The Celtics are built for the playoffs, just ask our usual tropes

The tropes of playoff success are pushed into the psyche of each NBA fan advert nauseum by very good-looking podcasters and weblog boys alike. them and might in all probability recite them earlier than I do.

The sport slows down.

You need to care for the ball.

The refs swallow their whistles.

There are actually others, however I think about all followers can agree that these are the massive ones and with that in thoughts, I went out to my large Twitter following and posed this query:

I acquired an awesome response. Sure, there was just one response, however the content material was overwhelmingly useful. Whenever you take these stats and mirror again on the widespread playoff tropes above, you begin to see a correlation which lastly brings us to what this text is about. Is there a method to make use of stats to guage whether or not the Celtics fulfill the widespread tropes of playoff success? I hope so. In any other case, I’m losing a whole lot of my very own time and yours.

“The sport slows down.”

Related Stats: Halfcourt ORTG, Halfcourt DRTG, Offensive and Defensive PPP in isolation

When somebody utters the phrase “the sport slows down,” what they’re actually saying is that the simple baskets many groups feed off of in transition are merely much less frequent in a playoff setting. Offenses are extra cautious, they clear up the foolish errors, and they’re much less aggressive attacking the offensive glass. All this provides as much as playoff video games, particularly throughout crunch time, being performed at a slower tempo and within the halfcourt. It additionally signifies that as offenses attempt to restrict errors, they run easier stuff and find yourself moving into isolation possessions extra usually.

So, with the intention to consider how the Celtics may stack up in a slower paced setting, we’re going to take a look at two units of knowledge: how they fare within the halfcourt on each ends, after which how they fare in isolation.

First, the excellent news. The Celtics are monsters within the halfcourt. Per the geniuses at Cleansing the Glass (who filter out rubbish time of their stats), the Cs have the third finest halfcourt offensive score within the league at 103.4 factors per 100 possessions (that’s for those who filter out putbacks; for those who don’t, they’re nonetheless third at 118.3, however for the needs of this dialogue I’ll be focusing solely on the numbers the place putbacks filtered out).

The staff main the league in halfcourt ORTG obtained Kyrie’d and isn’t even going to make the playoffs (sorry, Mavs followers). Second is Sacramento with their traditionally good offense and a staff the Celtics are not possible to see within the playoffs. To place it in phrases even I can perceive, the Celtics are actually, actually good at scoring within the halfcourt.

Second, some much less excellent news, however nonetheless good. The Celtics’ halfcourt defensive score is a stable 97.5. That’s good for tenth (we are going to get to their rating together with putbacks in our subsequent part). There’s nearly actually some noise right here leftover from the early season the place the Celtics torrid capturing lined up a under common protection. Per NBA.com’s much less particular DRTG stat, the Cs have one of the best defensive score within the league since January 1st. In different phrases, I believe the Celtics are a bit higher defending their very own half than this quantity reveals. Thus far, so good.

Third, some kinda okay, some kinda not excellent news. When the sport slows down and offenses get much less artistic, you might have to have the ability to rating in isolation. The Celtics are fairly mediocre at that. That’s not precisely truthful; that suggests there’s some doubt to how mediocre they’re.

They’re the definition of mediocre at scoring in isolation as they rank precisely fifteenth in factors per possession. I assumed this was seemingly resulting from one participant bogging down the staff’s general common, and Sensible’s twenty fifth percentile on a single iso possession a recreation actually doesn’t assist, it truly seems their 3 most typical iso gamers are additionally profoundly mediocre as properly. Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum all rank between the 52nd (Brown) and sixtieth (Brogdon) percentile in factors per possession. The upside is that having three guys which are fairly good to respectable in iso signifies that certainly one of them will be capable to assault a weak defender (Jrue Vacation can’t guard all of them!), so there may be an argument that they’ll be a bit higher come playoff time.

Lastly, some unhealthy information. I received’t dwell on it as a result of I discover NBA.com’s defensive play sort knowledge to be wonky and inaccurate and since it makes the Celtics look unhealthy. The Celtics are twenty third in defensive iso factors per possession. They’re getting crushed when groups iso them, which is inexcusable given all the defensive expertise on this staff. The hope is that these points are largely effort based mostly and, thus, are merely an everyday season drawback.

