In the event you’re a crew on the lookout for a bounce-back nook outfielder with a league-average bat, your search simply acquired just a little bit tougher. On Monday, Jon Heyman reported that the Orioles had signed Dylan Carlson to a one-year, $975,000 deal, and on Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Reds had signed former Oriole Austin Hays to his personal one-year, $5 million deal. Each gamers have been chosen within the 2016 draft, each gamers acquired traded on the deadline solely to be non-tendered after the season, and each gamers are projected to place up a wRC+ someplace between 93 and 102 in 2025. In a mirrored image of the uncertainty surrounding Carlson, a $25,000 incentive will elevate his wage to a cool million if he reaches 200 plate appearances in Baltimore. Hays’ deal has its personal $1 million in incentives, however the phrases haven’t but been reported. These are two small-risk, small-reward strikes, however context is vital. The best way we take a look at them relies upon a complete lot on the wants of the respective groups. Hays has extra upside, however he’s becoming a member of a Cincinnati crew that wants far more than a small reward as a way to be a contender. Carlson has a a lot trickier path to enjoying time, however he is smart as a depth piece in Baltimore.
Let’s begin with Hays, who has a historical past of huge league success beneath his belt and a a lot greater function to play in 2025. Regardless of a strained calf, he managed to place up a 104 wRC+ with the Orioles in 2024. After a deadline commerce to the Phillies, nevertheless, a hamstring pressure and a debilitating kidney an infection that went undiagnosed for weeks saved him to 85 wRC+ down the stretch, with zero walks in 80 plate appearances. Fairly than hold Hays for an estimated $6.4 million in his final yr of arbitration, the Phillies non-tendered him. Till the an infection, Hays had been very constant (and persistently common).
From 2021-23, Hays performed at the very least 131 video games annually whereas posting a wRC+ between 106 and 112. A sizzling begin to the 2023 season even earned him his first All-Star nod. Going ahead, nevertheless, his defensive limitations are going to maintain him in left subject and, in all probability, slightly below the two.0-WAR mark, even when his bat bounces all the best way again. There’s little doubt that his pull-side energy and lack of vary make him higher fitted to Cincinnati’s form-fitting left subject than the blousy Baltimore outfield he’s used to. Nonetheless, Hays is coming into his age-29 season, and whereas he may simply explode for 30 residence runs in his cozy new environs, it’s onerous to think about him surpassing his career-high 2.5 WAR from 2023.
What does Hays do for Cincinnati’s depth chart? Assuming he will get plugged in because the left fielder, he strikes Spencer Steer again to the infield. With Jonathan India in Kanas Metropolis, the Reds have been in critical hazard of merely having too many infielders slightly than their typical approach, approach too many. Nonetheless, now that Steer can rejoin Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and newcomer Gavin Lux on the grime, this infield is much more crowded than it was earlier than the India commerce. If Hays goes again to hitting like he’s able to hitting, he may symbolize an improve in left subject — not practically sufficient to make the Reds appear to be greater than a .500 ball membership, however nonetheless an improve. If he does something much less, he’ll mix proper into the underside half of a Reds lineup that Dan Szymborski not too long ago christened, “a large bucket of ‘meh.’”
Turning our consideration to Baltimore, it’s most likely too late to maintain dreaming on Dylan Carlson. Nonetheless, this transfer makes a variety of sense each for him and the Orioles. Carlson was a first-round draft decide by the Cardinals in 2016, and he finally rose to sixteenth on our prime 100 prospects listing. He struggled in his 2020 debut — although he acquired sizzling sufficient down the stretch that the Cardinals batted him cleanup of their three-game Wild Card Collection loss to the Padres — however put up a promising full-season marketing campaign in 2021. That season, he batted .266/.343/.437 with 18 residence runs and a 111 wRC+ throughout 149 video games, good for two.4 WAR and a third-place end within the Rookie of the Yr voting. After which he plunged right into a spiral of harm and underperformance. He made two journeys to the injured listing in each 2022 and 2023 for 4 separate accidents; he missed a mixed 29 days in 2022 with a hamstring pressure and a thumb pressure, after which in 2023, an ankle sprain and an indirect pressure value him a complete of 76 days. Whereas he was out with the indirect pressure, he underwent season-ending arthroscopic surgical procedure on the identical ankle he’d sprained earlier that yr. Throughout spring coaching in 2024, he sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder in an outfield collision with human mountain Jordan Walker. That harm saved him out for the primary 38 days of the season.
Carlson put up an xwOBA between .301 and .322 in each season between 2020 and 2023, and a DRC+ between 97 and 104 in each season between 2021 and 2023. When he returned from that shoulder harm, he wasn’t himself. In the event you don’t depend his 35-game rookie season in 2020, Carlson’s 2024 season featured profession worsts in stroll price, strikeout price, contact price, all three slash line stats, all of the wOBAs, hard-hit price, and, only for good measure, all of the superior defensive stats. He ended the season with a 67 wRC+, .209 batting common, -7 fielding runs, and -1.0 WAR. The Cardinals traded him to the Rays on the deadline, and the Rays non-tendered him after the season slightly than pay him a pair million {dollars} in arbitration. Now, the Orioles have determined that they like him higher than the $975,000 they used to have.
The projections see Carlson bouncing again to the league-average bat he was over the primary 4 years of his profession, and that’s presumably what the Orioles predict. Nonetheless, let’s take only a second to dream. We don’t understand how a lot pace and energy Carlson would have if he have been to lastly have the prospect at a full, wholesome season. His zone swing price and call price plummeted in 2024, and it’s a must to think about that had one thing to do along with his bodily limitations on the plate. Over the course of his profession, he’s acquired a stable .330 wOBA in opposition to fastballs, however Statcast places his run worth in opposition to them at -17, which speaks to an strategy challenge. He takes too many fastballs and whiffs at approach too many fastballs, however when he hits them, he has quite a lot of success. So why isn’t he on the lookout for them extra usually?
Between Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, and Colton Cowser, the Orioles have a beginning outfield. Between Heston Kjerstad, Daz Cameron, Jorge Mateo, and now Carlson, they’ve loads of backups too, and since they’re loaded with infielders, they most likely don’t have sufficient roster spots to maintain all of them in Baltimore. The switch-hitting Carlson nonetheless has three choices left, and it could make loads of sense to see how he appears to be like throughout spring coaching, hold him far-off from any notably mountainous teammates, and let him attempt to determine issues out in Norfolk to start out the season.
Carlson is now far faraway from his days as a prime prospect, however he’s nonetheless solely 26 and has solely as soon as reached 500 plate appearances in a season. He’s all the time run stable chase and stroll charges, and he confirmed a renewed capacity to drag the ball within the air final season. The Orioles are on a reasonably nice run in the case of growing younger hitters. This looks as if a low-risk transfer for them and touchdown spot for Carlson. Even when all he does is bounce again to being a league-average hitter and a mean left fielder, that’s makes him a helpful depth piece for a contending crew.
