Week 3 NFL Preview & Prediction: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

The Week That Was

A second week, a second nail-biter. It was fairly completely different in some ways to the week 1 win over the Chargers, however the Fins 24-17 victory over the AFC East division rival Patriots supplied the identical gall-bladder-in-throat feeling within the fourth quarter. All the identical, Mike McDaniel and the Fins made sufficient massive performs and overcame Invoice Belichick’s trademark, savvy changes to get one other win on the highway and get to 2-0 to begin the season. This additionally places me at 1-1 within the straight-up picks division:

On we row to week three when our Dolphins lastly get to offer some residence cookin’ to the visiting Denver Broncos. Let’s check out what the Ponies may need in retailer.

Current Historical past Overview

Since 2018, the Dolphins have solely performed Denver as soon as – in 2020. And any of us who do not forget that sport have been attempting desperately to overlook it, for a lot of causes. With out moving into the gory particulars, this was Tua’s fourth begin in his rookie yr underneath 2nd-year head coach Brian Flores. The Fins have been truly using a 5-game successful streak earlier than they went into the skinny air of Mile Excessive Stadium, the place Tua performed like he was huffing whippits between snaps. He received benched for FitzMagic, who practically pulled off a usually Fitzy wild comeback. Alas, the group got here up quick to Broncos head coach Vic Fangio’s stout protection, shedding 20-13. This was one of many earliest items of ammunition for excessive Tua skeptics.

This isn’t to convey up traumatic recollections for us – it’s extra to take a second to see how a lot the Dolphins have modified. There are solely 15 gamers from that 2020 roster nonetheless on the group, and your entire teaching workers has been fully overhauled at this level. Each Miami and Denver will function a number of acquainted faces however are in any other case markedly completely different squads in 2023.

Talking of Denver…

Denver’s Final Two Video games: Las Vegas & Washington

In week 1, Denver engaged in a drunken slap-boxing match at residence towards the visiting Las Vegas Raiders. It was a semi-back-and-forth affair marred by penalties (10 on every group for a complete of 180 yards). Russell Wilson’s passing stat of 27 of 34 seems actually good till you see that he solely handed for 177 yards – a tragic 5.2 yards per try – chatting with the check-down nature of the Broncos passing sport that afternoon. Weirdly, the Broncos did have three drives of 70 or extra yards, with the primary two leading to touchdowns. These have been each within the first half, which was by far the higher on the day for Denver. Within the second half, except for a 75-yard drive that yielded merely a subject purpose, they have been shut down. The ultimate insult was once they received the ball with 6:31 left and down 17-16, and capitalized on that by going 3-and-out after gaining a scant 7 yards earlier than punting. The Broncos’ protection fared higher, solely surrendering 261 yards to the Raiders’ offense, although it is a bit much less spectacular for those who noticed that Raiders offense get held to 240 yards the next week by Buffalo. Thus, Denver began 0-1.

Final Sunday, Denver received to play host once more, this time to the Washington Commanders. It began so effectively for Sean Payton and his group as they tried to rebound from the loss to Vegas. On the 7:57 mark of the 2nd quarter, Denver was up 21-3 and had simply compelled Washington to punt but once more. Then, the pendulum swung the opposite means. Onerous. Russell Wilson received sacked on the second play of the following possession, turning the ball over on a fumble. From that time, Denver would get outscored 32 to three over the following half-hour of sport motion, placing them in a 35-24 gap with 7:11 left within the sport. The Broncos scraped again into it with a plodding, 15-play, 65-yard drive that yielded one other 3 factors by way of subject purpose, giving them a slim hope with 1:50 left within the sport and down 35-27. True to Washington type, they obliged by going 3-and-out and punting. What adopted was the loopy spotlight that almost everybody noticed for the remainder of Sunday and the early elements of this previous week: with time expiring, Russell Wilson chucked the ball downfield and towards the heavens. When it got here down amongst a mosh pit of Washington and Denver gamers, it received volleyballed up, round, and ultimately into the determined fingers of Broncos extensive receiver Brandon Johnson as he stood ultimately zone. The Broncos capitalized on this miracle by fully wetting themselves and never getting the 2-point conversion, shedding the sport 35-33 and dropping to 0-2.

