12:02
: Good morning from Tempe! Thanks for testing all of our Prospect Week work for the location, together with this chat.
12:02
: Let’s get proper into it.
12:03
: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than a number of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to indicate to stand up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?
12:06
: I like Emerson quite a bit, ideally he performs a little bit higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Lengthy-term dev undertaking, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy
12:06
: Do the Mets have a high farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects throughout the commerce deadline final 12 months?
12:06
: Extra like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox
12:07
: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man
12:07
: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. Extra a forty five kind
12:08
: Why is Hollday (70) graded larger than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you are taking over the subsequent decade, from that group?
12:08
: Higher perceived likelihood to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Robust to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.
12:08
: What’s holding again JDP from being a high 100 prospect? Simply must see a bit extra energy in recreation?
12:09
: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Ok%, in a nook OF spot I need you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has thus far, drive my hand. Fairly mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless an excellent likelihood he pops, simply hasn’t but.
12:10
: Which prospects presently ranked beneath 75 have the most effective likelihood to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?
12:10
: The youngsters in that vary
12:10
: Do chats rely as feedback? No actual query, I recognize what you do. Hopefully you’ll be able to stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.
12:10
: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe
12:10
: Hello Eric, thanks for all the good work. After a robust 12 months on the plate, why do you suppose Connor Norby will not be a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?
12:11
: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Both he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, in all probability.
12:11
: How far was Jose Fleury out of your choose to click on subsequent 12 months ?
12:14
: He’s tremendous bizarre. This can be a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually wonderful changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t suppose it’ll work in a approach that he’ll ever be on the High 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he ought to be a extremely misleading lengthy reliever
12:14
: Perhaps like Yusmeiro Petit kind?
12:14
: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your record? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t suppose he’s top15 in SD’s system
12:15
: Jagger can be on the One other 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout a complete begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ price him a number of time. Wants to indicate he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch
12:15
: I like to consider your scores for FV as purposeful regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you choose is the almost definitely. Is there a approach that you could possibly add SD in your evalus as a approach of measuring flooring and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is flooring and subsequently I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?
12:17
: One of many former prospect writers on the web site tried to do a model of this and folks felt it was tremendous complicated to have flooring/seemingly/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is a little bit simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name
12:18
: noticed an attention-grabbing quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. nearly each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for useless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting
12:20
: Swing modified final 12 months, massive time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually appreciated him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. May catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t suppose he’s out of the blue a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Ok’s, however may have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.
12:20
: May groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their expertise with the pitching lab?
12:20
: I dunno if “worth much less” is precisely proper however “undertaking much less” in all probability could be.
12:20
: did you neglect Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?
12:22
: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is beneath MLB common, seems like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line people
12:22
: Eric, actually beloved the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.
12:22
: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through every year, groups lists, draft ranks, and many others. gracias
12:23
: How a lot of a unfavorable impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant improvement? What proportion of groups would select to have a short-season workforce, if allowed?
12:25
: I feel it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed via brief season find yourself there. It offers fewer gamers alternative to develop however possibly doesn’t harm any particular person’s dev? I feel the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Proportion sensible…
12:26
: lol going through a workforce guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for an additional affiliate at this level? jeepers
12:26
: in all probability like half the groups? There are definnitely folks in baseball who nonetheless suppose there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as attainable to varsity baseball. I wager we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA
12:27
: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (high 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run drawback?
12:27
: Sufficient that it limits his function, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him unhealthy.
12:27
: Do a particular org’s particular flaws ever influence your evaluation of a person prospect? I take a look at studies of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to achieve his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.
12:28
: Not likely. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting when you do it that approach. It might really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both increase or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I feel most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are good sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.
12:28
: If not for the notion that he was a robust decide to attend faculty, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the blokes taken forward of him.
12:30
: I in all probability had hello ma little too excessive. He acquired $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s in all probability extra early/mid second spherical in a traditional draft, was late 2 in a loaded one
12:30
: Eric and Tess, Nice work once more on Prospect Week! I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I really like getting a range of opinions. I really feel such as you guys are inclined to price youthful worldwide signees larger than others whereas rating latest MLB draftees a little bit decrease. I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your High 100. Thx!
12:32
: All three have been picks to click on, we like them quite a bit. Head put actually robust contact information on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m a little bit suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the best way his palms loop. Let’s see how he does towards massive velo. Wilken, you understand the report. I need 1B/3B varieties to have nearer proximity to the massive league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The children’ ceilings are a lot larger than Wilken-types (Walcott, and many others) that although they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to risk that they’re unicorn gamers forward of fellows like Wilken except they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA
12:32
: You’re the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see retaining him from being a high 100 kind? Lack of a defensive dwelling? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?
