The Oakland A’s haven’t been shy about calling up their high prospects this season, together with a slew of essentially the most highly-ranked younger gamers of their system. A lot of these prospects have already begun to sculpt the narrative of their early large league careers, to largely disappointing outcomes. Mason Miller dazzled in his first few outings, however was felled by damage quickly thereafter. Kyle Muller has bounced between the majors and Triple-A, with a meager mid-teens strikeout charge and an ERA above 7.00 at each ranges. Esteury Ruiz has been as spectacular as anticipated on the basepaths, however his Triple-A offense was a Las Vegas mirage that has dissipated within the majors. And whereas Ken Waldichuk’s stuff appeared noteworthy within the lead as much as the season, his stroll charge has ballooned and his fastball was at one level measured by Statcast because the worst within the league, at 16 runs worse than common. As of now, to borrow a phrase, he’s simply Ken.
This previous month has seen the promotion of three extra of Oakland’s promising younger prospects: Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, and Lawrence Butler. The latest of these promotions was Butler, who joined the A’s main league roster on August 11 after tamping down his strikeouts and discovering himself on an ultra-fast monitor (he began the season at Double-A). With only a handful of video games beneath his belt, it’s too quickly to learn a lot into his efficiency. Soderstrom and Gelof, in the meantime, each debuted in mid-July. And whereas Soderstrom is the extra extremely ranked prospect, his bat has been too quiet to make up for his strikeouts on the large league degree. As an alternative, it’s Gelof whose title is at the moment accompanied by a string of fireside emojis within the Baseball Savant search bar.
This isn’t the primary time that Gelof has displayed an affinity for outperforming expectations. As he climbed via the A’s minor league system, he by no means posted a line under league common regardless of being significantly youthful than the gamers round him. And whereas offensive numbers popping out of hitter-friendly Triple-A Vegas are by no means to be totally trusted (see Ruiz above), he’s continued that sample with the large league squad, to the tune of a 174 wRC+ to date as a 23 yr outdated. His velocity has factored closely into his efficiency, by means of each stolen bases and hustling further baggage out of bloop hits and defensive miscues. However most notable has been his energy, which has been nothing wanting explosive. Gelof’s hard-hit charge has climbed about 10% as a serious leaguer, and 20 of his 37 hits have been for further bases, together with eight bombs, which he has despatched out to all elements of the sector. The ability is especially thrilling, as that factor of his recreation is commonly cited as his most vital offensive query mark.
The pure subsequent query, after all, is how is he doing this? Has Gelof made an adjustment to his strategy? Has his swing modified in a significant means as a giant leaguer? And maybe most attention-grabbing: If his large league theatrics are a continuation of an extended monitor document of out-performing expectations, is it time for us to replace our expectations concerning his future?
As at all times, context is vital, and in Gelof’s case, additional investigation into the context surrounding his scorching streak throws a little bit of a moist blanket over these hearth emojis. Regardless of his on-paper energy manufacturing, Gelof’s underlying metrics make it tougher to purchase into his thump long-term. His exit velocities are fairly low towards something aside from four-seam fastballs, and his BABIP is on the excessive aspect, as lots of his hits have been extra of the well-placed than the well-struck selection. Most alarming, although, is his in-zone contact charge, which is within the low 70s, a number of factors decrease than any certified main leaguer this yr.
Here’s a chart of all of Gelof’s swinging strikes (together with foul suggestions) as a giant leaguer, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
Whereas Soderstrom is a really totally different kind of prospect than Gelof, they debuted on the identical day and have very related strikeout charges proper now. So let’s check out Soderstrom’s swing-and-miss chart as a way of comparability:
The variations between these charts are apparent, and based mostly on that alone, Gelof’s success relative to Soderstrom’s is a little bit of a shock. A mere look at their respective swinging strikes highlights the troubling in-zone points plaguing Gelof’s strategy, and searching again at his in-zone whiffs as a minor leaguer, it’s onerous to pinpoint any enhancements or changes in that space.
A better have a look at the place Gelof is making significant contact is illuminating. He’s considerably extra harmful up within the zone, together with his OPS on in-zone choices within the higher half sitting at almost double that on choices within the decrease half.
