The 2024 NFL season’s AFC Championship might be an epic, historic matchup between the convention’s high two contenders of the final half-decade. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (16-2) will host the Buffalo Payments (15-4) on Sunday night, kickoff set for five:30 PM on GEHA Area at Arrowhead Stadium. The winner will head to New Orleans, Louisiana, for Tremendous Bowl LIX.
The Chiefs try to turn out to be the one group in NFL historical past to make a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl after two earlier victories. The Payments wish to win the AFC title for the primary time because the 1993 season when a 30-13 dwelling win over the Chiefs despatched Buffalo to its fourth consecutive Tremendous Bowl.
The depth of this battle might be felt by the gamers and the followers: Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs Chiefs Kingdom to take it up a notch Sunday to “see how loud [Arrowhead] can actually get.”
The stage is ready for one of many largest video games in fashionable NFL historical past. Listed here are 5 issues to observe within the AFC Championship:
1. Patrick Mahomes taking what the protection provides
Mahomes might be scanning a well-recognized protection to him, however that doesn’t imply Buffalo might be predictable. Based on NFL NextGen Stats, the historically zone-heavy Payments attacked the Chiefs with extra man protection in Week 11, resulting in 18.2% of Mahomes’ targets qualifying as tight-window throws. That’s the second-highest mark in any sport of his this season.
On Sunday, huge receivers Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown might be key. If Buffalo challenges the Chiefs’ passing sport in the same means, the duo may have alternatives to make large performs down the sphere. It will likely be a matter of the connection going via: final week, Mahomes focused Brown deep twice for game-breaking performs, however neither was accomplished.
If the Payments again off, Worthy and Brown will nonetheless be vital in stretching the protection horizontally and vertically. With Payments’ beginning free security Taylor Rapp unable to play, rookie Cole Bishop might be attacked with velocity. Search for Worthy to get heavy doses of quick crossers and fast screens, taking the straightforward yards when Buffalo is comfortable in alignment.
2. Josh Allen vs. the blitz
This season, Payments’ quarterback Josh Allen completed with the third-best passer score versus the blitz, throwing just one interception and falling to sacks simply six occasions.
Like several of the really elite quarterbacks, it may be harmful to ship extra rushers at Allen and expose your self to an enormous play. Nonetheless, the Payments’ offensive line is constructed to counter pocket crushers and permit Allen time regardless: when going through 4 or fewer cross rushers within the common season, Allen had the fifth-longest time to throw within the NFL.
For defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, it’s about executing the blitzes on the proper time with a containment mentality. Allen is disciplined and can do away with the ball to beat the frenzy, and the Chiefs ought to belief the wholesome protection unit to make these throws troublesome.
It needs to be all about forcing a foul determination, which working not often is for Allen. He completed with the best speeding success price amongst beginning quarterbacks (66%) this season.
3. Trent McDuffie vs. Khalil Shakir
The first matchup to observe for the Chiefs’ protection entails cornerback Trent McDuffie persevering with to be a blanket in protection. Uncooked PFF information for “separation prevented” from the common season confirmed McDuffie because the chief amongst cornerbacks with minimal 200 main protection snaps.
He needs to be the precedence in protecting Payments’ huge receiver Khalil Shakir, the group’s chief in targets (100) within the common season. By way of two playoff video games, Shakir has 13 targets, 12 receptions, 128 yards and 5 first downs. No different Invoice has greater than 5 targets.
When the Chiefs blitz Allen, Shakir would be the go-to choice; he has caught 85% of Allen’s blitzed throws to him, with 255 of the 267 yards in these conditions coming after the catch.
This head-to-head would depart cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams to defend the perimeter in opposition to huge receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. How profitable Allen is when concentrating on the skin duo might make the distinction.
4. Jawaan Taylor versus Von Miller
The Chiefs’ offense received via an unpleasant efficiency within the Divisional spherical, with credit score on account of a ferocious Texans’ cross rush. Proper sort out Jawaan Taylor held up and solely allowed one hurry over 32 cross blocks.
The Payments don’t have the extent of expertise Houston threw on the Chiefs off the sting, however edge rusher Von Miller will look to offer Taylor comparable bother as Week 11: Miller earned a sack and a further stress over 18 rushes solely aligned over Taylor. Total, it was Taylor’s lowest pass-blocking effectivity price in any sport this season (PFF).
If Miller will be quieted, the main target will go to left guard Mike Caliendo. He might be challenged in holding the entrance of the pocket in opposition to defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones.
5. Turnovers and the run sport
Within the Payments’ win over the Baltimore Ravens final week, turnovers helped the Payments get right into a optimistic sport script and dissuade the Ravens from counting on the run sport. Baltimore working backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry.
The Chiefs fell into an early gap in their very own matchup with Buffalo this season, when Mahomes threw an interception after receiving the opening kickoff. It was the final sport the Chiefs dedicated a turnover, and that development persevering with might be very important in opposition to Buffalo, the NFL chief in turnover differential (+27).
An efficient run sport naturally helps in direction of a clear day on offense, and it’s clear working again Kareem Hunt ought to lead that cost. Final week, Hunt earned 24 of his 44 speeding yards after contact, gaining 12 yards over anticipated all through the sport (NFL Subsequent Gen Stats). Working again Isiah Pacheco rushed for six yards lower than anticipated.