12:34
: A variety of these questions are simply going to be answered with the subsequent piece. I don’t imagine in his hit instrument as a lot because the others, I suppose. Additionally trying like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s high-quality however not *that* good.
12:34
: Do you suppose Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?
12:35
: I don’t
12:35
: Would Drew Thorpe be a strong comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you are feeling he might be elite with a velo bump?
12:36
: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. One other man whose identify is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, may use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout choose as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.
12:36
: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?
12:36
: Nearer to fiftieth general
12:37
: Way back, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the largest soar for a minor leaguer to make. Agree?
12:37
: Triple-A to massive leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s in all probability Excessive-A to Double-A, sure.
12:37
: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this 12 months? Clearly the ability’s there and he’s acquired time, however the Ok price is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early studies are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?
12:38
: Fairly bleak, imo. 64% contact price is beneath any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Nonetheless has big juice, although.
12:38
: What’s your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a problem of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?
12:39
: Fastball remains to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless suppose Jack can be a good massive leaguer however in all probability an RP at this level. That is his 40-man eval 12 months so we’d see TEX make a transfer in that regard
12:39
: Love and recognize all of the content material. Simply out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You could have Caminero as a RFer although he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you could have Shaw as 2B although he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.
12:40
: Completely our projection, once I suppose it’s the proper name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I alter it
12:40
: What occurred to the Simply Missed article?
12:40
: It’s extra a “100 extra names to know” article in order you’ll be able to think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.
12:40
: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to indicate to be able to be within the high 100 a 12 months from now?
12:41
: One other man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with big current uncooked, suppose the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him modify to fastballs round his palms.
12:41
: Can science clarify why a number of projection programs (ZiPS and Steamer) suppose Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I might be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I feel Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final 12 months.
12:43
: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you’ll be able to really do it totally) will provide you with approach higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast kind stuff may aid you mannequin protection when you had entry to that information.
12:43
: When Spencer Jones was as previous as Jasson Dominguez is true now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Really feel like there’s a number of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson after they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say
12:44
: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in a brilliant tight edit proper on high of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there may be. Doesn’t imply I feel he’s unhealthy, simply suppose the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so massive that he wanted to be elevated
12:45
: Age variations and variations in projection usually go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ will not be.
12:45
: Is it simply me, or do you typically confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?
12:45
: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past take a look at in highschool and my instructor informed me my priorities have been effed
12:45
: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the robust Orioles system. Do you suppose he might be an on a regular basis man by 12 months’s finish?
12:46
: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. Could be out-talented by the others. Nonetheless an excellent participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Suppose J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.
12:47
: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you utilize plate self-discipline and batted ball information to paint your scouting? 2. The place are you getting that information from? I can solely discover it publicly obtainable on the AAA stage.
12:49
: We’re sourcing milb-wide information from workforce contacts. I’m taking a look at chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase information is illuminating greater than in-person seems to be, batted ball/contact stuff serves to substantiate the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve ignored.
12:49
: Seen Solometo will not be on high 100. What do you could see from him to crack record sooner or later?
12:51
: Two or three extra ticks. I feel he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many influence starters who solely sit 91-92.
12:51
: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?
12:51
: Appeared so out of whack when he was wholesome final 12 months that there’s no approach he hits except his sing adjustments.
12:52
: Juan Brito was on final 12 months’s model of the Picks to Click on and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas displaying the identical mixture of contact, endurance, and a little bit pop that appeared to catch your eye final 12 months. Any perception as to why he missed this 12 months’s record? Has the scouting report backed up, or have been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his 12 months was extra like treading water?
12:52
: Protection is horrible
12:52
: How troublesome is it to vary your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it influence your command/management?
12:54
: In all probability simpler mentioned than accomplished and is dependent upon the particular person. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the best way their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and adjustments in stride course which have influence up the physique in such a approach that alters arm and strategy angle. Discovering one thing the athlete can do constantly so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a vital piece of it.
12:54
: Do you could have any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to suppose he might be a serious league starter quickly.
12:54
: Fairly typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s price stats from 2023 recommend he ought to be throwing it extra, and we must always all be trying to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this 12 months. They’ve two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.
12:55
: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?
12:55
: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…plenty of guys, you simply must do different stuff like throw actually arduous.
12:56
: Is Caba the most effective defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he essentially the most proficient defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?
12:56
: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis
12:56
: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Lengthy for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball based on Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. However based on stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the very best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thanks for the suggestions!
