The Blue Jays signed a lefty-swinging first baseman/designated hitter whose identify begins with a V and an O, but it surely wasn’t Joey Votto. As place gamers report back to camps, the longtime Pink and all-time chief in video games performed by a Canadian-born main leaguer stays a free agent. As an alternative, the Blue Jays added Daniel Vogelbach on a minor league take care of an invite to spring coaching. At his finest, the well-traveled 31-year-old may also help the Blue Jays, however in context, his limitations present one more reminder of the staff’s underwhelming offseason.
Vogelbach’s deal requires him to make $2 million if he’s within the majors, in accordance with the New York Publish’s Jon Heyman. That is truly his second go-round with the Blue Jays, however you’re forgiven for those who want your reminiscence jogged. He spent 10 days with the staff in the course of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, between being bought from the Mariners and misplaced on waivers to the Brewers; inside that span, he performed two video games, going 0-for-4 with a stroll and two strikeouts. After spending all of 2021 with the Brewers, he cut up ’22 between the Pirates and Mets, with an efficient stretch-run stint for the latter, after which spent final 12 months in Queens as nicely.
Regardless of a productive opening month to his 2023 season, Vogelbach hit simply .213/.326/.348 (92 wRC+) by the tip of June, a span that included an eight-day benching for the needs of a psychological break. He was a lot better from July onward, batting .258/.355/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 138 plate appearances, besides, he was an afterthought in September. He made simply 5 begins that month, none within the Mets’ closing 16 video games, with simply three of his 24 plate appearances for September coming in that span. Unsurprisingly, he was nontendered in November.
Even in a down season, Vogelbach once more confirmed a wonderful batting eye, chasing simply 24.1% of pitches outdoors the strike zone and strolling 13.2% of the time; that stated, his strikeout fee crept to 25.4%, his highest since 2019. He didn’t get sufficient taking part in time to qualify for Statcast’s percentile cutoffs, however his 91.7 mph common exit velo and 50% hard-hit fee would have landed on the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.
Vogelbach is a participant with apparent limitations. He didn’t play a single recreation within the area throughout his Mets tenure, had simply 5 for the Pirates earlier than being dealt in July 2022, and owns DH-caliber metrics at first base for his seven-year profession (1,059.2 innings, -8 RAA, -15 DRS). He went 0-for-15 with a stroll and eight strikeouts towards lefties in 2023, and has been totally helpless towards them for his profession (.129/.248/.215, 35 wRC+ in 323 PA). He’s by no means even tried a stolen base within the majors, a sensible alternative given his 2nd-percentile dash velocity. That’s not the simplest participant to suit onto a roster, and if Vogelbach does persist with the Blue Jays, he’s not prone to get a ton of taking part in time until issues go unsuitable elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the incumbent first baseman, and Toronto signed the righty-swinging Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal to function its main DH whereas recognizing throughout the infield, as he did final 12 months with the Pink Sox. Turner hit for only a 105 wRC+ towards righties (.273/.335/.430 in 462 PA) in 2023, however which will have been an aberration given his 132 wRC+ towards them over the earlier three seasons. He doesn’t want a platoon companion.
Given the scale of the position in query, it’s not tremendously laborious to know why the Blue Jays signed Vogelbach as an alternative of the 40-year-old Votto, who turned a free agent after 17 seasons with the Reds and who scuffled in 2023. Coming off of August 2022 surgical procedure to restore tears in his left rotator cuff and biceps, Votto didn’t make his season debut till June 19, and whereas he homered off Austin Gomber in his second plate look, he hit simply .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 homers in 208 PA. Save for his slugging share and barrel fee, neither that slash line nor his underlying Statcast numbers have been nearly as good as these of Vogelbach.
Joey Votto vs. Daniel Vogelbach, 2023
Participant
Occasions
EV
Barrel%
HardHit%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
Joey Votto
146
89.3
11.0%
39.7%
.202
.190
.433
.376
.326
.304
Daniel Vogelbach
194
91.7
9.3%
49.5%
.233
.225
.404
.397
.327
.323
The Blue Jays confirmed curiosity in Votto early within the offseason, with common supervisor Ross Atkins saying, “Unimaginable popularity, actually dynamic character, actually vivid (individual) that I do know our staff would embrace… However I feel that’s the case for in all probability 15 groups.” Based mostly on Votto’s background, he added a possible for “huge impression locally if he have been to be a Toronto Blue Jay.”
Regardless of the apparent attraction, nothing ever materialized, and within the wake of the Turner signing, we will infer that the Blue Jays could not have been prepared to supply Votto — whose 2022 manufacturing was underwhelming amid his shoulder woes — sufficient taking part in time. So far, it doesn’t seem that any staff has provided the right combination of alternative and cash. On January 11, USA In the present day‘s Bob Nightengale reported that three groups have been occupied with Votto, and in his Sunday pocket book just a few days later talked about the Blue Jays and Brewers as potential suits. The final report of a staff’s curiosity in him got here on January 24, when Heyman related Votto to the Angels. That very same day, Reds GM Nick Krall informed season ticket holders he had no plans to carry again the franchise icon. Since these sparkles of curiosity, the Blue Jays added Turner and the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins. In the meantime, the long run Corridor of Fame first baseman has popped up on the NHL All-Star Sport within the firm of Gritty and different mascots and quoted Dylan Thomas on Instagram, however in any other case, he’s been quiet on social media.
