Earlier than I began at FanGraphs, most of my writing was concerning the Phillies. After I took this gig, I made a promise that I’d proceed to write down about my favourite workforce, joking that this was merely “yet one more place to gush about Rhys Hoskins.” I need to admit, this isn’t how I hoped to satisfy that promise.
On Thursday afternoon, Hoskins was manning first in a Grapefruit League contest in opposition to the Tigers. It was a contented day for Philadelphia, with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto making their return from the World Baseball Basic. The Phillies had been fielding what might have been their Opening Day lineup for the very first time. This wasn’t simply any outdated Thursday in March; it was an opportunity to see how the reigning NL champs deliberate to defend their title.
Issues acquired off to a promising begin when Schwarber doubled and Hoskins drove him residence within the backside of the primary. Woefully, the nice emotions wouldn’t final for lengthy. The next inning, Austin Meadows hit a high-bouncing grounder alongside the first-base line, and Hoskins turned to chase it into shallow proper discipline. He almost made the play, however the ball slipped out of his glove, like a scoop of ice cream falling from the highest of the cone. As he moved to retrieve the ball, he took a clumsy flip. One step later, and Hoskins was crumpled on the grass in ache:
It was instantly clear that one thing was unsuitable. Bailey Falter signaled for assist from the dugout as Bryson Stott referred to as for time. Each Phillie on the sphere got here to verify on their fallen teammate. Quickly, the paramedics would cart him away.
After the sport, Hoskins was recognized with a torn ACL. He would require reconstructive surgical procedure, and his 2023 season is sort of actually over; ACL surgical procedure requires six to 9 months of restoration time, which suggests the earliest Hoskins might return is late September. It’s attainable he’ll be again on the sphere in time for the playoffs, however it’s not one thing the Phillies can depend on. Even when he recuperates in document time, he received’t be at his finest, as it may well take a yr (or extra) for a reconstructed ACL to get well full power.
The optimistic subset of the Phillies fanbase will level to Schwarber, who tore his ACL in April 2016 and returned to motion in simply over six months, coming again in time to attain two runs, drive in two extra, and put up a .971 OPS within the World Sequence. The pessimistic crowd will level to Ronald Acuña Jr., who tore his ACL in July 2021 and was nonetheless recovering the next April. It might take him greater than 9 months to return, and even when he did, he didn’t look fairly himself.
The timing of the harm couldn’t be worse for Hoskins, who’s coming into his remaining yr underneath workforce management and goes to hit the open market this November; there’s a very good likelihood he would have been the perfect free-agent hitter accessible (non-Shohei Ohtani division). The 30-year-old slugger has a profession 125 wRC+ and has been an above-average offensive participant in every of the final six seasons. Once we put collectively our Positional Energy Rankings at first base, Hoskins and the Phillies got here in tenth, only a smidge forward of José Abreu and the Astros. Certainly, Hoskins had related projections because the Cuban veteran, who signed a three-year, $58 million deal this November, and whereas he doesn’t have Abreu’s observe document, he’s six years youthful, and the free-agent market subsequent winter goes to be skinny on impression bats. Hoskins in all probability might have earned himself the same deal to Abreu’s, maybe with an additional yr or two tacked on. Now, it’s way more possible he indicators a one-year “prove-it” fashion contract. If that’s the trail he takes, he’ll hit the open market once more in 2024, one other yr older and as a part of a a lot deeper free-agent class. No matter occurs from right here on out, he could have misplaced tens of tens of millions of {dollars}.
In addition to the monetary issues, this might be an awfully disappointing finish to Hoskins’ time with the Phillies. He will probably be ceaselessly remembered for his headline-making rookie season, when he set an MLB document with 18 residence runs in his first 34 video games. By no means once more would he make such a splash on the nationwide stage, however he has been a constant producer for the Phillies by good occasions and unhealthy.