12:57
: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion
12:57
: Is there any specific improvement subject with latest Pittsburgh graduates you’ll be able to level to relating to their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant facet, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?
12:57
: That’s a type of backfields that I’m solely on a couple of times a 12 months, and it’s powerful for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater thought of what they’re doing with dev.
12:58
: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season? Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?
12:58
: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final 12 months.
12:58
: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was sort of the outline of him going into the draft and as a result of damage he was barely in a position to play within the minors, was curious if there was something extra to may be aware about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?
12:59
: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish dimension/energy for an adolescent if you stand proper subsequent to him, swing remains to be work in progress, loopy energy/velocity combo.
12:59
: I used to be stunned to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on record. What about him fails to impress you?
1:02
: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Simply not sufficient house on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and can be on the workforce record. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final 12 months, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), arduous mid-80s slider. Good prospect
1:02
: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years high 100, are you able to give me your two greatest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?
1:02
: nailed it with Baumeister i believe
1:03
: you guys are good at this and mainly guessing the names on this subsequent piece
1:03
: A lot of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final 12 months. What separates them a lot in your eval?
1:04
: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have almost as a lot bodily expertise. Heston regarded cumbersome and robust throughout ’22 AFL, regarded tremendous lower and explosive in 2023, I assumed he hit a special gear.
1:04
: As a Phillies fan, how nervous ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?
1:05
: A bit bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the best way it strikes in a reasonably profound approach. I feel it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.
1:05
: the dodgers appear to have actually accomplished nicely with their most up-to-date DSL workforce. Who do you want greatest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?
1:05
: nicely one among them was on the highest 100 and one was a choose to click on
1:05
: Stunned to not see Celesten within the “that is what they seem like” part of the picks to click on. Is that merely a results of him simply not entering into video games final 12 months?
1:06
: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and regarded good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he seems to be kind, we nonetheless don’t really *know* something concerning the hit instrument with zero professional information and due to how restricted in-person seems to be have been in 2023
1:06
: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how usually do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Simply going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.
1:06
: by no means ever
1:08
: there are guys who i haven’t seen in particular person however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie examine and have information to formulate my very own opinion
1:08
: Ideas on the hitter with the most effective identify within the minors? He crushed it final 12 months with Ok enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.
1:08
: you nailed it, simply suppose the efficiency is a little bit shy of high 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.
1:08
: How massive of swing when it comes to worth is Austin Wells defensive place?
1:10
: huge. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final 12 months.
1:10
: How would you could have graded Brandon Belt’s energy developing? Clearly the entire bundle, with wonderful on-base, above common protection, and playable hit instrument was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for enormous energy
1:11
: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…
1:11
: I used to be just a few months shy of turning 22
1:12
: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford? Most individuals have him ranked however you didn’t.
Total, do you see the Phillies as having a company that’s trending in the proper course?
1:13
: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils record. Simply not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.
1:13
: Mets prospects are brief (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Only a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: top particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/flooring/ceiling that shorter prospects are inclined to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout top)
1:14
: good catch. I do suppose lever size is a trait groups care about and may need to do with stability of the hit instrument. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued as a result of lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and many others.
1:14
: Was a little bit stunned to see Luis Morales soar into the High 100 so early. Do you suppose he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?
1:14
: Positively not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm velocity, purely a ceiling-driven embody.
1:15
: What’s essentially the most shocking {industry} suggestions you acquired in your high 101 this season?
1:15
: had too few inside jokes
1:15
: Has there ever been a disparity between your record and the ZIPs record that has induced you to return and reevaluate a prospect?
1:17
: Sure, Danny sends me zips just a few days forward so i can double test some guys. This 12 months it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt comfy transferring on from rapidly from a high 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their workforce record
1:17
: Interested by Termarr’s path, what do you could see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?
1:17
: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and raise, may have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit instrument. Gonna Ok a ton.
1:17
: Who’s the subsequent unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?
1:18
: Take your choose of the DSL arms on their record, Arias, and many others.
1:18
: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that 12 months to begin making his approach onto prospect lists. .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection seems to be extra like a certainty than a risk.
1:18
: Def a workforce record man already. High 100? IDK, is Myles Straw figuring out gangbusters?
1:18
: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?
1:19
: Could be a DH
1:19
: To what proportion of those questions may you simply reply “Learn the article, dingus”?
1:19
: The share has lowered since we began chatting
1:19
: actually this 12 months it’s in all probability solely like 10%
1:19
: Of the blokes on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s almost definitely to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?
