The Blue Jays’ offseason was outlined by who they didn’t signal moderately than who they did signal, as they got here up quick of their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.
Main league signings
2024 spending: $41MTotal spending: $70.5M
Choice selections
Trades and claims
Notable minor league signings
Extensions
Notable losses
Dec. 8, 2023 can be remembered as one of the uncommon days in Blue Jays historical past, as stories from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodger Nation and MLB Community’s Jon Morosi indicated that Ohtani had both signed with the Jays, or was on a flight to Toronto to make the deal official. It led to a couple fevered hours of hypothesis across the baseball world earlier than a scarcity of affirmation on these early stories finally acted as a actuality test, with Morosi retracting his earlier message on X. The subsequent day, Ohtani formally introduced on his personal Instagram web page that he had signed with the Dodgers, thus ending the Blue Jays’ probabilities as soon as and for all.
Subsequent stories indicated that the Jays made a comparable supply to the ten years and (closely deferred) $700M Ohtani obtained from Los Angeles. Even when the Dodgers would possibly’ve been Ohtani’s first alternative if all else was equal, it seems as if the Blue Jays and presumably the Giants had been seen as legitimately viable various locations if contract talks with L.A. didn’t go easily.
It’s attainable that Toronto followers would possibly really feel a bit of higher about not touchdown Ohtani now than they did every week in the past, earlier than information broke of the controversial and presumably explosive allegations involving Ohtani’s ex-interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, an unlawful playing operation and funds allegedly taken from Ohtani’s private financial institution accounts to cowl Mizuhara’s money owed. Nevertheless, dropping Ohtani was quickly adopted up by Los Angeles signing one other prime Jays goal in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, even when Toronto wasn’t reportedly one of many true finalists for Yamamoto’s companies — and positively to not the extent of the Dodgers’ huge 12-year, $325M within the Japanese ace.
The one-two punch of lacking out on Ohtani and Yamamoto solely elevated the discord that has existed inside the fanbase by means of a lot of the 2023 season, and reached a fever pitch when sloppy baserunning, a continued lack of hitting, and an notorious pitching change mixed to rapidly sweep Toronto out of its wild-card sequence matchup with the Twins. Jays GM Ross Atkins isn’t going to make an ill-advised splashy transfer only for the sake of constructive headlines, but simply from a baseball perspective, questions should requested about whether or not the Toronto roster is best now than it was on the finish of final season.
As has been the Blue Jays’ behavior over the previous few offseasons, the membership was linked to a variety of accessible gamers. Past Ohtani and Yamamoto, a number of stories recommended the Jays had some extent of curiosity within the likes of free brokers Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, J.D. Martinez, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Rhys Hoskins, Gio Urshela, Michael A. Taylor, Amed Rosario, Domingo German and their very own incumbent free agent in Matt Chapman. On the commerce entrance, the Blue Jays reportedly regarded into offers involving such gamers as Juan Soto, Eugenio Suarez, Isaac Paredes, Dylan Carlson, Jonathan India and Jake Cronenworth, with the primary two of these names really altering groups in different offers.
The slow-moving nature of the free agent market implies that the Blue Jays most likely didn’t actually miss out on many alternatives whereas focusing totally on Ohtani for the offseason’s first 5 weeks. Hindsight being 20-20, it may be argued that the Jays ought to’ve or may’ve pushed extra to amass Soto than Ohtani, however there’s no assure that the Jays had been keen to match or exceed the pitching-centric commerce package deal the Yankees wanted to pry Soto away from the Padres. As a lot because the followers had been begging for a giant strike, cleansing out an already skinny farm system to land Soto won’t have been possible for the Jays in the long term.
Kevin Kiermaier was a free agent for the second consecutive winter however once more ended up signing a one-year cope with Toronto, returning for a $10.5M wage and a increase on his earlier $9M deal. Heading into the offseason, the standard knowledge was that the Blue Jays would possibly let Kiermaier stroll and set up Daulton Varsho in middle area, thus permitting for the Jays so as to add an even bigger bat into Varsho’s previous left area spot. Nevertheless, the Jays will as an alternative run it again with the outfield of Varsho, Kiermaier and George Springer, hoping for a repeat of the group’s glorious protection and general good well being, and a notable enchancment on the plate from at the very least Varsho and Springer. (And if Kiermaier can prime his strong 2023 slash line of .265/.322/.419 in 408 plate appearances, all the higher.)
