.

seth r: pitchers stuff++ arms fall off greater than ever and groups don’t thoughts grinding 22y/o exhausting throwers into mud, how does MLBPA shield pitchers who don’t make it to free company? power a distinct arb course of for pitchers to get them paid earlier?

Jay Jaffe: I want I knew. Over half the union is pitchers, and so lots of them are keen to chase velocity within the face of harm threat — whether or not it’s to hold onto an enormous league bullpen spot or to internet that pre-free company extension that acts as a security internet — that I’m undecided you possibly can get them to agree on a tack to absorb negotiations. The gamers actually do should prioritize getting paid earlier of their careers on the whole, and the scenario with pitching accidents solely calls consideration to it much more. Not all people will be Spencer Strider, netting a record-setting extension that assured generational wealth only a yr and alter into his huge league profession.

the one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: A reuben sandwich, sadly not as sizzling because it ought to have been as a result of the driving force appeared to get misplaced in my neighborhood, winding up a number of blocks south and 10-Quarter-hour later than anticipated.

Kevin: I not too long ago learn some thought-about baseball to have been Jackie Robinson’s fourth finest sport. Have you ever been to the Jackie Robinson Museum, and if that’s the case, what did you consider it?

Jay Jaffe: I do surprise about Robinson in different sports activities; at UCLA he lettered in basketball, soccer, and monitor in addition to baseball. His older brother Mack gained a Gold Medal as a part of Jesse Owens’ relay workforce in 1936, and Jackie gained an NCAA championship within the lengthy soar. I do discover it exhausting to imagine baseball was the least of these sports activities however he was clearly fairly particular as an athlete.

I visited the Jackie Robinson Museum in late 2022 and loved it. It’s not very huge, so simply doable in about 90 minutes or so, but it surely was very properly carried out. A bit text-heavy for youths, however value bringing them if that’s what you take into consideration.

https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/standing/1596585827353534464

Lance Lynn HR Machine: Did the Royals themselves assume their off seasons strikes and participant growth could be this a lot of successful? Or do you assume this season is even already exceeding their finest expectations?

Jay Jaffe: I appreciated the Lugo and Wacha strikes however I doubt even the Royals noticed these as transformative. And let’s not neglect that early data will be significantly distorted by high quality of competitors. The Royals are 5-0 towards the White Sox, 6-6 towards all people else; additionally they went 3-0 towards an Astros workforce whose rotation is fairly depleted. They might be the Royals workforce that turns the nook, and I’m significantly impressed with Bobby Witt Jr. to this point, however let’s see the place this goes.

Jason: Are the Dodgers truly giving to offer Pages a respectable likelihood or is he going to get the final season Michael Busch remedy?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not clear but. That is primarily as a fill-in for Heyward’s roster spot, which successfully places him within the brief half of a platoon with Outman, although it’s extra crowded than that, with the 2 Hernandezes and Chris Taylor additionally on the market. If he hits, he’ll stick round however I believe it is a short-term factor for now

Ske: The NLC has had a enjoyable begin to the yr. After 10% of the season, which workforce do you assume has the perfect likelihood to tug away?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume anybody’s going to tug away. We had the 5 groups forecast for one thing like 77.5-83.5 wins, and no person’s 10-5 or 11-6 begin upends that; quite the opposite, the vary is now 80.6 to 84.1. That is going to be a summer-long grind.

TomBruno23: Trying on the energetic leaders in W and undecided anybody will get to 175 to go Holtzman no matter their faith.

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps a few of them have to go to synagogue extra typically

Jay Jaffe: Gerrit Cole has 145 wins, and I believe I really feel snug taking the “over” on 30 remaining wins, if nothing else.

Visitor: How do you deal with a prime prospect like Jackson Holliday who begins off so poorly?  Ship him again to the minors?  Persist with him?  One thing else?  Looks as if a really robust choice because you don’t wish to sap his confidence, but in addition don’t wish to harm the MLB workforce.

Jay Jaffe: you need to give him greater than 19 PA, which is all he has to this point (one hit and 10 strikeouts, yikes). In the event you don’t do this, then calling him up was a waste of all people’s time, and sending him again down might be going to do extra hurt than good. I can’t think about the Orioles haven’t thought this by already  — you need to not less than contemplate that this may occur if you make such a transfer, and have a plan in place. Perhaps it’s 3 weeks, or 50 PA or one thing, however it is advisable to see whether or not he can alter and the way he handles the adversity. I believe quite a lot of it is dependent upon stuff that’s not seen to us from exterior or that we run the hazard of projecting our personal issues into his head. However I’ll give the Orioles the good thing about the doubt and imagine they’ve a plan in place.