1:20
: I received’t rely Chourio, both (but it surely’s in all probability him)…
1:21
: saying Colt Keith can also be kinda dishonest…
1:21
: How about Jairo Iriarte?
1:21
: That is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP function, I discover it more and more troublesome to gauge worth. Simply when it comes to the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? If that’s the case, what has it modified?
1:24
: For certain. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth through innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ varieties who work in bulk aid, or who you could get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging workforce scenario. Within the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft horny arms when the worth feels too good to move up, I’m extra on secure performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not
1:24
: nice query btw
1:25
: Have you ever heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser recognized outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. If that’s the case, would love any notes you could have
1:26
: After all, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead night time final 12 months, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.
1:26
: Along with all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth choose in a draft that had 5 “first general” varieties in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA appropriately, they will’t choose high 10 subsequent 12 months no matter how unhealthy they’re. Even when I follow them to Vegas, is there any hope?
1:28
: Bro, it’s a tragic scenario. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should it’s wish to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the subsequent couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It might be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try and encourage eacother simply because.
1:28
: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove must be in these spots for the bat to play as a median starter?
1:28
: Perhaps not a median starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth greatest man at LF/1B, that’s a extremely good participant) however undoubtedly higher than their options.
1:29
: You’re an enlargement workforce and you may steal all of the Yankees within the high 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?
1:29
: hmmmmmmm BoSox
1:30
: Talking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Ok% was fairly horrid as soon as he acquired to AA. What number of prospects Ok that a lot, that determine it out at that stage? Steep hill to climb, no?
1:30
: Sure and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me
1:30
: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Excessive energy potential with weak hit instrument at a premium defensive place. Is that this Joey Gallo at shortstop if the whole lot breaks proper?
1:32
: Javy Baez if the whole lot breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road final result
1:32
: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? folks on the astros subreddit appear to suppose that’s the longer term however based mostly in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that sort of timeline
1:33
: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Tremendous gifted, although. Would anticipate a decrease burn. However hey, George Springer was additionally a proficient mess when he was drafted…
1:33
: so was derek fisher
1:34
: Hello Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this 12 months’s record is shorter as a result of a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as non permanent or do you anticipate the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?
1:34
: Little little bit of each. I feel this can be a down 12 months but additionally suppose the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.
1:35
: Roki Sasaki would rank high 3 if he have been on the record?
1:35
: 2-4 vary, yeah
1:35
: Thanks for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?
1:35
: man that’s soooo powerful. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too
1:36
: What’s your prediction for the subsequent wave in analytics?
1:38
: It’s already underway throughout a number of the league, however: quantifying the best way the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion through graph, assessing flexibility through angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval instrument and to make MLB changes in-game
1:39
: I additionally surprise what a number of years of the mix will yield when it comes to the best way these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.
1:39
: No query, simply wished to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot wonderful content material. I particularly love the Successfully Wild appearances. Thanks for the entire arduous work!
1:39
: gracias, it looks as if a number of people take heed to EW
1:39
: Not a high 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate studies on Ricardo Cabrera. Some had him as a legit plus runner final 12 months on the advanced and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he might have to maneuver to 1B finally. Have you ever gotten any seems to be at him lately?
1:40
: Tremendous tough take a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Positively gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit information is absolutely robust.
1:40
: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?
1:40
: OMG sure, nerd
1:42
: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup regarded fairly good within the fall, too. backend kind
1:42
: Hello Eric, Wyatt Langford’s soar over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous attention-grabbing to me. What did he present in these previous couple of months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Looks like the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day
1:42
: Turning on the ball with energy approach higher than simply about some other high prospect
1:43
: Completely cleansing out velo round his palms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat
1:43
: Can Rodney Inexperienced play CF?
1:44
: That is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Robust profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the ability, although.
1:44
: I ponder your ideas on Welbyn Francisca? You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went nicely, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any likelihood he pops?
1:44
: I don’t actually suppose Chayce McDermott has accomplished sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Nonetheless a MIRP/SIRP for you? Or do you suppose there may be “extra” that would get him a spot within the rotation.
1:45
: of the blokes with aid danger in that 45 FV space he’s the one I feel has the most effective likelihood to iron issues out. he’s so unfastened and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an influence arm of some variety.
1:45
: Are dodgers prospects essentially the most overrated (industry-wide) as a result of perceived developmental benefits within the org?
1:45
: I do suppose the horny orgs get a bump, usually
1:45
: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact price and premium EV final season. However his future hit instrument grade is just a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get unhealthy data on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?
