Since coming into the NFL, Baltimore Ravens working again J.Ok. Dobbins has been one of the environment friendly gamers within the league. In Todd Monken’s faster-paced offense, is there a path for Dobbins to complete as a top-10 RB in fantasy soccer this season?
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Does J.Ok. Dobbins Have High-10 Fantasy Upside?
Dobbins is coming into his fourth skilled season however actually has only one wholesome marketing campaign beneath his belt. As a rookie, Dobbins opened the yr behind Mark Ingram however turned the lead again by the top of the yr.
Again in 2020, Dobbins scored a landing in every of his last six video games, by no means scoring beneath 13.1 PPR fantasy factors. Most impressively, he was a marvel of effectivity on the bottom, averaging 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie.
He tore nearly every part in his knee, costing him all the 2021 season. The damage was so extreme that Dobbins wasn’t able to go till Week 3 of the 2022 marketing campaign. However when he returned, he wasn’t fairly himself.
Lingering points from his knee damage resulted in one other surgical procedure, holding Dobbins out from Week 7 till he returned in Week 14. This time, when he returned, he was his standard environment friendly self.
It’s one factor to common 5.7 ypc. It’s one other factor to do it within the first yr again from a devastating knee damage. Dobbins is certainly probably the greatest pure runners within the NFL.
With all that stated, elite dashing potential isn’t sufficient to be a top-10 fantasy working again. For Dobbins to have any reasonable shot at a top-10 end, he wants a path to averaging no less than 16.0 fantasy factors per sport.
After returning in Week 14 final season, Dobbins nonetheless averaged simply 11.7 ppg the remainder of the way in which. Up to now, he hasn’t demonstrated something resembling a top-10 ceiling.
To find out whether or not a top-10 end is inside Dobbins’ vary of outcomes, we have to work out his path to doing so. There are two reasonable methods this may occur. Dobbins can both see better-than-expected utilization on the bottom whereas sustaining his effectivity, or he can see a rise in receiving work.
Let’s begin with the dashing facet of issues. Traditionally, the Ravens don’t give any working again greater than 50% of the snaps. Within the Lamar Jackson period, Mark Ingram’s 49.8% snap share is the very best any working again noticed. It’s value noting that he was in a position to end because the RB10 in 2019.
So, how did Ingram do it? Touchdowns. Ingram solely carried the ball 201 instances, however he scored 15 instances. My projections have Dobbins at 221 carries. With a bunch of touchdowns, that may very well be sufficient to get him there.
I solely have Dobbins projected for 8.5 touchdowns and 12.4 ppg. If we tack on 6.5 extra, matching Ingram’s 2019 quantity, that will get Dobbins to 14.7 ppg. Nearer, however nonetheless not there.
I even have Dobbins catching 22 passes for 139 yards. That’s solely 4 receptions fewer than Ingram had in 2019, however he amassed 247 receiving yards. That simply may be the distinction.
These receiving numbers have loads of room to develop. The Ravens focused the working again place simply 13.5% of the time final season. That was 14.1% in 2021. This isn’t a staff that throws a lot to working backs.
Moreover, final season, the Ravens ran the ball at a 51% charge in a impartial sport script. In addition they averaged 30.4 seconds per snap in a impartial sport script, the slowest tempo within the league.
If Monken’s offense options extra passes to working backs, permitting Dobbins to rack up 2-3 receptions per sport, that might propel him over the 16.0 ppg threshold and into the highest 10. So, it does seem as if there’s no less than a path for Dobbins to complete prime 10.
How Possible Is JK Dobbins To End Contained in the High 10?
On condition that my projections have Dobbins ending because the RB26, he has fairly a little bit of floor to make as much as get to the highest 10. He must outperform expectations as a receiver and within the landing division. And he wants to do that whereas sustaining his dashing effectivity.
Final season, 10.9% of Dobbins’ carries went for no less than 15 yards. That was the third-highest charge within the league. He additionally had a 43% evaded-tackles-per-touch charge, second-best within the league. And he did this all regardless of main the league in share of carries with no less than eight males within the field. He’s really a marvel of effectivity.
But when Dobbins’ ypc drops to the 4.5-4.8 vary, whereas nonetheless superb, that’s not going to be sufficient to get him into the highest 10. If Dobbins solely scores 10-12 touchdowns, whereas nonetheless superb, he’s obtained no reasonable shot at a top-10 end.
Finally, whereas we are able to’t rule out Dobbins as a top-10 working again, it seems to be a really low-probability final result and never one I might financial institution on forward of 2023 fantasy drafts.