Phil: You might be very proper in regards to the draw back of Prospect Fever. After I was in my teenagers or early twenties, I keep in mind being upset in a number of guys (Darren Bragg, Arquimedes Pozo) who had gotten publicity as a result of they’d been acquired in vital trades. However guys who simply labored their approach by the minors had been clean slates from a fan’s perspective, and it made it extra thrilling when any person took off, and extra regular if it took them a pair years to take action. I’ll always remember seeing Mo Vaughn in his first season, seeing the ball come off his bat and realizing, oh, that is the actual factor. I do know it’s bizarre on an analytics website to say I wish to know much less info, however I do assume there’s a contented medium when it comes particularly to long-term projection of 19-year-old children.

Jay Jaffe: I believe not less than a few of the impatience comes with individuals desirous to get an edge of their fantasy leagues or dynasty leagues or no matter. In fantasy if a man can’t make it easier to at the moment he’s not a lot good and also you may as properly discover somebody who can slightly than carrying a tough rookie season.

the man who asks the questions: How actual is the Yankees pitching? It seems worse if you go from ERA to FIP to xFIP

Jay Jaffe: A 2.93 ERA with a 4.00 FIP is fairly rattling good contemplating they’re with out Cole. I believe Cortes is their largest concern amongst their starters, as three of his 4 outings — all however the one towards the weak-ass Marlins — have been fairly crummy. The opposite factor I’d fear about is that the bullpen isn’t putting many guys out; in reality, their 17.5% Okay fee is second-to-last within the majors, and their FIP is sort of twice their ERA (4.69 to 2.38). I count on quite a lot of regression there.

Mets: All 16 video games they’ve performed this season have come towards workforce with a .500 or higher report (perhaps partly as a result of they’ve performed the Mets) they usually’re hanging in there with out Senga, JD & a struggling Lindor. Are they higher than what we predict/thought?

Jay Jaffe: We forecast them for 80.8 wins and 81.2 losses. To date they’re 8-8. Sure, they’ve carried out it with out Senga and Martinez, and with Lindor not hitting, however are you anticipating a 161 wRC+ out of D.J. Stewart and 115-120 from Baty, Taylor, and Marte? I believe they’ll proceed to be a .500ish workforce

War2D2: Trout is mashing like Trout of yore. What harm do you assume will waylay him this time? My guess is on shedding a toe to a freak glazing accident.

Jay Jaffe: let’s simply say that I need him to avoid all bungee-related exercise

O’s Fan: What do you assume the Orioles ought to do with Santander?  Deadline commerce, extension, qualifying provide, or let him stroll after the season?  He’s off to a sluggish begin however I’d count on him to be round his profession norms when all is claimed and carried out,

Jay Jaffe: Trying on the roster and the excess of younger expertise coming by, I’ve suspected that Santander may very well be a July commerce chip, significantly if Cowser or Kjerstad power the difficulty.

Reid Detmers: Am I legit or is it too small of a pattern measurement?

Jay Jaffe: it’s a small pattern with 2 of his 3 begin towards the identical workforce (Crimson Sox) however these spikes in his fastball and changeup whiff charges bear watching. Each are getting totally different motion than up to now, so I’m wondering if one thing has modified mechanically. Preserve a watch out.

WinTwins0410: Jay, congratulate me. I used to be simply named the Corridor of Fame’s CEO. Along with me making the Casebook *lastly* obtainable within the bookstore/reward store, I’ll make one other huge choice to overtake the Eras Committees. See what you consider this. Whereas now we’ve on a three-year rotating foundation: 1) pre-1980 gamers and non-players together with Negro Leagues gamers; 2) post-1980 gamers; and three) post-1980 managers/executives/umpires; I’ll change it to the next: A two-year cycle through which 12 months 1 consists of 1 poll for pre-1980 gamers and one separate poll for Negro Leagues gamers and 12 months 2 consists of 1 poll for post-1980 gamers and one separate poll for all non-players. Do you see that as an enchancment? (I do.) Or, ought to the Eras Committees return to evaluating Eras Committee gamers from extra than simply two time intervals? And will the Committees evaluate gamers from the longer-ago intervals a bit extra typically? (to stop the Dick Allen/Ron Santo threat of dying earlier than induction)

Jay Jaffe: Congratulations! I like your plan and want to subscribe to your publication.