As for re-signing Chapman, Toronto monitored his market and made a late two-year supply earlier than the third baseman signing with the Giants. Chapman’s moderately unusually lengthy stint in free company most likely created this Eleventh-hour chance of a reunion, because it in any other case appeared just like the Blue Jays considerably moved on from Chapman once they signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15M contract.
The value tag raised eyebrows, as Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been nicely under common (81 wRC+) over his six MLB seasons and 2415 profession PA. A Gold Glove winner because the Rangers’ third baseman in 2020, IKF’s protection has usually graded as common to excellent at a number of positions, even when he naturally received’t match Chapman’s elite glovework.
Having Kiner-Falefa as a semi-everyday participant might be not a really perfect transfer for an already inconsistent lineup, however the Blue Jays’ moderately fluid second base/third base/backup infield assortment of IKF, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement may see all 4 gamers mixing and matching between the 2 positions. Kiner-Falefa and Clement may also again up Bo Bichette at shortstop, and the out-of-options Clement carried out nicely sufficient in spring coaching that the Jays felt snug sufficient to commerce Santiago Espinal to the injury-riddled Reds final week.
In fact, Justin Turner additionally figures to get a while on the sizzling nook, even when Turner was signed to primarily fill Brandon Belt’s function as a part-time first baseman and DH. Turner has been on the Jays’ radar for years as a free agent goal, and the 2 sides lastly got here collectively on a one-year deal value $13M. At the same time as he enters his age-39 season, Turner has remained a persistently productive hitter, together with 23 homers and a .276/.345/.455 slash line over 626 PA for the Crimson Sox in 2023.
Turner is anticipated to play fairly near each day at both third, first, or DH, whereas Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will naturally even be a lineup staple as the primary baseman or designated hitter. When a right-hander is on the mound, spring non-roster invite Daniel Vogelbach figures to get a while within the DH spot, as his minor league contract has now been chosen to the Opening Day roster. Vogelbach doesn’t have a lot utility as a DH-only participant who can’t hit left-handed pitching, although his lefty bat does deliver some steadiness to a lineup and bench combine that continues to be tilted to the proper facet. Re-signing Kiermaier introduced at the very least one left-handed hitter again into the fold, however Kiermaier, Vogelbach, Biggio and Varsho (none of whom are precisely premium bats) symbolize the present allotment of lefty swingers on the projected roster.
Joey Votto’s attainable inclusion may change this image by way of upside if not numbers, as if Votto’s minors deal is chosen to the lively roster, he would absolutely simply substitute Vogelbach. It could be a storybook ending if Votto may revive his profession for at the very least yet another huge season along with his hometown workforce, however whereas the 17-year veteran has been very up entrance about his confidence in himself, Votto can also be sensible concerning the challenges he’ll face in getting again to something near his previous kind after two injury-plagued seasons. Votto will want time to ramp up within the minors, and he’ll additionally first should get well from an ankle damage suffered after he homered in his lone spring coaching plate look in a Blue Jays uniform.
Between Turner, Vogelbach and rolling the cube on Votto, the Jays apparently felt okay in shifting on from Belt, as there have been no public indications that Toronto had curiosity in re-signing arguably its finest hitter from the 2023 season. Alejandro Kirk additionally figures to get some DH at-bats over the course of the season, although he’ll be strictly a catcher within the early going whereas Danny Jansen recovered from a minor wrist fracture. Offseason waiver declare Brian Serven will now break camp as Kirk’s backup catcher whereas Jansen heals.
Turning to the pitching employees, the Blue Jays’ priciest signing of the winter wasn’t Ohtani or Yamamoto, however moderately one other identify from Japan….through Cuba. Yariel Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 464 1/3 innings and 6 seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional earlier than then delivering a 3.03 ERA in 175 1/3 frames for Nippon Skilled Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons from 2020-22. Rodriguez sat out the 2023 season whereas making an attempt to rearrange his transfer to MLB, so the yr’s layoff is one other X-factor on prime of the standard questions on how a participant’s expertise will translate from worldwide baseball to the Present.
