A group can get fortunate in a single sport. Hit a whole lot of contested pictures or catch a group on the again finish of a back-to-back and/or nursing accidents and you’ll run away with a win. Nevertheless, a seven-game sequence within the NBA Playoffs is a prize combat. You would possibly win a spherical right here and there, however normally, it’s the totality of all of the punches that may ultimately decide the winner.
Atlanta’s 11-11 report below Quin Snyder doesn’t precisely exude a ton of confidence heading into the postseason and even beating Miami in Miami within the play-in match would possibly say extra concerning the Warmth than it does concerning the Hawks. Nevertheless, you can begin to see Snyder’s affect on the offense. Think about this: by the point Snyder had transitioned Utah from Gordon Hayward to Donovan Mitchell, he reworked a middling Jazz offense into essentially the most environment friendly within the league final season and he’s already made enhancements along with his new group regardless of beginning so late within the 12 months.
Within the remaining fifteen video games of the common season, the Snyder-cut Hawks averaged essentially the most factors within the league at 124.1 an evening. Positive, they performed with tempo to generate extra possessions, but it surely’s not as in the event that they have been chucking up a bunch of three-pointers and getting out in transition. As an alternative, Atlanta excelled within the soiled work, the soiled work of combating for offensive rebounds and the “soiled” work of attending to the free throw line. In opposition to the Warmth on Tuesday night time, they grabbed 22 offensive rebounds to Miami’s 6 and went to the free throw line 27 occasions vs. the house group’s 20.
As spectacular as Atlanta was on offense to shut out the common season, Boston matched them on the opposite aspect of the ball. Even whereas treating the ultimate three video games as a little bit of a settle down from an 82-game marathon, the Celtics completed first in defensive score at 109.1 factors per 100 possessions; to place that into context, the Hawks have been twenty fifth at 118.5. It wasn’t precisely the stingy D that they closed with in 2022, but when protection wins championships, they’re clearly trending in the suitable route.
Pun supposed, a lot of the Hawks’ level technology comes from their one-two punch of Trae Younger and Dejounte Murray. To wit, they common simply over 16 of Atlanta’s 25 assists per sport. No one else averages greater than three; the Celtics have 4 gamers not named Jay meting out between 3 and 6.3 an evening. They’re the engines.
The Hawks aren’t precisely a “cross up a great shot for an incredible shot” group. They averaged the sixth highest tempo within the NBA and the fewest passes per sport. That just about appears not possible to do.
Atlanta in a nutshell. They’ll use Younger because the catalyst coming off a choose or attacking in semi-transition. If he or Murray get into the lane, they’ll shoot both a mid-range or floater. They’re third within the league in mid-range pictures (14.7 per sport). If the protection collapses and so they can generate an open three-point shot, they hit simply 34.7% of their catch-and-shoot threes (twenty seventh within the league) which places a premium on the offensive rebounding of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu.
To win 4 video games, the Celtics will counter punch with arguably one of the best defensive three-guard lineup within the league with Malcolm Brogdon, the defending Defensive Participant of the 12 months Marcus Sensible, and Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidate Derrick White. Despite the fact that Boston’s system relies on switching, anticipate to see them play in drop protection and go over screens in opposition to Younger and below with Murray and hold their defensive form.
Outdoors of Younger and Murray, Snyder doesn’t have loads in the best way of on-the-ball creators. They don’t run a whole lot of actions off the ball as a result of they don’t have a whole lot of motion shooters moreover Bogdan Bogdanovich. If the Celtics can keep principally at dwelling and keep away from giving open runways to excessive flyers like John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, and Jalen Johnson, they’ll neutralize their athleticism and switch them into shooters (which they’re not nice at) and weak aspect isolation threats (additionally, not nice at).
One of many huge query marks heading into Spherical 1 is who will spherical out the rotation for the Celtics. Presumably, they’ll begin their core 4 plus both Derrick White or Robert Williams — it’s almost definitely going to be White — after which Sixth Man of the 12 months candidate Malcolm Brogdon will come off the bench. That’s their top-7.
If Mazzulla leans right into a extra defensive id, the eighth man can be Grant Williams. With how a lot the Hawks pound the offensive glass, it is perhaps sensible to make the most of considered one of Boston’s most versatile defenders. With how a lot Atlanta goes to need to get the ball up and down the courtroom, a 3rd huge might be so as. We’d even be graced with a Blake Griffin cameo who was considered one of three Celtics (together with White and Hauser) to play in all three video games vs. Atlanta.
However with how nicely Sam Hauser shot the ball in opposition to Atlanta, it will be onerous to maintain him off the ground. In three video games in opposition to the Hawks, he shot a blistering 17-of-25 from behind the arc and averaged practically 18 factors a sport. A part of that’s unusual coincidence. A part of that’s the Hawks’ poor protection. Nevertheless, if the video games begin to flip into shootouts — the Celtics averaged 127 factors in opposition to them within the common season — Hauser’s your Huckleberry.
There’s the apparent disadvantage although. It’s virtually comical how a lot Murray and Younger focused Hauser on protection. Within the nineteen possessions that they stared him down with the ball of their fingers, they scored nineteen factors on 6-of-9 taking pictures and dished out two assists. Simply because the Celtics will choose on Younger on their offensive aspect of the ground, you possibly can guess that Hauser will get his justifiable share of ISO’s, too.
On Saturday afternoon, Boston open as 9-point favorites for Recreation 1 at TD Backyard. That’s the largest opening line for any first-round sequence with Bulls-Warmth and Thunder-Timberwolves undecided to date. The Celtics are a -1000 to win the sequence.
Our mates at DraftKings even have the Hawks-Celtics over/below because the second highest complete for any of the opening video games. Out west, they’ve pegged Warriors-Kings at 238.5. Within the common season, Boston and Atlanta mixed for 227, 259, and 234 factors. Recreation 1’s over/below checks in at 230.5.
Take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sportsbook companion of SB Nation.