Jay Jaffe: I believe having the Negro Leagues (and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball) candidates thought-about on one monitor is crucial to no matter replaces the present system.

Jay Jaffe: I’m tremendous with contemplating older eras much less continuously but it surely’s a troublesome steadiness. Contemplating Invoice Dahlen and Lefty O’Doul as soon as each 10 years made sense as a result of they had been lifeless, however as soon as each 5 years for guys of their 80s and 90s simply unhealthy luck.

Edward: Any “concern” with Decide?

Jay Jaffe: A bit, yeah. He’s not hitting the ball as exhausting as normal, although he’s in need of his .241 xBA and .467 xSLG. he’s additionally not putting out as a lot and even swinging as a lot, so I do surprise about that indirect problem he battled in March. If it’s hurting him to swing, they’ve an issue.

kingmitch: What are mookie betts weaknesses? if any?

Jay Jaffe: It typically takes him two bounds to leap over tall buildings, and I’m instructed he tends to underseason his pasta sauces only a bit.

John: If Mookie Betts retires proper now, is he a Corridor of Famer?  I say sure, and consequently submit that McCutchen needs to be, too, even when his peak isn’t fairly as excessive

Jay Jaffe: Huh? Betts is 31, has been enjoying at an all-Star Degree since he was 22 and has 66.6 bWAR, a few of which comes from being 156 runs above common within the discipline. Cutch is 37, hasn’t performed like an All-Star since he was 28, and has 48.6 bWAR, partially as a result of he’s 77 runs under common within the discipline. They’re not shut.

Head of the Breakfast Nook: In the event you surrender 11 hits in 0.2 innings, the chances you’re tipping a few of your pitches have to be pretty excessive.  Proper, Hunter Brown?

Jay Jaffe: Appears fairly more likely to me, particularly that he obtained only one swing and miss out of 40 pitches. Groups are usually fairly cagey in the case of acknowledging whether or not a man is tipping, primarily as a result of it solely invitations extra scrutiny of a pitcher’s each transfer, so we might not all the time get the reality.

birds: Writers have a tendency to offer franchise icons bonus factors in the case of HOF voting (presumably they really feel extra well-known/essential to the game after they’re so essential to a workforce).  Do you will have a neater time voting for guys like that?  Like, is Larry Walker a neater alternative than Gary Sheffield?  Is there anybody borderline you assume is tipped over the road by franchise-hero standing?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume Walker was a very simple alternative in that regard as he truly break up the guts of his profession between the Expos and Rockies. I do assume it’s tougher for a man like Sheffield to get elected as a result of he bounced round a lot, typically as a result of he agitated his approach out of city.

To the extent that being a franchise icon has weighed into my voting I’d say it’s a fairly small bonus that comes from being a part of a run of sustained success. I’ve solely gotten to fill out 4 ballots and those who come to thoughts on this are Ortiz with the Crimson Sox (he’s fairly low in JAWS) and Utley with the Phillies. “Icon” is a little bit of a powerful phrase however I did throw Pettitte a vote this previous yr partially on account of his position within the Yankees’ dynasty.

Zach: How lengthy do the Dodgers give Lux to determine it out? He appeared tremendous in spring however he doesn’t look shut offensively in the mean time. I suppose his surprisingly elite protection at second may purchase him extra time. In some unspecified time in the future, they should see if Trey Sweeney, or perhaps a Vargas transfer again to second, could be higher for the workforce, proper?

Jay Jaffe: as I simply came upon in regards to the transfer in the beginning o this chat I haven’t learn something in regards to the rationale however it could be that the Pages transfer places a squeeze on Lux by bumping Taylor and/or Kiké to extra infield work whereas Lux sits. However I believe he’s nonetheless obtained some runway to determine it out.

