Lewis Hamilton’s transfer from Mercedes to Ferrari would not be described as “surprising” or “historic” if such transfers occurred yearly, and F1 is unlikely to see something prefer it anytime quickly. Not solely has essentially the most profitable driver in historical past joined essentially the most iconic workforce within the championship, however the official announcement additionally kicked off one of the vital intensive video games of musical chairs within the driver market.
Issues will not be fairly the identical in 2025, with lots of the key gamers – together with Hamilton – having secured locations the place they count on to stay for the following couple of seasons, protecting each the upcoming marketing campaign, which begins in Melbourne in a month’s time, and the primary yr below the revised rules in 2026.
All indications are that it is going to be a ready recreation this time round. However there’s nonetheless loads of intrigue surrounding 2027.
Ready for Verstappen’s subsequent transfer
Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing RB20
Picture by: Pink Bull Content material Pool
For a couple of weeks final yr, it appeared as if F1 was about to expertise one other earthquake virtually instantly after the one brought on by Ferrari and Hamilton. With Toto Wolff’s glowing reward of Max Verstappen and Pink Bull’s inside civil struggle triggered by allegations in opposition to boss Christian Horner, many within the paddock believed it was extremely doubtless that the Dutchman would transfer to Mercedes as early as 2025, and the well-documented conferences between Wolff and Verstappen’s camp solely strengthened that notion.
It was solely in late summer time that the Mercedes boss lastly gave up hope of signing Verstappen, and now it seems as if it could by no means really occur. It is price noting, nonetheless, that George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli have solely been confirmed by the workforce for 2025, suggesting Wolff could also be protecting the door open for the Dutchman.
There’s one other door that appears to be opening for Verstappen (if there are any closed for him in any respect) at Aston Martin. Studies of a “billion-dollar supply” could also be false – and the workforce itself has categorically denied them – however that does not imply discussions have not taken place at some degree, even when it is non-public conversations. Discuss of Aston as a possible future vacation spot for Verstappen did not begin simply now; it gained traction a lot earlier, most notably following the announcement of Adrian Newey’s arrival on the workforce.
Realistically, although, a transfer for 2026 nonetheless appears extremely unlikely as Verstappen is not ready to gamble – not less than not but. It would not make a lot sense to decide to such a transfer with out seeing what a Newey-led workforce, mixed with Honda, can obtain in 2026.
All the opposite prime groups appear locked in for the foreseeable future. It is arduous to think about Hamilton and Charles Leclerc not remaining team-mates for the following two seasons, and the identical goes for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Neither groups nor drivers have any actual purpose to vary.
Mercedes, in the meantime, appears to have sufficient confidence in Antonelli’s talents to not panic if he struggles in his rookie yr. With Russell already proving that he can win races when the automotive is fast sufficient, his younger Italian teammate does not essentially need to ship instantly.
What concerning the second Pink Bull seat?
Liam Lawson, Pink Bull Racing
Picture by: Pink Bull Content material Pool
The one seat that might doubtlessly develop into accessible at any second is the second Pink Bull seat.
Liam Lawson has an actual problem forward of him. For somebody with simply 11 F1 begins, sharing a storage with Verstappen will not be straightforward. But when Lawson’s fast job is just to do higher than Sergio Perez has executed for many of 2024, that is actually achievable. The larger query is whether or not the New Zealander can actually stay as much as the expectations of changing into a prime driver.
Pink Bull bosses have made mid-season driver modifications prior to now: Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly had been despatched again to Faenza halfway by way of the 2016 and 2019 seasons respectively. However in addition to demonstrating an absence of endurance on the a part of Horner and Helmut Marko, it is also a reminder that they’ve expertise of coping with drivers who aren’t fairly prepared for a prime workforce. This might work in Lawson’s favour, as he could also be given extra time – particularly as Marko and Horner do not seem too eager on selling Yuki Tsunoda to the principle workforce.
However one factor is for positive: it is virtually unattainable to foretell what’s going to occur if Lawson does not show to be a major improve on Perez.
Pink Bull may need a possible new star in Arvid Lindblad, who is because of spend a yr in Formulation 2, which might lengthen Lawson’s Pink Bull tenure. If the Anglo-Swede earns an F1 promotion with Racing Bulls, it might encourage Horner and Marko to take a wait-and-see method, no matter Lawson’s outcomes.
A doable wild state of affairs (though nothing appears too wild for Pink Bull in F1) might see Lindblad promoted to F1 mid-season if he proves himself in F2. In that case, he might even be a contender for a Pink Bull Racing seat in 2026.
Tsunoda’s stalemate
Yuki Tsunoda, Visa Money App RB VCARB 01
Picture by: Pink Bull Content material Pool
Tsunoda’s place can finest be described as uncomfortable. As soon as once more missed by Pink Bull, he is about to start his fifth season with the corporate’s second workforce and all indicators level to it being his final.
It could be fallacious to rule out the opportunity of Tsunoda finally incomes a seat in the principle workforce, however for that to occur, Lawson would in all probability have to provide an virtually unprecedented degree of underperformance. Tsunoda’s total F1 tenure with Pink Bull means that he will likely be thought to be their absolute final resort. And with the corporate ending its partnership with Honda, a possible promotion makes even much less sense.
At this level, there’s virtually nothing Tsunoda can do to impress additional. Beating Isack Hadjar will not do rather more than injury the younger Frenchman’s prospects – it actually will not enhance Tsunoda’s.
His long-term F1 future stays unsure. His identify was linked with each Sauber and Haas previous to his Pink Bull contract extension final summer time, however these choices have now disappeared. Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman will make up the Haas line-up for the following few years, whereas Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto are being positioned as Audi’s driver pairing for 2026.
With Honda changing into Aston Martin’s engine accomplice, a transfer there might be an possibility for Tsunoda, however there aren’t any race seats accessible in the intervening time. So his more than likely possibility is to finish up as Aston’s reserve for 2026 with the hope of a future promotion.
There will likely be two new seats at Cadillac, however even when Tsunoda is taken into account one of many candidates, he is unlikely to be on the prime of the brief listing. That listing presently consists of Colton Herta, Valtteri Bottas and Perez, though surprises are all the time doable.
Are there doable earthquakes?
Jack Doohan, Alpine A524
Picture by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Pictures
For now, the driving force market appears to be in ready mode. Most of the strikes made final yr had been already directed in the direction of 2026, and solely when groups and drivers start to have extra readability concerning the pecking order within the new cycle will the following spherical of musical chairs actually start.
One of many largest uncertainties within the coming months surrounds Jack Doohan. Whether or not the Australian can deal with the stress of Franco Colapinto’s presence at Alpine will decide not solely who begins 2026 with the Enstone workforce, but in addition who finishes 2025 in that seat.
For now, the variety of modifications between 2025 and 2026 is more likely to be minimal – however the driver market is quietly getting ready for extra frenzy in simply over a yr’s time.
On this article
Be the primary to know and subscribe for real-time information electronic mail updates on these subjects
Subscribe to information alerts
