An Opening Day payroll of just below $249MM and a few aggressive acquisitions of star gamers meant that the Padres had been totally anticipating a championship in 2023, however San Diego has as a substitute posted solely a 77-79 file, and the season’s closing week begins with the Padres nonetheless in mathematical rivalry for a wild card slot by solely the faintest of margins. It has been an uncommon season in some ways at Petco Park, as such analytical numbers because the Padres’ +91 run differential (the tenth finest in baseball), their 7-22 file in one-run video games, and unfathomable 0-12 mark in extra-innings video games all recommend that the Padres would possibly merely be one of many unluckiest golf equipment in latest reminiscence.
Nevertheless, the group doesn’t appear to be writing off 2023 to only misfortune, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune experiences that the Padres are planning a distinct technique for subsequent season. This contains “participant commitments of round $200MM,” as Acee writes that the payroll minimize is “partially as a result of they’re out of compliance with MLB laws concerning their debt service ratio.”
Much less spending isn’t essentially an enormous shock, because the Friars have some huge cash coming off the books anyway by way of pending free brokers and several other contractual choices and should or will not be exercised. Nevertheless, what would possibly rely as eye-opening is the truth that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller won’t essentially be again, as “no selections have been made concerning who will probably be working or serving to to run the Padres’ baseball operations division past this season.”
Preller has been working the Padres’ entrance workplace since August 2014, a tenure that has consisted of an preliminary spending splurge for fast success that didn’t pan out, adopted by a rebuilding interval, after which San Diego’s present state of sky-high spending. The outcomes have been combined at finest, because the Friars have posted profitable information in solely two of the final eight seasons and in addition won’t attain the .500 mark this 12 months. The Padres’ two profitable seasons underneath Preller (2020 and 2022) resulted in journeys to the playoffs, with San Diego profitable a sequence within the expanded 2020 bracket earlier than falling to the Cardinals within the NLDS. Final 12 months’s playoff run noticed the Padres eradicate each the Mets and the arch-rival Dodgers earlier than finally falling to the Phillies within the NLCS — San Diego’s first journey to baseball’s closing 4 since 1998.
The inconsistency on the sphere may nicely be associated to what’s occurring behind the scenes. Final week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin printed an interesting have a look at the dysfunctional components of the Padres group, with loads of criticism directed in direction of Preller. As Rosenthal and Lin wrote, Preller’s “default setting of merely making an attempt to outwork the competitors, nevertheless, has not all the time sat nicely with managers, gamers, coaches and different crew officers….Many additionally criticize him for poor communication and an absence of really feel.”
This type of administration (or micromanagement, in his critics’ view) might need resulted within the revolving door of managers and coaches throughout Preller’s tenure, and there may be presently “a significant disconnect” between Prelller and present Padres supervisor Bob Melvin. This isn’t the one time that inner discord has been a public drawback in San Diego, because the membership’s collapse within the second half of the 2021 was largely attributed to a rift between the gamers and then-manager Jayce Tingler.
With such points surfacing for a second time in three seasons, it might be that possession has determined {that a} bigger tradition change if required, even when meaning firing Preller with three years nonetheless remaining on his present contract. Regardless of the Padres’ struggles this 12 months, there had been extra rumblings over Melvin being fired than Preller, particularly after crew chairman Peter Seidler gave Preller a full endorsement again in July.
Nevertheless, Acee notes that “the trail the crew travels in lots of issues is presently be being charted by extra individuals than regular, together with members of Seidler Fairness Companions,” as Seidler himself “stays concerned however not practically as intimately, as he recovers from a medical concern.” It might be that the opposite members of the partnership group are much less enamored with Preller than Seidler is, or it might be that Seidler (who’s the biggest single fairness holder within the crew) has determined himself {that a} change is important for the reason that Padres merely by no means bought issues circled this 12 months.
The Padres’ payroll has exploded since Seidler took management of the membership in 2020, and the chairman has been fairly forthright about his stance that elevated spending will translate into constant profitable. As such, a profitable crew and the next larger nationwide profile will result in larger revenues — attendance, merchandise, TV rankings, and so forth. — that may assist offset mentioned spending.
How sustainable this tactic is over the long run has been a looming query in San Diego for the final two years, and the debt service concern Acee referenced may point out that the Padres maybe noticed 2022-23 as their true all-in years earlier than having to inevitably scale issues again to some extent in 2024. Falling so drastically in an “all in” 12 months might be why Preller is now dealing with extra scrutiny from higher administration, and Acee additionally writes that lacking out on the postseason price the franchise at the very least an additional $10MM in playoff income.
Whomever is working the entrance workplace can have loads of selections to make, particularly with reference to learn how to deal with this upcoming payroll minimize. Roster Useful resource initiatives that the Padres have just below $128.5MM on the books for 2024, although that doesn’t embrace the arbitration-eligible gamers — most notably Juan Soto, who made $23MM this 12 months and can earn one other hefty elevate in his closing arb 12 months earlier than free company within the 2024-25 offseason. Whether or not or to not commerce Soto this winter, maintain him for 2024 and let him stroll in free company, or attempt to retain Soto by including one other main long-term extension to the Padres’ ledger are the first decisions dealing with the crew regarding the star outfielder.
Trent Grisham and Tim Hill are two different arb-eligible gamers with far lower cost tags than Soto, although Acee wonders if both might be non-tendered because the Friars look to chop prices. Acee additionally notes that “it’s nearly sure that” pending free brokers Josh Hader and Blake Snell received’t be retained, and the Padres face different questions with reference to retaining both Nick Martinez and/or Michael Wacha on two-year, $32MM extensions. Seth Lugo is probably going additionally headed for the open market slightly than train his $7.5MM participant choice for 2024.
Regardless of all of those portents of change, there doesn’t seem like any shift in San Diego’s general course, or their want to shortly return to rivalry in 2024. Not one of the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove, and others seem like in peril of being traded, as their bigger contracts ought to all be capable to comfortably match inside the framework of a $200MM payroll.
Nevertheless, whereas San Diego has loads of roster wants to deal with, the payroll discount may imply that the Padres received’t be practically as aggressive in pursuing top-level free brokers as they’ve in recent times. Buying and selling Soto could be one apparent means of unloading wage whereas nonetheless bringing again some (inexpensive) win-now assist for 2024, and the Padres would possibly nonetheless be busy on the commerce entrance slightly than trying to splurge on the open market. With all that awaits the Padres in what is perhaps one other newsworthy offseason, Preller’s destiny would possibly should be determined comparatively quickly, so {that a} attainable new PBO/GM can get shifting shortly on winter plans.
