The Best Fits For Free Agent Righty Michael Lorenzen

In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a bunch of high-profile free brokers nonetheless obtainable this offseason. They’re all represented by the identical company. A couple of individuals have pointed this out. There have been 4 of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new cope with the Cubs, there at the moment are three. (Though J.D. Martinez nonetheless might be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some delicate consideration across the baseball world.

A lot focus has been positioned on the “Boras 4” — and never only for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the truth that the free agent market nonetheless has a handful of excellent, high quality huge leaguers who will help groups. None rejected a qualifying supply. None are on the lookout for nine-figure offers. None would require a group to commit cash into the 2028 season or past.

Arguably most outstanding among the many remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is contemporary off a career-high 153 innings in what was solely his second full season as a starter after a six-year run within the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, however he began 25 video games final yr (plus 4 aid appearances) and made the All-Star group after a powerful first half of the season with the Tigers. A part of his choice to the Midsummer Basic was by default — each group wants an All-Star consultant, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — however that shouldn’t be used to downplay the power of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Sport, Lorenzen was sporting a strong however unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d began 15 video games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was offering tremendous worth. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning within the All-Star Sport, after which got here roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his finest stretch of the season. The fitting-hander completed his first half with 5 shutout frames and started the second half with one other 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the point the Phillies traded for him within the run-up to the annual commerce deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and three.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most followers and readers are conversant in Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs by way of eight glorious innings in his group debut earlier than blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter throughout his first look pitching in entrance of Philly followers at Residents Financial institution Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way in which to three.23. From July 6 by way of Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 Okay/BB ratio.

And, simply as most readers had been probably already conscious of these heights, the next lows for Lorenzen have additionally been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that very same Nationals offense, lasting simply 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch the place he was torched for 27 runs over his subsequent 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies had been at all times prone to transfer Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his expertise within the position and the power of the highest of their workers, however they took that step a number of weeks early.

Lorenzen completed out the yr with 4 shutout innings of aid throughout three appearances, however that did little to restore the injury of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He completed the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout fee, 7.5% stroll fee, 41% grounder fee and 1.18 HR/9 — strong manufacturing for a fourth starter however nowhere close to as engaging as his numbers regarded with simply six weeks to go within the season.

It’s value questioning the extent to which Lorenzen merely wore down. He pitched solely 110 1/3 innings the yr prior between the massive leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch greater than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping as much as greater than 150 frames on the yr meant pushing his physique to ranges it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season again in 2015 — his rookie MLB marketing campaign and remaining season as a starter earlier than the Reds moved him to aid.

Regardless of the shaky end, Lorenzen wound up with strong numbers on the season for a second straight yr. He’s but to make a full slate of 30+ begins in a season, however it’s not unreasonable to suppose he may achieve this in 2024-25 after constructing as much as 153 innings in 2023. And courting again to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout fee, 8.8% stroll fee and 44.5% ground-ball fee. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a pleasant 32.6% clip and logged a ten.2% swinging-strike fee that’s not far under the 11.1% MLB common.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, however there are many huge league groups which might be getting ready to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm within the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into a kind of spots is smart for various golf equipment, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the financial institution. He’s signed one-year offers for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the previous two seasons. A comparatively modest two-year deal or perhaps a one-year deal at a bump over final yr’s wage doesn’t appear unreasonable.

For groups in search of rotation assist however unwilling/unable to spend on the vital ranges to signal Snell or Montgomery, a short-term cope with Lorenzen may make sense. That’s not true of each group, nevertheless. Let’s take a run by way of the league and search for some potential matches.

Groups with typically full rotations

Every of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation that includes 5 veterans and/or younger starters who’re locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas Metropolis and Detroit is likely to be stretches to land on this group, however for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would imply pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM wage to the bullpen or reducing him unfastened. Primarily based on 2023 performances, they’d be higher for it, however that’s some huge cash for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, in the meantime, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to go away that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and some other younger arms to attempt to seize.

High luxurious payors who’d successfully owe double

Every of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxurious tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% fee for any extra free agent signings. Even including Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would imply taking up $9.9MM of taxes and put the whole value of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets lately noticed Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder damage, however shelling out practically $19MM for one yr of Lorenzen doesn’t appear to be a believable final result.

Rebuilding/non-competitive groups

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at numerous phases of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three may have been a match for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, however none appear probably now. The A’s signed Alex Wooden and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them 4 set starters and a deep inventory of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen along with buying Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. In addition they didn’t commerce Dylan Stop. Lorenzen is likely to be an improve, however it looks like they’ve added what they’re going so as to add. The Nationals haven’t performed something to bolster a sub-par rotation past signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, however GM Mike Rizzo has successfully declared his group out of the marketplace for extra huge league arms.

