‘Thursday Night Football’ picks and open thread: Bears at Commanders

Discuss déjà vu.

Precisely 357 days in the past, the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears confronted off on Thursday Evening Soccer.

It wasn’t fairly.

To be truthful, final yr’s tilt between Washington and Chicago wasn’t as ugly as Amazon’s area objective exhibition between Denver and Indianapolis the earlier week, however that’s probably not saying lots.

The primary half of final yr’s recreation went like this: Punt, punt, interception, punt, turnover on downs, punt, punt, punt, punt, area objective, finish of half.

The second half was higher, however not exponentially so: Punt, landing, area objective, punt, punt, landing (courtesy of a muffed punt that was recovered at Chicago’s 6-yard line), turnover on downs, missed area objective, turnover on downs, finish of recreation.

Ultimate rating: Washington 12, Chicago 7.

Yuck!

In idea, tonight’s recreation must be higher, if solely as a result of it could possibly’t actually be worse. Proper? RIGHT? (Man, I positive hope I didn’t simply jinx this.)

__________

Alright, let’s put an optimistic spin on this . . .

Washington and Chicago each obtained blown out in Week 3 (by 34 and 31 factors, respectively), however turned issues round and performed a lot nearer video games final week.

Each groups misplaced, however solely by three.

Apparently, each of their losses had been barely controversial due to questionable teaching choices, and the occasions main as much as them:

In Chicago, the winless Bears had a 21-point lead over the winless Broncos within the third quarter, squandered stated lead, after which, in a tie recreation, going through 4th-and-one from Denver’s 18-yard line, Head Coach Matt Eberflus selected to go for it quite than asking his kicker to hit a area objective that wasn’t for much longer than an additional level.

Apparently, that’s the precise name – or, quite, it’s not the flawed name . . .

. . . analytically talking.

The play name is the questionable teaching choice.

A shotgun RPO . . . actually?

Yeah . . . Denver stopped them, kicked a area objective a minute later, then held on for the comeback win.

In the meantime, within the Metropolis of Brotherly Love, the 2-1 Commanders discovered themselves hanging tight with the undefeated Eagles. Trailing by seven, 24-31, with just below two minutes to play and just one timeout, Washington marched down the sector and completed the 10-play, 64-yard drive with a Sam Howell to Jahan Dotson’s landing go with no time left on the clock. Down one, in a hostile atmosphere, ‘Riverboat’ Ron Rivera opted to ship in his kicker and let the sport be determined in extra time.

That wasn’t essentially the flawed name with a younger quarterback and a drained offense, however it didn’t go over properly with Washington’s followers (or the media) provided that Washington received the coin toss (yay!), went 3-and-out (boo!), and watched Philly kick a area objective to win it.

Right here’s the related takeaway from these two recreation recaps: Chicago choked and gave up a 21-point result in a winless staff whereas Washington by no means trailed by greater than 7 factors towards the defending NFC Champions.

__________

Specializing in tonight’s recreation . . .

When Chicago has the ball, viewers will get to observe the league’s No. 21 offense face off towards the league’s No. 22 protection. Scoring-wise, it is going to be No. 22 vs. No. 29.

I’d say, “Benefit Chicago” however it feels extra like a coin flip.

On the flip aspect (see what I did there?), Washington’s No. 20 offense (No. 17 scoring) will face Chicago’s No. 28 protection (No. 31 scoring).

Benefit Washington.

__________

Rankings solely inform us a lot although; let’s take a look at yards and factors.

Yards:

When Chicago has the ball: The Bears’ offense averages 305.3 yards per recreation (186.3 passing; 119.0 speeding) whereas Washington’s protection permits 352.5 yards per recreation (230.0 passing; 122.5 speeding).

When Washington has the ball: The Commanders’ offense averages 307.8 yards per recreation (201.3 passing; 106.5 speeding) whereas Chicago’s protection permits 383.3 yards per recreation (267.8 passing; 115.5 speeding).

Factors:

Chicago is scoring 18.8 factors per recreation; Washington’s protection is permitting 30.0
Washington has put up 22.3 factors per recreation; the Bears’ protection is permitting 34.3.

Takeaway:

Each groups ought to look higher on offense than they usually do, and factors must be simpler to return by.

Or not.

__________

Right here’s one thing else to think about earlier than we get to the picks . . .

The Eleventh-overall choose within the 2021 NFL Draft (aka Justin Fields) has been sacked 17 instances in Chicago’s first 4 video games.

Sure, that’s lots (he’s on tempo to be sacked 72 instances), and it’s been extraordinarily constant: 4 sacks Week 1 (Inexperienced Bay); 6 sacks Week 2 (Tampa Bay); 3 sacks Week 3 (Kansas Metropolis); 4 sacks Week 4 (Denver).

Nonetheless, there are two quarterbacks who’ve been taken down extra typically than Justin Fields this season.

Certainly one of them is Daniel Jones, with the Seahawks gloriously accounting for 10 of the 22 sacks that New York’s $160M quarterback has taken this yr.

The opposite is Washington QB Sam Howell, who has been sacked a mean of 6 instances per recreation (24 instances complete).

The excellent news for Mr. Howell is that the Bears protection has solely bagged a quarterback twice this yr, which is the league’s worst complete.

Washington, however, is tied for seventh with 13 quarterback takedowns.

Mr. Fields higher watch his again.

Benefit Washington.

__________

Need a couple extra benefits for Washington?

The sport is at FedExField (all one phrase) in Landover, Maryland.
Washington has received 8 of the final 9 video games these two groups have performed.

__________

DraftKings Sportsbook , the official sportsbook companion of SB Nation, has the Commanders as 6-point favorites and I don’t see any motive to argue with that.

The Choose: Washington to win, Washington to cowl, Over 44-1/2 factors.

Let’s see if my fellow Subject Gulls writers and editors agree . . .