“The Thing” About Alex Cobb’s Almost No-Hitter

Late on Tuesday evening, baseball followers everywhere in the world tuned their dials to the ninth inning of the Giants and Reds’ matchup in San Francisco. Via eight innings and 25 batters, Giants starter Alex Cobb had allowed only a single baserunner on a Casey Schmitt error, whereas setting down the opposite 24 so as. Within the ninth, Cobb sandwiched a stroll between two routine fly outs earlier than leaving a splitter over the guts of the plate to Spencer Steer, who crushed an opposite-field liner previous the outstretched glove of proper fielder Luis Matos to finish the no-hitter and the shutout. Whereas a splitter ended Cobb’s no-hit bid tantalizingly near completion, it’s additionally the explanation his try acquired that far within the first place. Even unbiased of Cobb’s good outing, his splitter made historical past in its personal method on Tuesday evening.

Earlier than going into the splitter, let’s discuss Cobb’s normal method to pitching. He’ll attempt to catch you off guard with a knuckle curveball on the primary pitch, hoping to steal strike one (9 of the 11 curveballs in his full sport have been on first pitches), however after that he virtually completely throws sinkers and splitters in near-equal proportion. These two pitches function equally – each leverage the facility of seam-shifted wake to maximise arm-side motion, lacking barrels and getting batters to hammer the ball into the bottom after they make contact. However a fast have a look at the plate self-discipline metrics exhibits his distinct objectives in using every pitch:

Like many pitchers who throw splitters, Cobb makes use of his as a weapon to get hitters to chase beneath the zone. He’ll get hitters into uncomfortable counts by filling the zone with sinkers, then throw a cut up that appears practically similar earlier than diving beneath their barrels. Splitters are fairly unusual within the majors – whereas 2023 has represented a peak in splitter utilization, they nonetheless solely signify about 2% of complete pitches. Whereas there are others who throw splitters, together with Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, and most notably former NPB gamers like Shohei Ohtani, Kodai Senga, and Shintaro Fujinami, what separates Cobb from the remainder of the pack is the sheer frequency with which he throws them. Up to now three seasons, he’s ranked first, first, and second in splitter utilization price amongst beginning pitchers, throwing them 38% of the time this yr. This splitter, dubbed “The Factor,” ranks second amongst splitters to Gausman’s in pitch worth since Cobb’s debut in 2011. The Factor isn’t simply Cobb’s principal secondary pitch, it turns into his solely secondary pitch in deep counts. And generally, he’ll make it his main pitch.

Cobb threw 83 splitters on Tuesday. For the reason that pitch monitoring period started in 2008, nobody else had ever thrown 80 splitters in a single sport. Or 70, for that matter. Heck, apart from a lone Brad Penny begin in 2010 with 66 splitters, nobody else had even thrown 60. Cobb’s shattering of the single-game splitter document wasn’t only a results of his pitch depend (his 131 pitches thrown is the best since Mike Fiers‘ no-hitter in 2019); he ranks behind solely Penny in single-game splitter share, as they comprised 63.4% of his complete choices. Even throwing 50% splitters in a sport is a uncommon incidence, although it’s unsurprising to see Cobb dominating that leaderboard as nicely. In reality, all 9 of his majority-splitter video games have come up to now two seasons:

Cobb’s splitter-first method on this sport provided many benefits over his typical plan of assault, which includes utilizing sinkers to arrange the splitter. The primary – and most blatant – could be seen from a fast look at his splits (no pun supposed). His splitter is a darned efficient pitch, main his arsenal in chases, swinging strikes, floor balls, wOBA towards, and total run worth. In case you have a pitch that may do virtually every part nicely, why not throw extra of them?

Second, this variation in pitch utilization was probably a results of advance scouting on the Giants’ half. Whereas the Reds’ offense is center of the pack versus sinkers, they rank thirteenth within the NL in wOBA towards offspeed pitches. One hitter who notably struggles towards offspeed stuff is TJ Friedl, hitting simply .167 with a 34% whiff price. Cobb capitalized on this weak point by throwing him 11 splitters in comparison with simply 4 sinkers, three of which got here on his first pitches of the sport. Friedl’s 0-fer introduced his line towards splitters to a measly 1-for-19. Reds hitters swung and missed 18 instances of their effort to muster up one hit, a season excessive for Cobb. Unsurprisingly, all 18 whiffs got here towards The Factor.

Lastly, scaling again the sinker in favor of the cut up has made the sinker much more efficient, particularly in taking free strikes when hitters have been anticipating a splitter to dive beneath the strike zone. Whereas Cobb’s surface-level outcomes have been shockingly constant up to now three years, posting ERAs within the mid-threes, he’s skilled excessive ranges of variance underneath the hood. After posting a powerful 2.80 FIP and three.15 xERA in his debut season with the Giants, his FIP has climbed by a full run and his xERA has jumped to a scary 4.64. Whereas he’s incomes fewer whiffs than earlier than, probably the most noticeable distinction from final yr is a close to doubling of his residence run price. Whereas it’s straightforward to level to an outlier HR/FB price and declare dangerous luck, his barrel price has spiked at a price proportional to the rise in dingers.

The sinker has regressed probably the most, permitting 9 homers to this point (in comparison with simply 4 final yr) and a .365 xwOBA, the best of any of his pitches. On common, he’s thrown his sinkers greater than every other season in his profession, stopping it from working its magic as a groundball pitch. And whereas a distinction of a pair inches could not appear important, just some mistake pitches can have an outsized impact on barrel and residential run charges. Certainly, his sinker’s Location+ has fallen from 105 to 102 over the previous two seasons, as greater sinkers are typically hit more durable and on a line. On this begin, he missed spots with each pitches alongside his arm’s path by the zone, however his capability to attract chases on low splitters stored him out of harmful hitters’ counts:

If hitters are doing extra injury to the sinker than they used to, then it’s in Cobb’s curiosity to get as few swings as attainable towards it. That is the place the splitter is available in. Batters considering of the splitter as the first pitch could hand over on choices that they anticipate to maneuver out of the zone, as a substitute watching them flutter over the plate, even when situated suboptimally. Within the seventh inning, each Steer and Elly De La Cruz took first-pitch sinkers within the nitro zone, setting the desk for a barrage of splitters chased outdoors the zone that led to a strikeout and groundout. Of Cobb’s 36 sinkers thrown, 17 have been taken for strikes, giving him the higher hand in numerous plate appearances. Whereas the typical hitter swings at about two-thirds of the pitches they see within the zone, Reds hitters noticed 23 in-zone sinkers and swung at simply six of them. Even after they did swing, not one of the balls put in play towards it had an xBA greater than .200. In complete, Cobb racked up 28 referred to as strikes on the evening, tied for the second most of any pitching efficiency all yr.

Main with the splitter allowed Cobb to maximise the strengths of his wipeout pitch, whereas concurrently shielding the weaknesses of his sinker. The synergy of his arsenal, together with added velocity, has introduced Cobb to a brand new profession apex at an age when many pitchers are in decline. And he’s doing this regardless of recovering from two main accidents and quickly shedding really feel for his signature pitch. But, his 3.20 FIP over the previous three seasons is the perfect stretch of his profession, and he’s not too long ago added his first All-Star look to the combination. Dropping a no-hitter simply two strikes away from glory could be heartbreaking, however he’s solely come again stronger from adversity earlier than. That’s simply The Factor about Alex Cobb.