I’d argue that one other non-competitive membership, the Rockies, ought to completely be eager about signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of high quality innings amongst their group of incumbents. However Colorado has proven minimal curiosity in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Subject is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxurious tax points

Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them round $3MM shy of the bottom luxurious tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a significant penalty for signing Lorenzen — probably only a couple million {dollars} or so — however they’ve 4 locked-in starters and a deep assortment of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with high prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not an incredible match.
Rangers: Regardless of final yr’s World Sequence win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty relating to the group’s tv broadcast outlook. The Rangers may clearly use one other arm with every of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured record. The group appears content material to journey with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Grey, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford whereas ready on that veteran trio to return, although. GM Chris Younger stated earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any additional additions of word.
Rays: The Rays needs to be purchasing on this tier for rotation assist, provided that they’re counting on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a transformed reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of proficient however unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, as soon as the sport’s high pitching prospect, might be again from 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure however on an innings restrict. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgical procedure) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgical procedure) might be again in some unspecified time in the future in 2024 however maybe not till the season’s second half. Attending to that time might be a problem with the Rays’ present group, however Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (in some way) a franchise file as it’s. There’s room to signal Lorenzen for 2 years on a backloaded deal (significantly if the Rays finally commerce Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM wage), however their present monetary outlay makes them a attain — even when there’s a transparent want within the rotation.
Twins: The Twins have proven curiosity in Lorenzen however, just like the Rangers, have scaled again their spending amid TV income issues. After buying Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey instructed he’s probably completed including to the massive league roster. The Twins have a good beginning combine with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it’s. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, however an addition apparently isn’t considered as an crucial as long as the present group stays wholesome in camp.

Believable matches

Angels: Maybe their perspective towards Lorenzen is “been there, performed that,” however the Halos have loads of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, however he has minor league choices remaining. Jose Suarez is an alternative choice, however he’s additionally in want of a rebound. If proprietor Arte Moreno needs to proceed his resistance to long-term offers for pitchers, the Angels may deliver Lorenzen again with out coming near their franchise-record for payroll or to the posh tax threshold.
Brewers: Gone are the times of the Brewers’ practically unequalled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is again to guide a workers that additionally encompasses a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Corridor — acquired within the shock late-offseason commerce of Corbin Burnes — spherical issues out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t removed from the massive leagues himself. However the Brewers lack some certainty within the rotation and undertaking for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their requirements.
D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to hitch Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt within the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they’ve some depth for the fifth slot, however none of it’s confirmed. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise file by about $11MM, but when there’s room for yet another addition, Lorenzen would solidify the ultimate rotation spot on a win-now membership that’s seeking to observe up on final yr’s shock World Sequence bid.
Giants: The Giants’ rotation regarded like a large number even earlier than damage scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly nonetheless within the combine to signal Blake Snell, so there’s clearly cash left to spend. Proper now, they’ll observe ace Logan Webb with high prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are wholesome. (Winn lately resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand damage.) Frankly, they might stand so as to add one in all Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiousness from O’s followers after an in any other case silent offseason on the beginning pitching entrance, however there’s now concern elsewhere within the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is attempting to rehab a UCL pressure in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the primary pitcher to keep away from going below the knife after a UCL damage, however the overwhelming majority of such damage scares finish in surgical procedure. In the meantime, John Means is delayed and prone to open the season on the injured record on account of his personal elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, however the Orioles are a lot deeper in high-end place participant prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has simply $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They need to completely be on the lookout for an addition of some kind, and so they reportedly confirmed curiosity in Lorenzen earlier than buying Burnes.
Padres: One other group that’s reportedly proven curiosity in Lorenzen, the Padres have reduce payroll considerably and at the moment are greater than $20MM from the posh threshold and practically $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They solely have two clear-cut, confirmed starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired within the Juan Soto commerce, will fill the third spot within the rotation after a powerful exhibiting with the Yankees in 2023, however he’s by no means began greater than 9 video games in an enormous league season. The opposite two spots are solely up for grabs amongst a bunch of largely untested arms. There won’t be a clearer on-paper match, though…
Pirates: …if there may be one, it is likely to be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with lately prolonged Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales within the high spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgical procedure earlier this offseason. Final yr’s No. 1 decide, Paul Skenes, ought to rapidly ascend to the massive leagues however that most likely gained’t occur till this summer time. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, however both lack MLB success or are (within the case of Falter and Contreras) wish to put an unsightly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been speaking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and different starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his need to additional add to the rotation.
Crimson Sox: To not be outdone of their want for rotation assist amid a shaky assortment of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he indicators elsewhere or they deem the worth too excessive, Lorenzen may simply match into the price range of a group that’s practically $60MM from its franchise file and never near the posh tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, however the mixture of Nick Pivetta (who misplaced his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox want high quality innings, however possession clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been adopted up with payroll discount and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

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If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would be part of the Padres, Pirates, Crimson Sox, Giants and Orioles because the clearest matches for a strong, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Funds very probably are a difficulty for Tampa Bay, nevertheless, however any of these 5 different golf equipment — arguably in that order — ought to be capable of discover room to lift their rotation’s flooring by plugging Lorenzen in at a value that gained’t break the financial institution.