Right here’s a have a look at all of Gelof’s large league hits this season:
I feel his upper-zone proclivity is basically as a result of form of his swing and the way it interacts with the form of the pitches he’s seeing.
Right here’s a aspect view of Gelof’s swing, taken on the backfields final yr:
Right here, I’ve added a path to focus on the trail of the top of his bat:
The flatness of Gelof’s bat path is less complicated to note when in comparison with a swing geared extra towards energy. Fortunate for us, the video above was taken at a recreation that additionally featured Astros outfield prospect Zach Daniels, whose swing has drawn comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton’s as a result of its predisposition for energy. Since he performed in the identical recreation, now we have video from exactly the identical vantage level to match Gelof’s reduce to.
Right here’s what Daniels’ swing appeared like that night time, first by itself, then with a path:
For good measure, right here’s what the 2 swings seem like overlayed and aligned at dwelling plate:
And eventually, right here’s an overlay of simply the shapes created by their respective bat heads. This time, they’re aligned on the level at which they make contact, to get a way for the way every bat interacts with the ball, specifically the steepness of Daniel’s bat path, relative to Gelof’s:
The movies above are from final yr, however Gelof’s swing seems to be the identical now because it did then. Certainly, the flatness of his swing has been famous all through his minor league profession. Right here’s a have a look at what his swing has appeared like over time, exhibiting how little it has modified:
Up to now, I’ve described Gelof’s atypically flat swing as having a softball look to it. However lest that description be misconstrued as a dig towards Gelof (or softball), I’ll assert that his swing’s softbally-ness is precisely what explains the outcomes he’s getting with it.
The variations between softball and baseball are many, however one of the crucial basic, from a mechanics perspective, is the angle from which a pitch approaches the plate. In baseball, the mound and pitchers’ overhand deliveries create a downward angle in the direction of the hitter. In softball, not solely is the pitcher throwing from the polar reverse launch level (submariners however), however the area’s lack of a mound additional lowers that launch level such {that a} fastpitch softball supply creates an upward angle towards the plate. The flat swing usually related to softball is a direct response to this distinction in angle, as an uppercut is rather more tough to time towards the pitch’s upward trajectory. That is why baseball swings are onerous to adapt to fastpitch softball (and why baseball swings are sometimes simpler in slowpitch softball than fastpitch softball swings are, however that’s a dialogue for an additional time).
Now, to make sure, Gelof’s swing isn’t actually a softball swing. It’s simply that his non-existent load, flat bat path, and the dearth of pure elevate in his end mix to imitate the mechanics of a softball swing. It stands to cause, then, that upper-zone four-seam fastballs – i.e. the pitches he sees whose shapes finest mimic the standard form of a softball pitch angle – are those off which his swing is enjoying finest (seven of his eight dingers have been on four-seamers at or across the letters). It’s true he hasn’t but confronted most of the sport’s most fearsome ride-inducing flamethrowers, however his first large league dwelling run did come off of Houston’s Ryne Stanek, whose four-seamer has produced among the least downward motion throughout baseball this season (his fastball has simply seven inches of drop, whereas the league common is 15 inches):
It additionally sheds some mild on why Gelof struggles to make strong contact towards changeups and breaking balls with downward motion. His lack of uppercut requires him to increase his arms in a means that decreases the facility they’re producing as a way to cowl the decrease and outer elements of the strike zone:
So, to reply the questions I put forth above: No, Gelof hasn’t demonstrated any apparent changes to both his swing selections, or to his swing itself. Nonetheless, his outcomes communicate for themselves, although it’s onerous to not be skeptical about their long-term playability. As large league pitchers turn out to be extra acquainted with Gelof, it appears inevitable that these flaws will ultimately catch as much as him. If and when the facility dries up, or his weaker contact stops discovering unoccupied spots on the sector, Gelof could also be pressured to treatment his in-zone contact points, significantly within the decrease half. However for now, he can afford an ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it mindset regarding the strengths and weaknesses of his swing and easily get pleasure from his standing as a uncommon shiny spot for an in any other case bleak 2023 in Oakland.