A number of groups scouted and thought of Rodriguez this winter, with the Blue Jays among the many group who favored him as a beginning pitcher moderately than as a reliever. With Bowden Francis profitable the fifth starter’s job popping out of spring coaching, it seems as if Rodriguez will start the season in Triple-A, appearing as rotation depth and persevering with to acclimate to his new league. Even with a five-year contract and at the very least a $32M funding in Rodriguez, the Blue Jays are keen to be affected person in getting Rodriguez absolutely prepared for the bigs earlier than deploying him as a starter, reliever or swingman.
Whereas the Jays signed Rodriguez and kicked the tires on another free agent arms, Toronto is basically standing pat with its identical pitching employees from 2023. This isn’t a foul transfer contemplating how the rotation and bullpen had been each strengths final season, however there may be some added danger because the odds are in opposition to one other yr of largely good pitcher well being. Already some cracks have proven since Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will begin the yr on the 15-day injured record, and Kevin Gausman had a bout of shoulder fatigue earlier in camp however now appears on tempo to be a part of the Opening Day roster.
Alek Manoah stays the most important uncertainty on the roster, as Manoah’s spring work consisted of 1 tough outing (4 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings) earlier than being sidelined with shoulder soreness. Within the wake of Manoah’s disastrous 2023 season, the Blue Jays merely don’t know what to anticipate from Manoah going ahead, making it much more necessary that Francis, Rodriguez, Mitch White, and maybe finally prime prospect Ricky Tiedemann can work as depth starter or fifth starter choices. This, in flip, places extra stress on Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi to remain wholesome and efficient so another leaks don’t spring within the rotation.
Including clear-cut starters and even lower-level pitchers on cheap assured contracts or minor league offers would possibly’ve been tough for the Blue Jays this winter, as such pitchers most likely most popular to affix groups with clearer potential rotation or bullpen openings. In a nutshell, already having a core in place would possibly’ve restricted what Toronto was keen or capable of do with each its pitching employees and maybe the roster as a complete.
Breaking the financial institution for Ohtani or Yamamoto in a particular circumstance was one factor, however the Jays had been usually conservative in boosting the payroll. After a $214.5M payroll and a $246M luxury-tax quantity in 2023 (placing them over the tax line for the primary time ever), the Blue Jays are estimated by RosterResource for a $226M payroll and a $248.7M luxury-tax determine heading into Opening Day. Whereas they may not have spent a lot this winter, this does go away the Blue Jays with some flexibility so as to add cash on the commerce deadline once they have a greater sense of their speedy wants. It isn’t identified whether or not or not the second tax penalty tier of $257M represents any form of inside spending restrict, however given how this workforce has been so aggressive in recent times, it will be stunning if the entrance workplace all of the sudden held again if a key improve was obtainable.
If the Blue Jays had been in the end content material to simply tinker with their roster, nonetheless, it places much more stress on their core group to step up after a curiously lackluster 2023 season. Atkins mentioned in early January that, “We really feel like final yr was only a blip by way of run-scoring.” But whereas any of Springer, Varsho, Guerrero or Kirk may rebound, relying on all of them to bounce again is probably a bit of too optimistic since there was no apparent reply as to why the quartet had been all so inconsistent final yr.
Between this group, Kiner-Falefa’s lack of offense, and the uncertainty inside the second base and backup infield combine, it isn’t a stretch to say that Bichette and Turner are the membership’s solely actual dependable bats heading into the yr. Maybe some teaching adjustments would possibly do the trick, as bench coach Don Mattingly has a brand new title of “offensive coordinator” and Matt Hague has joined the employees as an assistant hitting coach.
Even with back-to-back playoff disappointments within the final two seasons, the Jays nonetheless suppose their core group is able to greater and higher issues. And not using a ton of overt upgrades coming this winter, nonetheless, the Blue Jays will face a problem in simply getting again to the playoffs, not to mention making some postseason noise.