Let’s Examine Swing Path Diversity in the 2023 Playoffs

Within the cat and mouse sport that’s the postseason, each determination issues, no matter how large or small. If a marginal aggressive benefit may be exploited, odds are a workforce will take their likelihood. Final yr, I investigated what I assumed was a key cause for the Astros’ postseason success over the past decade. The piece explored swing path variety and the way Houston had extra of it than some other workforce from 2021 to 2022. Setting up a balanced, dynamic lineup is without doubt one of the instruments groups can use to maintain pitchers and opposing managers sincere. There are a number of methods to outline steadiness in a lineup, together with swing aggression, whiff tendencies, pace and athleticism, and handedness. However that piece targeted on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) inside lineups.

If you happen to aren’t acquainted with VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, the place 45 levels is a diagonal bat. It’s pitch top dependent – the quantity goes down as top will increase (flatter bat) and goes up as top decreases (steeper bat), making it fluctuate inside a participant’s personal swing profile. There’s additionally variance participant to participant. On common, Aaron Choose and Freddie Freeman have a lot steeper barrels at impression than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is considered one of a number of essential bat monitoring metrics — horizontal bat angle, level of contact, bat pace, acceleration, and time to contact are just a few others — however VBA is essentially the most simply accessible because of the pc imaginative and prescient work completed at SwingGraphs.

Due to this accessibility, VBA has been my go-to proxy for monitoring bat path modifications on a player-specific stage. Bat path has a strongest causal impact on whether or not or not a participant is an effective hitter, nevertheless it additionally impacts how pitchers decide sequencing and pitch choice. With that stated, let’s examine swing variety among the many playoff lineups, and specifically, these of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

To start, I took a barely totally different method to preprocessing my information this time. As I discussed, handedness performs an enormous function right here as a result of it’s a key think about how managers stagger their lineups. Two hitters can have the identical VBA, but when they’re of the other handedness, their path is totally different. To account for that, I took the inverse of all left-handed hitter’s VBA. Equally, I wished to account for switch-hitters. 72.2% of switch-hitter plate appearances got here towards right-handed pitchers in 2023. So as a substitute of taking the inverse, I multiplied all switch-hitters’ VBAs by -.722. Give it some thought as them being a lefty 72.2% of the time.

By way of who was in or out of the dataset, I solely included hitters on postseason rosters with at the very least one plate look. That basically solely considerably affected the Rays, who had been with out Luke Raley and Brandon Lowe. Lastly, I solely used VBA from the September/October portion of the common season. My logic was that what a hitter appears like in April may be totally different from September. Hitters undergo swing fluctuations, and I wished to have the newest illustration of their swings. For the calculation, variance continues to be the measure used to symbolize variety, however I’ve adjusted the quantity to be a proportion above or beneath common (of playoff groups solely), with the common set at 100, as with wRC+, OPS+, and many others. With that stated, I current VBAVar+ for playoff groups in 2023:

For 2 postseasons in a row, the Phillies have been the most efficient NL offense by wRC+. This yr, their team-wide 118 wRC+ was superb, a full 19 factors increased than their NLCS opponent, the Diamondbacks. The workforce doesn’t have any switch-hitters, however on each the left- and right-hand aspect, they’ve over 10 levels of dispersion. Trea Turner (29.0 levels) has the flattest swing on common amongst right-handed hitters, whereas Nick Castellanos (40.5) has the steepest. Brandon Marsh (41.6) has the steepest on the workforce, and Kyle Schwarber is 0.8 levels above Turner, making him the flattest lefty. There’s a huge variance of swing path on this lineup, and the Turner addition added a layer of variety that the 2022 workforce didn’t have. From a sport planning perspective, that variety is a nightmare in a postseason matchup.

Equally, the Twins and Dodgers have variance at the very least 10% above common. The Twins platoon technique considerably impacts this, however additionally they have hitters as steep as Edouard Julien (42.1) and as flat as Royce Lewis (25.8). Each are on the acute ends throughout all the league, not simply their very own workforce. On the Dodgers’ aspect, Freeman can also be excessive at 42.0 levels, and is balanced by flatter swingers like Jason Heyward (27.6), David Peralta (28.8), and Enrique Hernández (28.1).

As for the Astros, my piece final yr topped them the workforce with essentially the most swing path variety, so what provides? Effectively, there was a little bit of convergence of their VBAs in comparison with the earlier two seasons. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker’s swings converged nearer to 1 one other after being on reverse sides of the spectrum. Chas McCormick’s swing flattened considerably within the ultimate month after being nearly completely diagonal for many of the season (and final yr). Swapping their first baseman from the extraordinarily flat swinging Yuli Gurriel to a middle-of-the-pack swinger like José Abreu additionally introduced them nearer to the common. To be clear, these are nonetheless implausible hitters, however the convergence harm the benefit that they had constructed up in years previous.