Along with his efficiency on the sphere, Hoskins has developed a fame as a spokesman for his teammates, a frontrunner within the clubhouse, and an energetic member of the local people. He has all the time been recreation to take part in MLB promos and extracurricular actions, just like the Japan All-Star Sequence or an MLB The Present livestream match throughout the early days of the pandemic. He even starred in a sequence of delightfully corny GIFs that also pop up once you seek for a Phillies decal on Instagram:
To be clear, it’s no certain factor that Hoskins is completed in Philadelphia. In reality, his harm might even enhance the possibilities he returns in 2024. Given the sheer variety of ageing DH varieties already on the roster, the workforce was unlikely to supply him a multi-year deal. If Hoskins is prepared to simply accept a one-year contract, there ought to be room for him to stay round. All the identical, the long run is unsure, and I’ve to acknowledge the likelihood that the longest-tenured place participant on the Phillies won’t ever hit one other walk-off at Residents Financial institution Park:
So how will Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson exchange Hoskins and his 30-homer bat in the course of the lineup? There’s no scarcity of band-aid options, although every comes with its personal issues. Probably the most simple alternative could be to place Darick Corridor at first base. Corridor performed first within the minors and was already going to get loads of begins at DH this yr; with him at first, Thomson can rotate Schwarber and Nick Castellanos within the DH spot and use guys like Josh Harrison, Jake Cave, and even Scott Kingery within the outfield corners. Dropping Hoskins is a serious offensive downgrade, however at the very least the outfield protection will probably be stronger.
Sadly, Corridor has been dreadful in opposition to left-handed pitching all through his skilled profession. Throughout his 42 video games with the Phillies final season, he was given solely 12 PA in opposition to southpaws and picked up one hit with seven strikeouts. If the Phillies are going to depend on him at first, he’ll want a platoon companion, however the one right-handed hitter on the 40-man with any first base expertise is the 5-foot-8 Harrison, whose profession on the chilly nook quantities to a single inning there about three years in the past.
Thomson, then, will in all probability have to maneuver one other place participant to first in opposition to left-handed pitching. That may very well be Realmuto (with Garrett Stubbs catching) or Alec Bohm (with Edmundo Sosa overlaying third). Realmuto is a succesful first baseman, and he does desire to play first when he’s not behind the dish, however his catching abilities are too helpful to lose regularly. Meaning Bohm in all probability will get loads of time at first, which isn’t preferrred, as his glove was lastly beginning to enhance on the sizzling nook, although at the very least Sosa can play high-level protection in his stead. Kody Clemens is one other man on the roster with expertise at first, however he’s left-handed like Corridor. And in contrast to Corridor, he hasn’t had any success on the MLB stage, nor as a lot success within the minors. Clemens will present his supervisor with additional depth at first, however he received’t be beginning with any frequency.
If Dombrowski is unimpressed with the inner choices, he received’t be a lot happier with the remaining free brokers. The best choice accessible is Miguel Sanó, and I exploit the phrase “finest” by gritted enamel. He’s coming off a knee harm that restricted him to twenty video games final season, and his projections are uninspiring (106 wRC+, 0.2 WAR per our Depth Charts). On-field efficiency apart, the Phillies have lastly cleared their roster of gamers accused of violent assault; signing Sano, who allegedly assaulted a lady again in 2015, could be a step within the unsuitable route and an affront to the fanbase.
One other plan of action could be to attend to see if first basemen like Luke Voit or Yuli Gurriel choose out of their minor league offers with the Brewers and Marlins, respectively. The Phillies might use some veteran depth, however it’s debatable whether or not both could be definitely worth the 40-man spot he’d require. Making a commerce is an possibility, too, however Dombrowski would want to pay by the nostril to accumulate a primary baseman of observe this early within the season. C.J. Cron is likely to be accessible on the deadline, however the Rockies in all probability aren’t able to throw within the towel fairly but. Maybe the Reds would half with Wil Myers, however Nick Krall is aware of the Phillies are determined, so he received’t come low cost.
Dombrowski should resolve if a minimal improve is value a real commerce chip. And he may very effectively resolve that it’s! The Phillies are teetering on the sting of the Wild Card race, and their playoff odds are under 50%. They’d profit extra from a marginal improve than some other workforce, and the earlier they act, the extra useful that improve will probably be. However, Dombrowski may desire to attend. The increase that Myers or Cron would offer would actually be marginal in essentially the most excessive sense of the phrase, and the Phillies is likely to be higher off going with a platoon of Corridor, Bohm, and Realmuto within the early going and seeing how issues shake out. The offense will probably be worse — that occurs once you lose a bat like Hoskins — however at the very least the protection will probably be stronger.
Finally, there’s no straightforward resolution. What is evident, nonetheless, is that the Phillies are in an much more precarious place than earlier than. Defending their Nationwide League pennant was all the time going to be a tall activity. With the lack of their 6-foot-4 first baseman, the duty simply acquired taller.