A couple of issues I took away from watching these two video games:

In comparison with final yr’s low bar, Denver is improved underneath Sean Payton, but it surely’s not good and it is perhaps some time till they’re. The roster is only a bit too talent-deprived to be persistently sturdy in any section of the sport proper now.
There’s a number of inconsistency on either side of the ball. The offense and protection will every look wonderful and even “good” for some quick stretches, after which look fully misplaced for lengthy intervals. In watching their first two video games, I couldn’t pick a single unit that stood out as being a part of any form of “identification” that the 2023 squad can hold its hat on. This was in stark distinction of their sport towards Washington, a group with points to make sure, however one that appears to depend on a defensive entrance that may be devastating a lot of the time. Denver does have some expertise on the WR place, however Wilson is but to fully gel with all of them sufficient for this group to be thought of a constant risk in that realm.
Russell Wilson. I’ll get into this extra later on this article, however he’s in an odd place. He’s nonetheless adequate to work some magic right here and there, however I felt like I used to be seeing a person adhering to the Pete “Maverick” Mitchell method: his ego writing checks that his physique can’t money. And proper now, the Broncos offense is Goose sitting within the again seat, ready to get lethally slammed into a cover due to their pilot’s unhealthy choices.

Dolphins vs. Broncos Unit Matchups

Dolphins Offense vs. Broncos Protection: This one bodes effectively for Miami. Of their first two video games, Mike McDaniel confirmed that he can design offenses that may win in very alternative ways. Shut down my working sport? Wonderful, I’ll let Tua and the stud receivers tear you aside. Take away the deep threats by dropping DBs again? Wonderful, I’ll gash you with Raheem Mostert and shorter, quick-hitter passes. The Broncos protection did stifle the Raiders in week 1, however that Raiders offense is mildly dysfunctional as of late (form of Josh McDaniels’ lowkey trademark, when not with the Pats). The subsequent week, they made Commanders QB Sam Howell appear to be Joe Montana throughout Washington’s 30-minute-long rating fest. The Denver protection was usually taking part in mushy in each the move and run, a number of occasions leaving receivers extensive open. So long as McDaniel doesn’t attempt to get too cute with the offensive playcalling, Miami ought to get nearly every little thing they need. Much more so if Terron Armstead is again at left deal with, as is anticipated. Benefit: Dolphins.

Dolphins Protection vs. Broncos Offense: Denver’s offense is quite schizoid proper now. They’ve proven flashes, but it surely’s principally a slog. They gave up seven sacks towards Washington, as a result of a mix of the Commanders’ sturdy D line, poor O-line play by Denver, and Russell Wilson’s tendency to carry onto the ball whereas he envisions hero throws and the TikTok movies that he’ll edit post-game. Whereas Miami’s D line doesn’t boast fairly as a lot expertise as Washington, they’re not far behind. They need to be capable of get loads of stress on Wilson for some sacks and compelled unhealthy choices. That mentioned, Wilson does nonetheless have the flexibility to uncork a number of spectacular downfield throws. That is about the one purpose they moved the ball final Sunday, as Wilson had completions of 60 yards, 53 yards, and the miracle 50-yard bomb on the finish (these 3 completions accounted for over half of Denver’s passing yards on this sport). Now, that final one was a desperation chuck right into a ton of site visitors that simply occurred to bounce off three Washington defenders, however the first two have been absolute dimes. These have lengthy been the kind of factor that Wilson lives for, and he can nonetheless do it a number of occasions a sport. Luckily, Miami has a greater defensive backfield than Washington, so I’ll be stunned if Wilson has such open targets to throw to. Whereas I fear a bit about Eli Apple’s propensity for committing move interference, Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou, and the lads ought to be capable of sustain with the Broncos’ receiving corps with out an excessive amount of stress. Benefit: Dolphins.

