Breaking down the Brewers’ Keston Hiura dilemma

Hiura’s long-term place was one thing of an open query because of an elbow harm that required surgical procedure in faculty and left questions on his arm power even at second base. Nonetheless, his bat was so superior and his skilled CV was so sturdy that it didn’t appear to matter a lot. That rookie manufacturing and his minor league observe document recommended a participant whose offensive profile would match at any place on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout fee as a rookie was a pink flag, however strikeouts weren’t a difficulty in any respect till he reached Triple-A and subsequently the massive leagues. There was purpose to imagine that with extra expertise, he may pare again on the swing-and-miss tendencies in his sport. Given the 91.4 mph common exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit fee he boasted that season, the impression when he did make contact was substantial, even when he wasn’t essentially making contact on the common. A .402 BABIP pointed towards some regression within the batting common division, however Hiura appeared each bit the a part of a slugger who may flip in an average-or-better batting common with loads of energy.

That promising photos now looks like a distant reminiscence. Within the three seasons since he burst onto the season, Hiura’s strikeout subject has worsened. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season whereas posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists may maybe chalk that as much as a comparatively small pattern (59 video games) and the strangeness of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, however Hiura hit simply .168/.256/.301 with a fair worse 39.1% strikeout fee the next season. Whereas his bottom-line outcomes have been higher in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% fee final summer time.

Alongside the best way, defensive metrics have recurrently panned his talents within the area. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Final Zone Ranking (-14.1) and Outs Above Common (-12) all provide resoundingly detrimental evaluations of his 1,204 profession innings at second base. These metrics grade him as a median defender in 603 innings at first base. Hiura has additionally logged 40 innings in left area, however these days are probably behind him, given the variety of attention-grabbing outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer may all be a part of Christian Yelich and the currently-injured Tyrone Taylor within the 2023 outfield (as may third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio can be quickly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and each Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting choices on the place, he’s unlikely to spend rather more time there. A transfer to 3rd base appears out of the query, given issues about his arm power. Each Urias and Anderson are extra seasoned choices on the sizzling nook, anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would appear like a pure pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez, aside from the truth that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his massive league profession. He has batted .253/.332/.508 towards righties however simply .201/.283/.323 towards lefties. Even that stout manufacturing towards righties comes with a 34.5% punchout fee and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression might be so as.

As issues stand, Hiura seems to be like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, maybe with very occasional appearances at second base and in left area. It’s a restricted function to start with and it’s one that’s additional difficult by a dismal exhibiting this spring. Whereas spring outcomes don’t carry a lot weight, hitting .174/.269/.217 with 9 strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a tough three-year stretch within the massive leagues doesn’t encourage a lot confidence in a rebound.

Moreover, the Brewers have a number of right-handed first base choices in camp who’re merely outproducing Hiura this spring. Once more, we’re coping with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, however every of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted higher numbers than Hiura to this point.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 final season — comparable general manufacturing to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring exhibiting and might play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Not like Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has extra conventional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a giant begin with the Guardians in 2022 earlier than wilting and ending out the yr with a .243/.301/.351 exhibiting. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from final season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, however Miller’s 19.8% strikeout fee is lower than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is extra succesful at second base and has even been figuring out in heart area this spring.

Voit was additionally outproduced by Hiura on the massive league stage final yr, however his 31.5% punchout fee — whereas nonetheless ugly — nonetheless clocked in 10 proportion factors decrease. Voit has the larger observe document of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer exhibiting again in 2020. Accidents have sapped his manufacturing since 2021.

Maybe the largest factor working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league choices. The Brewers can’t ship him down with out first exposing him to waivers. It’s doable that the $2.2M wage to which he agreed whereas avoiding arbitration over the winter would possibly enable him to go by waivers unclaimed, however Milwaukee could not need to threat waiving a former top-10 choose and top-25 prospect solely to observe him escape elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller each have a pair of minor league choices remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, though he’ll reportedly have the possibility to decide out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit score, he’s a profession .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even final yr whereas hanging out an almost 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or higher. The standard of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact, nonetheless, is among the many worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout fee was the worst of the 317 batters who had a minimum of 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% general contact fee and 71.2% contact fee on pitches throughout the strike zone each ranked third-worst amongst that very same group.

All of it presents the Brewers with a quandary. They’ve a minimum of three right-handed-hitting options in camp who’re able to filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has extra defensive versatility, comparable latest manufacturing and is a extra pure complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has related energy upside, though he’s restricted to first base/DH and is 2 years faraway from being a legit middle-of-the-order risk. Miller doesn’t have the identical offensive upside however might need essentially the most defensive versatility and positively has the most effective bat-to-ball abilities of this bunch.

Milwaukee has a number of options to Hiura, whose commerce worth is minimal at this juncture in his profession. There’s comprehensible threat in parting methods with him and permitting for the opportunity of one other membership claiming him on waivers. However, on the identical time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with restricted roster flexibility whereas merely hoping for him to lastly hone his method on the plate after years of being unable to take action. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll probably be left to take action in sparse taking part in alternatives since he at present tasks as a bench piece within the occasion that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a troublesome spot for the Brewers to seek out themselves, and there’s probably no answer that’ll make them really feel actually comfy. Opening Day is simply over two weeks away, nonetheless, so a method or one other this may culminate within the workforce making a tough selection.