Danny: I all the time learn your responses in Nick Offerman’s voice. Unsure how that occurred, however I assumed it’s best to know.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take it! (scowl whereas consuming an enormous plate of bacon)

Doc: Doc Gooden has been within the information not too long ago?  Along with his brief, however historic, peak and conventional daring face achievements (ROY, Cy, No-Hitter, 3 Rings), the place would you rank him among the many intestine of post-Seaver/Palmer/Carlton/Sutton/Niekro sorts exterior the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be glad to see Gooden’s quantity retired by the Mets. I believe it’s forgotten how good a profession he had given the high-profile issues he had. I’ve him 87th in S-JAWS, which is under a bunch of men I’ve endorsed (Cone, Saberhagen, Stieb, Santana, Hamels, Hershiser) and a few I’m extra lukewarm about (Pettitte, even given the aforementioned vote), Buehrle, Hudson. He’s above Oswalt and Félix. None of them had a season like Gooden’s 1985, although. Holy hell was that one thing.

Theeeeeeeee Yankees Win: The ideas of anybody however John Sterling calling Yankees video games appears sacrilegious. I’m in my mid-20s, so he’s all I’ve ever identified! In studying about his profession, I observed he’s by no means been nominated for the Ford C. Frick Award. What would it not take for John to be honored by the Corridor? 35 years calling video games and being the voice of the final dynastic run this sport has seen should be value consideration!

Jay Jaffe: I’m shocked Sterling has by no means been nominated however stylistically, he’s not all people’s cup of tea, and past the nationwide voices, you’ve obtained quite a lot of competitors for recognition as a result of there are quite a lot of broadcasters who had been iconic inside their regional markets.  

I can’t say that Sterling was my favourite announcer, however I grew fonder of him because the years handed, and significantly all the time appreciated tuning right into a Yankees sport with him and Suzyn as we hit visitors on the best way again to NYC from our annual Cape Cod journeys. Like the remainder of this drive is gonna be a goddamn slog however we’ve not less than obtained a ballgame to distract us.

Sterling is hooked up to an entire lot of mostly-positive recollections. He’s beloved inside the business and significantly inside the Yankees group, and I want him all the perfect in his retirement.

Jordan Montgomery: Very like pitchers showing to worth maxing out on their velocity and stuff, are groups doing the identical? Why did it appear nobody valued Jordan Montgomery’s capability to supply 175+ good, if not nice, innings?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it was that no person valued it, it was that they didn’t worth it on the worth Boras was asking, and significantly when he was asking for it, after groups had been fairly locked into their budgets. That he fired Boras as his agent and can doubtless undergo all of this once more subsequent yr is fairly telling.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: Pages – CT3 has appeared dreadful and Kiké hasn’t appeared a lot better. Compulsory “it’s april” however perhaps the start of the top for LA’s two super-Util guys?

Jay Jaffe: Definitely not out of the query. Taylor has been dancing alongside the sting of a cliff since 2022

Arjay: Jack Leiter appears to have gotten his walks below management and continues to be a Okay machine. Is that this the Rangers not desirous to waste any bullets earlier than he will get harm?

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s as a lot in regards to the disarray inside their rotation, with Bradford hitting the IL, Heaney struggling, and the returns of deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle being a number of months away. Leiter solely threw 85 innings final yr so he’s most likely not going to be closely used total; his innings proper now may very well be very helpful to the workforce.

Yelich? Extra like Yelouch: Yelich had few weeks to begin the season! If he stays wholesome/has an all-star stage yr, and repeats it subsequent yr, is he on any form of monitor for HoF consideration? What sort of seasons does he have to have shifting ahead to essentially transfer the needle? (finest case situation being one other couple of seven win years)

Jay Jaffe: He’s actually fallen off since that 2018-19 peak, with only a .407 SLG from 2020-23. he’s at 40.4 bWAR and has simply three seasons above 3.8 WAR. Gonna want a bunch of 5+ seasons, and that i’m skeptical he has them in him.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Re: Hunter Browns final begin, I watched it the day after, and a lot of the hits had been from breaking balls that didn’t break and had been center center.

Jay Jaffe: “What did you consider his execution?”“I’m in favor of it.”

Jay Jaffe: Whoa, the place did the time go?

Jay Jaffe: It’s time for me to pack up and hit the street. Thanks a lot for stopping by. We’ll do that once more quickly (however most likely not subsequent week as a result of my dad and mom are in Brooklyn and my child has no college on account of Passover). Till then, take care…