Let’s now shift to essentially the most related a part of this dialog: the World Sequence matchup. The Diamondbacks and Rangers might not have the identical stage of swing path variety as different golf equipment, however there are facets to every workforce that make for fascinating choices by Bruce Bochy and Torey Lovullo.

The Diamondbacks 97.98 VBAVar+ mark is common, however there’s good steadiness right here from a handedness perspective. They run out two lefties and two switch-hitters every single day, then have a bunch of strong right-handed hitters. The limitation is that each of their lefties have extraordinarily flat swings. Corbin Carroll (28.3) and Alek Thomas (24.9) are on the shorter aspect, in order that is smart. Nonetheless, Lovullo has been very strategic in who follows these two within the lineup. Gabriel Moreno’s bat path steepened as his well being improved and made its approach to an above-average mark at 37.6 levels. Following up a flat swinging lefty like Carroll with a extra crazy hitter like Moreno (even when they’re separated by one hitter towards right-handed pitchers) forces a pitcher to vary their pitch choice. Nathan Eovaldi doesn’t considerably partition his pitch combine, however he’ll have to vary how he makes use of his four-seamer towards every of those hitters once they face off tonight. And plus, Ketel Marte will probably be sandwiched between these two and he has been on absolute tear.

Eovaldi will face the same subject when the Thomas-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. a part of the lineup comes up too. Gurriel’s VBA is available in at 34.9 levels; he had good success towards changeups and splitters this season and wasn’t nice towards heaters. This can probably imply Eovaldi takes a fastball-heavy method towards the left fielder. Nonetheless, if Thomas follows him within the lineup like he has beforehand, Eovaldi must instantly pivot his method due to Thomas’ success towards four-seamers this yr. He hit .309 towards them with a .384 xwOBA. It will be ultimate if Eovaldi might instantly get in a rhythm together with his splitter, however he’ll be compelled to combine issues up with this a part of the lineup. Nonetheless, it’s not all dangerous information for him. Tommy Pham and Christian Walker have lower than a level of VBA separation between them and are prone to hit behind each other. This will likely be a chance for Eovaldi to make use of the same pitch combine and particularly lean on his splitter since these two hitters haven’t had a lot success towards offspeed pitches.

On to the Rangers’ aspect of issues, Zac Gallen will likely be compelled to rotate handedness all evening besides towards Corey Seager and Evan Carter. That’s not a lot of a break! The 2 are separated in VBA by over 1.5 levels, and Seager is a breaking ball killer. As a result of its vertical orientation, Gallen’s finest pitch towards lefties is his knuckle curve, however Seager slugged .686 towards right-handed curveballs this yr. His knack for creating elevate on low pitches by adjusting his physique is dangerous information for Gallen. After Seager and Carter, he’ll then need to handle Adolis García, who simply continues swatting homers.

However the extra fascinating a part of this lineup from a VBA perspective comes when Leody Taveras and Josh Jung step to the plate. Taveras has a flatter swing; his VBA is at 29.6 levels. He maintains a taller posture all through his swing and doesn’t make any vital barrel changes. This will likely be a bonus for Gallen as a result of he can use his knuckle curve and changeup to maneuver underneath Taveras’ barrel. In different phrases, it will likely be about maintaining the ball down towards Taveras. The problem is that the identical zones which are Taveras’ weaknesses are literally Jung’s strengths. His loopier 36.9 diploma VBA steepens much more on low-middle and low-in pitches. His xwOBA in these zones through the common season had been .468 and .515, respectively.

That is the place staggering swing sorts can develop into a bonus. Going from an excessive weak point in a single zone to an excessive power back-to-back forces a pitcher to vary his bodily really feel and pitch method. Nothing is tougher than needing to execute a number of sport plans on a rotating foundation. But when Gallen is on the lookout for one thing to lean on, it’s that he can take the same method towards the flatter swinging lefties like Heim, Taveras, and Nathaniel Lowe. Since there isn’t a lot variety amongst these three, he might have a neater time getting in a rhythm within the backside half of the lineup. The important thing will likely be staying away from Jung’s scorching zones and never letting Mitch Garver cheat on the four-seamer since that was the pitch he ambushed so nicely towards righties this yr (.510 xwOBA).

As you watch this weekend’s video games, take note of these matchups, particularly how every pitcher is compelled to vary their pitch choice relying on swing paths. These groups might not be as extensively dispersed as others within the playoff subject when it comes to pure VBA variance, however there are lanes in every lineup that may power pitchers to dynamically execute totally different sport plans, one thing that’s a lot simpler stated than completed.