What does Jaylen Brown’s trade kicker foretell? Ask Blake Griffin

Jaylen Brown inked the biggest deal in NBA historical past final week. He’ll gather an estimated $304 million over 5 years as soon as it kicks in after subsequent season.

Apparently, although, Brown and the Celtics didn’t go for a participant possibility within the final 12 months –which might have allowed Brown to search for a much bigger deal one 12 months earlier. As an alternative, they settled on a commerce kicker.

A commerce kicker (formally known as a commerce bonus) is a stipulation in a contract that will increase a participant’s wage if he’s traded. Excessive-caliber gamers wish to have them as a result of it makes them more durable to maneuver, and compensates them extra if they’re.

The utmost and commonest share commerce kicker is 15%, which implies a participant’s wage would improve by 15% if he’s traded. Brown’s share is lower than that — simply 7%, in line with Spotrac. Nonetheless, it ought to make Brown more durable to commerce. Proper?

Not essentially.

One other latest Celtic, Blake Griffin, is aware of all about commerce bonuses. When he signed an extension with the Clippers in July 2017, he had one in his contract. It was value 15% of his deal, the utmost allowed for a bonus, exemplifying a long-term dedication between the franchise and the participant.

He was traded to the Pistons six months later.

In Griffin’s case, the commerce bonus may not have decreased the chance of a commerce, because the clause is commonly supposed. The Clippers nonetheless acquired fairly good worth in that deal for an usually injured participant, netting Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, and two picks (a primary rounder and a second rounder).

So, why didn’t the commerce bonus discourage shifting Griffin? As a result of it solely elevated Griffin’s wage by $215,000 in every year of his deal – lower than 1% of Griffin’s yearly wage.

Griffin’s deal was value simply $215,000 shy of the utmost he could possibly be paid in a season, which was 30% of the wage cap. Whatever the commerce kicker’s share worth within the settlement, the stipulation can not push the wage over that most share of the wage cap.

Brown’s deal falls beneath the identical class. He’s making the utmost he’s eligible for, no matter bonuses. The commerce kicker can take impact provided that his wage falls beneath 35% of the wage cap.

That may occur if the cap expands by greater than 8% yearly (keep in mind, these extensions improve by 8% every year; the wage cap often will increase by between 3% and 10%). If the cap improve is lower than that, his wage can’t improve with a commerce. If he’s traded in a 12 months with a giant cap improve, although, then he might see a pay improve of 1,000,000 or so every year post-trade. That enhance can be sustained all through the lifetime of the contract.

And simply that sort of 12 months could possibly be looming. A brand new TV deal anticipated within the subsequent few years is predicted to result in a significant wage cap enhance within the 2025-26 offseason. That occurs to be the season that Jayson Tatum’s extension possible will kick in and trigger severe wage problems for Boston. If Brad Stevens elects to maneuver Brown, it might very nicely occur throughout that offseason.

That offseason might be a dramatic one. Boston must determine whether or not to increase key gamers like Malcom Brogdon (if he’s nonetheless round) and Derrick White whereas navigating an enormous Tatum extension. Brown might be locked up for a number of extra years, however will have the ability to make a little bit bit extra money if he’s moved.

With that mentioned, Jaylen Brown is a franchise cornerstone. He’s – at instances – overshadowed by Tatum, however the Celtics’ entrance workplace possible will do all the things it may to carry on to Brown so long as he desires to be in Boston.

It’s additionally value noting that Brown can’t be traded for one 12 months after signing, so Boston must wait till late subsequent offseason — within the unlikely situation that they need to commerce him earlier than that.