1:46
: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre trying, and i believe the chase will finally influence his hit instrument
1:47
: Did you take into account together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click on for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a particular cause you’ve soured on him for the reason that 2023 draft? Or was he ignored/there simply wasn’t sufficient house to say him in that article?
1:47
: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i assumed, whole incapacity to tug the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to choose a cause that’d be it
1:48
: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? School and HS esp up high…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks as if a banner draft
1:48
: they kicked ass
1:48
: what goes on into the numerous variations, after they occur, between dash velocity (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we establish candidates to outperform run grades?
1:50
: I don’t suppose dash velocity is an effective way to eval velocity. Or somewhat, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time for my part. Dash velocity measures velocity of their quickest one-second window of working. House-to-first instances incorporate acceleration and lengthy velocity, in addition to a measure of the occasion through which velocity makes the largest distinction (out vs protected at 1B).
1:50
: How usually do you get an opportunity to observe Worldwide or Japanese League video games in particular person? Do you could have video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?
1:52
: I’ll go dwelling to PA for per week or two each summer season and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not good, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically completely different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unimaginable instrument
1:52
: Nice work, Eric! In your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the perfect body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis. What’s the preferrred physique dimension for a SP these days? Has it modified in any respect?
1:53
: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering right down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, stability within the decrease physique, unfastened arm motion
1:53
: I feel groups are extra open to brief king pitchers due to strategy angle issues
1:53
: What/Who’re you most trying ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the pretend video games get going?
1:54
: I feel each Central divisions might be a number of enjoyable.
1:54
: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB kind? Or is his offense not ample?
1:54
: (cringes) regarded substandard throughout the board final 12 months, my dude
1:55
: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve turn out to be considerably larger or decrease on over the past a number of years?
1:55
: Flawed nook bats when the ability is a 70 or higher
1:57
: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 warfare via finish of workforce management. is that not a 50?
1:57
: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50
1:58
: I’ve seen a number of feedback lately (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is general rather more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially as a result of all of this newly obtainable information within the minors and faculty. What’s your tackle that? Are you aware anybody who’s tried to investigate this via time to see if we’re figuring out the proper prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?
1:59
: Oh we’re approach higher at this now, each via expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs price evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval through my How’s My Driving piece final week
1:59
: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly
1:59
: The place would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?
1:59
: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy
2:00
: 55 close to Kjerstad
2:00
: What can we anticipate to see from Justin Campbell this 12 months? Thanks in your time.
2:00
: Somebody with CLE informed me he’s good to go however I don’t know how he’ll look
2:00
: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter? Looks like some guys (e.g., Dalton Speeding has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final 12 months at Louisville) have this as a “ability” to a point, but it surely’s in all probability much less repeatable than BB ability?
2:02
: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his palms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his recreation but it surely’s created by a deficiency not a ability.
2:02
: I would like you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for a way Daniel Espino’s profession will prove.
2:02
: Most probably? Brendan McKay’s buddy.
2:02
: I got here dwelling giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was a few of the greatest stuff i’ve ever seen in particular person, ever ever. Shoulders, man.
2:03
: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any cause to vary that impression?
2:03
: RP, imo
2:03
: Washington ought to give him each opp to begin, why not?
2:03
: I used to be a bit stunned to not see Joey Loperfido within the high 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?
2:04
: you could have it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU record final 12 months and can be in an identical spot as a march through workforce lists
2:04
: Whats my ceiling ?
2:04
: slick utility man
2:04
: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce bundle for Stop? I feel if they will get it accomplished with out transferring Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!
2:04
: not for me, bro.
2:04
: Not even shut
2:04
: How is the final article coming at present completely different from the picks to click on article precisely? Feels like at present’s might embody guys who you don’t anticipate to rise, however are simply outdoors the highest 100 in the intervening time? Perhaps contains guys anticipated to graduate as nicely?
2:05
: It’s extra about guys you need to find out about proper now for a story cause. It’s not titled nicely within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂
2:05
: Quick access to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks as if an enormous plus for dwelling right here. How does this influence your strategy of evaluating prospects? Does it will let you get extra and higher seems to be at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you are feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you may solely see on video or 1-2 per 12 months (like those that practice in Florida)?
2:06
: Sure to all, that is my full time job and I’m at just a few hundred video games a 12 months
2:06
: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Noticed him quite a bit all through his novice profession and he at all times comped to a Matt Strahm kind for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing an expert inning but.
2:07
: No one did instructs in FL in addition to TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, unfastened/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…attention-grabbing dev faculty arm
2:08
: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Due to the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please take into account a subscription to the location and thanks for all of your variety phrases.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and presently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Information Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work may also be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
