Three Leaf Clover: what should the Celtics do at the end of games?

The final week or so hasn’t precisely been a banner for the Celtics’ late recreation offense. Most notably had been the 2 losses in Atlanta the place the ghosts of Jayson Tatum’s (and Jaylen Brown’s) previous reared their heads on the highest leverage moments. Like Blissful Gilmore, it’s one thing I’ve watched extra instances than I can rely, and I understand how it ends. In contrast to Blissful Gilmore, the ending often isn’t very joyful (sorry).

Stat of the Week: 1/10 on lengthy mid-range

Going into the second Hawks recreation, that is what the Celtics’ FGAs appeared like when the rating was inside 3 and there was 2 or fewer minutes left (excluding additional time).

There are two locations that bounce out: lengthy midrange and above the break 3s. On these two photographs, the Celtics had been 4/21 (19.0%), which could be very unhealthy! Within the Atlanta recreation they went 1/1 from lengthy mid and 0/1 above the break with these parameters, so nonetheless fairly unhealthy. However outdoors of these two, the Celtics have been both decently or extremely environment friendly, which paints a reasonably clear image to me on the sorts of photographs the Celtics needs to be prioritizing on the finish of video games.

With that mentioned, the above the break 3s don’t trouble me as a lot. The Celtics shoot essentially the most ATB threes within the league and are the second most effective on these photographs. Like a sure hockey participant turned golfer, the long-ball has been a weapon for the Celtics all season. It’s objectively shot for them, particularly when it’s a catch and shoot 3.

There may be virtually no situation the place a protracted middie is an efficient shot, and the very finish of video games isn’t any exception. No one desires to see the Celtics take out the 4-iron and attempt to discover inexperienced from 200+ out.

Typically with the Cs, it’s a failure of course of late-game. I can reside with missed photographs, however lengthy mid-range jumpers, and to a lesser extent above the break threes, are the laziest photographs in basketball. Jayson Tatum can create both of these photographs anytime he desires, and perhaps that’s the issue. I don’t count on the Celtics to appear like the KD-era Warriors with their ball and participant motion late recreation, however there exists a center floor from what it’s appeared like just lately, a center floor we are going to discover in our subsequent part.

Xs and OOooohhhhsss: giving them the Horns in crunch-time

The Celtics have change into predictable on the very finish of video games, usually tossing the ball to one of many Jays and making an attempt to mismatch hunt. Whereas I perceive the argument — it’s low turnover basketball and each the Jays are good at attacking mismatches — it hasn’t labored. It usually results in the dreaded lengthy middie mentioned above, a shot extra distasteful than that Bob Barker.

It’s time they tried one thing else. I might posit that the Celtics ought to depend on actions out of the Horns set often late in video games. Should you aren’t acquainted with Horns, that is what it appears to be like like to begin the set (Jrue Vacation is within the close to nook simply off display):

The important thing parts are two gamers at both facet of the free throw line and two gamers spacing within the corners. Whereas my choice is the model with KP sharing the free throw line with Tatum and JB spacing the nook, whatever the alignment, it places the Celtics’ finest gamers in positions to succeed. Tatum and KP/Brown can function within the excessive publish the place they’re harmful, Derrick White is the first ball-handler, and Jrue/KP/Brown can house out, assault closeouts, come off pin-downs, and usually trigger havoc out of the corners.

The Celtics often run this all through video games, and within the second Atlanta recreation, they ran it three straight instances within the ultimate 4 minutes.

Three straight possessions and three straight buckets. They weren’t the epitome of lovely basketball, however even within the two possessions the place they ended with Tatum isos, it was after some ball and participant motion. Tatum ended up with a really favorable matchup in each cases. When the Celtics are working Horns, getting Tatum a mismatch is often the choice of final resort, as a substitute of the one choice like a few of their different late-game units.

The optionality and malleability of Horns is its power. On this play, KP replaces Jaylen on the nail, and White hits him within the excessive publish. JT then units a again display, and as a substitute of reducing like JB did within the clips above, it’s White that does for a (comparatively) simple two.

The Celtics run the identical motion out of Horns right here, however as a substitute of discovering White, Tatum and KP move right into a decide and roll that will get Tatum downhill for a layup.

There’s simply so many issues you are able to do out of Horns even when the motion is similar. It permits the blokes to move naturally out and in of the offense, and isolates defenders on the Celtics’ finest gamers as a result of pure spacing.

You may as well run off-ball stuff for the nook spacers, just like the Cs do right here (though this isn’t Horns since Tatum begins on the baseline, however it’s very comparable given the place he cuts to):

Jaylen is very lethal lifting from the corners and attacking with a head of steam. It’s an motion the Celtics often use to get him concerned within the offense.

The pure spacing of Horns ought to restrict turnovers and exhausting assist from defenders, and the range retains the protection guessing by giving the Celtics a number of assault factors on a single possession.

In the end although, I don’t assume Horns is the one reply for the Celtics’ late recreation offense, however it’s considered one of them. What’s vital isn’t that they run Horns particularly; it’s that they run one thing, and do it shortly. We’ve seen the offense get slowed down and stagnant too many instances for Mazzulla to not repair it, and I count on he’ll. Bear in mind, Joe, it’s all within the hips.

Non-basketball Stuff of the Week: the previous foes loom within the NBA Playoffs

I can’t consider this season is mainly over. With the 1-seed within the East locked up and homecourt within the Finals arriving shortly, the Celtics’ common season is over. One other yr within the books and one other playoffs on the horizon. And once I take a look at that horizon, I preserve seeing the identical rattling faces: Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Hey, NBA, can we play somebody completely different for as soon as? Whereas I do assume its enjoyable to engender rivalries, the Celtics have already conquered the Sixers. It’s over, Jayson Tatum made certain of it final season. Enjoying the Bucks and watching Giannis do his finest Mike Alstott impression additionally isn’t my thought of a enjoyable collection. And the Warmth, properly, I by no means need to see the Warmth once more, ever. So, NBA Gods, should you’re on the market, give us the Bulls, Magic, and Knicks, simply this as soon as.