Trope compliance: B+

“You need to care for the ball.”

Related stats: Turnover % and Defensive Rebounding %

After I hear “we have now to care for the ball” relating to the playoffs, I instantly suppose turnovers, and that’s actually a big a part of it. However as I started to suppose, and the out of form hamster that operates my cerebral cortex started to run, I noticed there’s one other facet of this: ending defensive possessions. If a staff is lazy on the defensive glass and offers up offensive boards, they aren’t valuing possession, and that’s on the very essence of caring for the ball. Therefore, we’re going to take a look at the Celtics’ turnover proportion and their defensive rebounding proportion on this part.

Ahh, turnovers, our merciless mistress from final offseason. The proverbial Snorlax blocking our path to a championship. I’ve flashbacks to Tatum and Brown driving proper into Draymond Inexperienced’s assist as three Warriors swipe down on the ball and dash the opposite route. Are we in for one more irritating turnover wrought post-season, or have we discovered our pokeflute and the trail is obvious?

I can definitively say that I’m unsure. The upside is that the Celtics rank a really stable seventh in turnover proportion, in order that they care for the ball significantly higher than a lot of the league. Final 12 months they have been thirteenth. Whereas that sounds nice, the gaps listed below are paper skinny. Final 12 months’s proportion was 13.9% and this 12 months’s 13.3%. Not an enormous distinction, however playoff video games are received on the margins, and even a slight enchancment can flip an in depth recreation your method. Maybe the regular hand of Malcolm Brogdon and the elevated comfortability of Derrick White can be certain the advance interprets to the playoffs.

Nonetheless, one place the place the Celtics actually excel at caring for the ball is the defensive glass. They’re first in defensive rebound proportion within the league. No one ends defensive possessions higher than the Celtics. Keep in mind that halfcourt defensive score above? Effectively, for those who embody putbacks into the calculous, the Celtics soar from the tenth finest halfcourt protection to the 4th. That’s extra prefer it. With Robert Williams getting more healthy and sure taking part in an even bigger load within the playoffs, I don’t see any cause it might’t keep that method.

Trope compliance: A-

“The refs swallow their whistles.”

Related stat: proportion of factors from free throws

You’re by no means going to consider this, however the Sixers lead the league within the proportion of their factors that come from the road. Stunning, I do know. The Pistons are second, which truly is surprising.

If any trope is true concerning the playoffs, it’s in all probability this one, except you’re Giannis Antetokounmpo. Truly, for those who’re Giannis, they do swallow the whistle, it’s simply to disregard the thirteenth offensive foul you dedicated that quarter.

Regardless, as we all know, the Celtics shoot a whole lot of threes. It in all probability comes as no shock then that little or no of their offense comes from free throws. They rank twenty sixth in proportion of factors from the road. That’s a little bit of a double-edged sword, sort of like Giannis’s elbows, because it means they in all probability aren’t attending to the rim as a lot as different groups. The Cs rank fifteenth in drives per recreation, so there’s some legs to that argument. That stated, the Celtics’ offense very a lot leaves their destiny in their very own arms: they both make pictures or they don’t. There’s no requirement that the refs truly name fouls when they need to.

The one hangup? Jayson Tatum. He’s the one man that will get a major quantity of his factors from the road, a shade underneath 24% (Derrick White is second at 16.6%). Are we apprehensive Tatum’s barely under common 3-point capturing might be compounded by an incapacity to get to the road within the playoffs? I’m not, largely to his improved ending by contact. It’s nonetheless actually one thing to trace, and it’s not prefer it’s unimaginable to get to the road within the playoffs. Simply ask Giannis.

Trope Compliance: A-

Like most issues, tropes are imperfect. However there’s fact to them, even when overstated at occasions. In the event you take a look at the widespread tropes concerning the playoffs, the Celtics positive appear to be one of the best staff in basketball. In the event you take a look at all the opposite methods we analyze basketball, like internet score or file or watching video games; properly, the Celtics positive look one of the best staff in basketball there to. Now, all they must do is exit and show it.