Teaching, Particular Groups, and Different Components

Teaching: It’s Sean Payton, who will doubtless find yourself a Corridor of Fame coach. He oversaw an excellent stretch in New Orleans, and he’s just about seen and executed all of it. His presence in Denver does seem like making them appear to be a barely extra useful NFL group, however even an incredible coach can solely accomplish that a lot with restricted expertise. Mike McDaniel, as we’ve seen the final two weeks, is proving to be a extremely formidable younger head coach. He hasn’t flinched towards robust, vastly extra skilled head coaches like Invoice Belichick. He additionally appears to be enhancing. Final yr, two of the obvious bugaboos have been penalties and clock administration. To this point via two video games this season, the Fins have incurred the ninth fewest penalty yards, and I haven’t observed practically the quantity of clock points that we always noticed in 2022. On high of this, Vic Fangio’s protection regarded much more like what we anticipated towards New England than what we noticed in L.A. in week 1. Sean Payton is nice and all the time loves mixing in some high-risk, high-reward performs, however I can’t see him outfoxing Miami in a means that suggestions the scales all that a lot. Benefit: EVEN/NONE

Penalties: I discussed the Dolphins rating of 9 within the fewest penalty yards to date. Denver? They’re one other story, rating twenty seventh in the identical class. They racked up 9 penalties for 58 yards towards Washington, and a whopping 10 penalties for 83 yards the earlier week towards Las Vegas. They’re merely sloppy, and Miami’s ability gamers on either side of the ball tend to pressure opposing gamers into penalties. Benefit: Dolphins

Particular Groups: Nicely, the Fins nonetheless have their points. We noticed the blocked subject purpose final week, because of Invoice Belichick’s ever-present particular groups wiles. On stability, although, the Fins are roughly common. Although Jason Sanders seems nothing like his 2020 All-Professional type, at the least he’s hit most of his subject objectives and he hasn’t allowed a kickoff to be returned. The punting sport isn’t nice, however at the least Braxton Barrios seems like a really sure-handed receiver again there who I’m not terrified will fumble the ball. Denver has truly been first rate in particular groups, although they’ve given up fairly a number of punt return yards – maybe an space the place Barrios can influence the sport. Slight benefit: Broncos

Accidents: Issues are wanting higher for the Fins now than they did again on Monday. Jalen Waddle exited concussion protocol and was in a position to follow on Friday. Terron Armstead was training, albeit in a “restricted” means, all week. Actually, it seems like the one participant more likely to miss the sport is Salvon Ahmed. It is a bummer since he regarded good towards the Pats, however the Fins have a number of different gifted RBs on the bench. The Broncos have been lacking a number of gamers on IR, however that’s been the case since week 1. Additionally, these gamers are all center to minimal-impact rotational items, new tasks, or particular teamers. The one notable absence shall be beginning free security Justin Simmons, one in all Denver’s few actually high-quality gamers. Big loss for them.

Different Components: Our Dolphins lastly get to host a sport for the primary time this season, although the South Florida climate could rear its head. As of writing, there’s a 60% likelihood of thunderstorms throughout sport time. I’ll attempt to assume optimistic ideas and hope that the climate is merely sizzling and humid, quite than a deluge. If nothing else, we received’t have to fret about oxygen-deprived Tua making a return (man, that looks like an eternity in the past). I’ve to assume that the Fins Trustworthy at Onerous Rock shall be giving our guys a rousing, hero’s welcome within the wake of their 2-0 begin on the highway towards strong groups. Pleasure shall be excessive, and possibly so will loads of the followers, in the event that they’re tailgating appropriately.

Prediction: Broncos 17, Dolphins 34

I used to be actually, actually near predicting a hands-down blowout. Nevertheless, I can simply see Russell Wilson connecting along with his gifted receivers on deep photographs simply sufficient occasions to stop this from being a laugher. Nonetheless, I see the Dolphins as simply having extra expertise in practically each unit. Sufficient expertise to exert their will on either side of the ball for almost all of the sport.

Now, if the skies open up and the rain begins to pour, it will likely be a really completely different sport. A sport, although, that may truly favor our Dolphins all the identical. The Broncos’ one saving grace is Wilson’s means to get these two or three deep photographs each sport – one thing that’s just about inconceivable in a monsoon. The rating shall be drastically decrease, but it surely ought to nonetheless be a strong Dolphins win if we get heavy rain.

That’s what I’ve received. What do you all assume? Do the Dolphins get off to their second consecutive 3-0 begin this Sunday? Drop a line within the feedback field.

Fins Up!!