.@JoeyVotto is having the time of his life on the @NHL All-Star Sport ?
through joeyvotto/IG pic.twitter.com/hBSOQfUhCr
— Cut4 (@Cut4) February 3, 2024
The Blue Jays/Votto connection has at all times been extra speculative than substantial, however, just like the Vogelbach signing, it’s at the least fascinating sufficient to underscore simply how unremarkable Toronto’s offseason has been. Coming off an 89-win season during which it claimed the third AL Wild Card spot however made a fast two-and-through exit, the staff hasn’t made something that might be characterised as an impression transfer, even after exhibiting indicators of grand ambitions.
For a quick time, it appeared that the Blue Jays had received the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, however alas that rumor proved unfaithful. With the potential exception of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with whom they met earlier than he selected the Dodgers as nicely, nothing else they might have carried out would have been as impactful. However they at the least appeared to be considering large by exhibiting sufficient curiosity in Cody Bellinger to be thought of co-favorites (together with the Cubs) to signal him as Christmas approached, and he stays a free agent as of this writing. As an alternative, in late December, the Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier — a spectacular fielder however a league-average hitter who turns 34 in April — to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, presumably to be their common middle fielder between Daulton Varsho in left and George Springer in proper.
After which there’s Toronto’s strategy to its third base scenario. Matt Chapman hit free company after an uneven season that included a .255/.346/.449 (121 wRC+) line by August 12, when he sprained his proper center finger in a weight room mishap, and a .163/.250/.302 (54 wRC+) line the remainder of the best way; he initially missed three video games after struggling the damage, then 15 extra after making an attempt to play by it. The Blue Jays, who reportedly provided Chapman an extension north of $100 million over 4 or 5 years earlier than he reached free company, prolonged him a $20.325 million qualifying provide, which he declined. Like Bellinger, he stays a free agent whereas the Blue Jays have moved on. Simply after inking Kiermaier, they signed light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, then added Turner. Although he makes extra sense becoming into the utility slot vacated by Whit Merrifield, who not too long ago signed with the Phillies, Kiner-Falefa is at the moment projected to obtain essentially the most plate appearances of any Toronto participant at third base (231), with Turner, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Eduardo Escobar additionally within the combine. The 35-year-old Escobar, who started final season as Vogelbach’s teammate on the Mets earlier than being traded to the Angels, signed a minor league take care of a nonroster invitation final week; he’s trying to rebound from a dismal .226/.269/.344 (66 wRC+) efficiency in 309 PA.
Between Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, and Turner, that’s a not-so-grand whole of $38.5 million dedicated to free agent place gamers this winter, in need of sufficient cash to cowl the present-day worth of 1 season of Ohtani. Their different main league deal was for Cuban righthander Yariel Rodriguez — who spent 2020–22 with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, primarily as a reliever — whom they signed to a five-year, $32 million contract. After pitching for Cuba within the World Baseball Basic final 12 months, Rodriguez sat out the common season whereas establishing residency within the Dominican Republic so he might grow to be a significant league free agent. The Blue Jays intend to construct him up as a starter, however he would possibly wind up in Triple-A or in a multi-inning bullpen position as he begins his main league profession. In the meantime, the staff will roll with a beginning 5 of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah, the final of these coming off a dreadful season after a top-three end within the AL Cy Younger voting in 2022. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, no. 28 on our new Prime 100 Prospects Listing, might assist later within the 12 months, however has simply 36 innings above A-ball to his identify, whereas righty Bowden Francis is being stretched out to supply extra instant depth. Whereas they’ve been “quietly monitoring” the continuing Blake Snell market, per Nightengale, the Blue Jays have by no means appeared prone to spend large on beginning pitching this winter; as an alternative, they’ve targeted on enhancing their lineup.
Final week, Atkins stated, “At this level, additions that will be of significance would imply some stage of subtraction,” which didn’t sound like he was leaving the sunshine on for both Bellinger or Chapman. If this is kind of the Blue Jays’ roster, in accordance with Roster Useful resource, their payroll sits at $235.7 million by way of precise salaries, up from $214.5 million final 12 months, and $248.7 million for Aggressive Steadiness Tax functions, a hair forward of final 12 months’s $246.1 million and someplace between the primary and second tax thresholds ($237 million and $247 million, respectively). That’s the sport’s sixth- or seventh-highest payroll, relying on which determine you’re utilizing to rank them, so it’s not as if the Blue Jays are going low-cost.
Nor do they venture to be unhealthy. We now have them forecast for 83.5 wins, fourth within the AL East however a part of a good group with the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles; solely 4.6 projected wins separates Toronto from New York, the projected first-place finisher. The factor is, the Blue Jays are proper on the level the place including additional wins might improve their odds above their 14.2% likelihood at successful the division title and 47.7% likelihood to make the playoffs. Whereas their AL East competitors has added marquee gamers like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the tip results of the Blue Jays’ grand offseason simply seems like a sequence of half measures.